Belarus' Neutrality: Why No War Entry?

While Belarus has supported Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, it has not joined the war. Despite allowing Russia to stage part of the invasion from its territory, Belarus has not sent its own soldiers to fight. Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has repeatedly stated that he will not send troops into Ukraine, and as of early 2023, the Belarusian Armed Forces have not been involved in fighting and have remained on their own territory. However, Belarus has provided logistical support, supply lines, and medical care for Russian soldiers, as well as access to military airbases and the launch of missiles towards Ukraine. There have been reports of Belarusian troops in Ukraine, but these have not been independently confirmed.

Lukashenko's denial of involvement

Despite Belarus's support for Russia in the war in Ukraine, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has repeatedly denied his country's military involvement in the conflict.

Lukashenko has stated that the Belarusian Armed Forces (BAF) would not participate directly in the war. He has claimed that there would be "no way" he would send soldiers to Ukraine unless Belarus was attacked first.

In early 2023, Lukashenko reiterated that Belarus would not get involved in the conflict, stating that Ukraine had offered to formalize this arrangement with a non-aggression pact.

Lukashenko also denied that Belarus had joined the Russian invasion, stating that no decisions had been made by him to send troops into Ukraine. He emphasized that without his decision, Belarusian military units could not be withdrawn from their barracks.

Despite Lukashenko's denial of direct military participation, Belarus has provided significant support to Russia, including allowing Russian forces to use its territory for the invasion and providing logistical support, supply lines, and medical care for Russian soldiers.

Public opposition to the war

Public opinion is a strong factor pulling Lukashenko away from direct involvement in the war. Only a third of Belarusians support Russia's war, while 93% oppose a potential deployment of Belarusian soldiers to fight in Ukraine. Just 18% believe that Belarusian soldiers would fight properly, rather than look for ways to avoid battle.

There are signs of rebellion within the ranks of the Belarusian military. Franak Viacorka, an advisor to exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, told the newspaper *Israel Hayom* that several senior military officers have resigned, fled the country, and contacted him and other opposition figures living abroad. According to Viacorka, there is a "high degree of demoralization" among both officers and conscripts. He claimed that many are "fleeing the country's borders en masse to any destination possible".

Viacorka added that there is "growing pressure from commanders of military units not to intervene in the fighting in Ukraine". There are officers who took sick leave, and others who have asked to end their contracts with the military. As a result of this opposition, Belarusian units have yet to enter Ukrainian territory, and units stationed adjacent to the border with Ukraine have been returned to their bases. "It seems the decision to involve the Belarusian military in fighting was changed as a result of pressure from top brass and the refusal by soldiers to fight," Viacorka claimed.

Opposition news site Charter 97 reported that most of the rank and file in the Belarusian armed forces "do not participate in ground military operations against Ukraine". According to the report, senior officers are telling the General Staff that if Belarusian forces enter Ukraine, "the lives of the officers will be in great danger, because the soldiers will take up arms against them".

According to Rosemary Thomas OBE, former British Ambassador in Minsk between 2009 and 2012:

> "Belarusian territory had the highest level of slaughter during WW2. They know what it's about. Ordinary Belarusians see Ukraine as a brother nation. They don't want war at all but especially not with Ukraine."

Similarly, Julie D. Fisher, US Special Envoy for Belarus, Ambassador since 2020, said that it is obvious that "Belarusians do not want their soldiers to fight, Russian troops to invade Ukraine from Belarus, Russian soldiers to stay in Belarus. The Belarusian people do not want decisions to be made for them from abroad".

Low morale and lack of combat experience

Low morale and a lack of combat experience among Belarusian troops have been cited as key factors in the country's reluctance to join the war in Ukraine. While Belarus has provided significant support to Russia, including allowing its territory to be used as a staging ground for the invasion and providing logistical and medical assistance, it has stopped short of committing its own troops to the fight.

According to reports, there is a high degree of demoralization among both officers and conscripts in the Belarusian military. Franak Viačorka, an adviser to exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, claimed that many soldiers were fleeing the country en masse and that there was growing pressure from commanders not to intervene in the fighting. Viačorka also noted that some officers had taken sick leave or ended their contracts with the military rather than participate in the conflict.

In addition to low morale, the Belarusian armed forces also suffer from a lack of combat experience and inadequate training. While Belarus has an estimated 45,000 troops on paper, no more than 10,000 are professionally trained and well-equipped, and even they are unlikely to be prepared for large-scale warfare. Sending these troops to fight in Ukraine would leave President Alexander Lukashenko without a reliable army to protect him in Minsk. This is a significant concern, given that Belarusian army units were needed to help suppress mass protests following the fraudulent 2020 presidential election.

The Belarusian military's lack of combat readiness was further highlighted by high-ranking military officers who anonymously told an independent news outlet that the Belarusian armed forces' deep belief in the prowess and superiority of the Russian army had crumbled in the face of Russia's losses on the battlefield.

The combination of low morale and a lack of combat experience and training has likely contributed to the Belarusian leadership's reluctance to commit troops to the war in Ukraine.

Covert help to Russia

While Belarus has not joined the war in Ukraine, the country has been a close ally of Russia and has supported its eastern neighbour in the conflict. In the lead-up to the war, Belarus allowed Russian Armed Forces to conduct military drills on its territory, and these troops remained in the country after the drills concluded. Belarus also permitted Russia to launch part of its invasion from Belarusian territory, providing the shortest land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. Additionally, Belarus has allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed within its borders, firing at Ukrainian targets.

However, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has repeatedly denied that his country's military has actively participated in the conflict. He has stated that he will not send Belarusian soldiers to fight in Ukraine unless his nation is attacked first. Despite this assurance, there have been several reports of Belarusian troops in Ukraine, with some sources claiming that they are fighting alongside Russian forces.

Instead of direct involvement, Belarus has provided covert assistance to Russia. This includes allowing Russia to use its military airbases and army installations to launch attacks on Ukraine. Russian military aircraft have used Belarusian airfields, and Russia has launched numerous missiles at Ukraine from Belarusian territory. From March to September, Belarus also supplied Russia with over 65,000 tonnes of ammunition, about 100 Soviet-era tanks, and approximately 20 armoured vehicles. Additionally, a former high-ranking homeland forces officer in Belarus has alleged that an equivalent of the Wagner Group, known as "Gardservice," has been established in the country. This group has reportedly recruited over a thousand former soldiers and is providing them with training, some of it conducted by Wagner mercenaries.

The covert support provided by Belarus to Russia in the war against Ukraine has been significant and has contributed to the conflict's progression.

The risk of political instability

Belarus has been a key ally of Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, allowing its territory to be used as a staging ground for the war. However, despite this support, Belarus has not sent its troops to fight in Ukraine, and there is a risk of political instability if it does so.

Public opinion in Belarus is a significant factor influencing the country's decision not to join the war directly. Only a third of Belarusians support Russia's invasion, while an overwhelming majority (93%) oppose deploying Belarusian soldiers to Ukraine. There is a deep-rooted aversion to the war among the Belarusian public, and joining the conflict would likely lead to a further decline in support for President Lukashenko, who already has low approval ratings.

Moreover, there are signs of dissension within the ranks of the Belarusian military. Reports indicate that several senior military officers have resigned, fled the country, or expressed their refusal to participate in the fighting. There is said to be a high degree of demoralization among both officers and conscripts, with many fleeing the country en masse. This opposition from within the military has likely contributed to the decision to keep Belarusian troops out of Ukraine.

In addition, the Belarusian opposition could exploit the situation and reignite public protests if the country joins the war. The opposition, led by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, is already supporting a network of volunteers ready for a mass uprising against the regime and "Russian occupation." A popular uprising in Belarus would not only threaten Lukashenko's rule but could also create political turmoil within Russia, eliminating one of President Putin's closest allies.

Furthermore, sending Belarusian troops to Ukraine would leave President Lukashenko with no reliable army in Minsk to protect him. The Belarusian army is relatively small, with limited combat experience and low morale. Sending them to fight in a large-scale war would likely result in heavy casualties and further erode public support for the government.

While Belarus has provided crucial support to Russia, the risk of political instability at home has deterred the country from directly joining the war. However, the situation remains dynamic, and a changing battlefield context could tip the balance towards intervention, with potential consequences for the region's stability.

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