Belarus' Ambitions: Understanding The Country's Future Trajectory

Belarus is a small country with a big problem. Since the 2020 Belarusian presidential elections, Minsk has become increasingly isolated from the West, and in February 2022, Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory. Belarus has been described as a vassal state of Russia, and its leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has been characterised as a tyrant and a dictator. But what does Belarus want? This is a complex question with no easy answer, but one thing is clear: the future of Belarus is inextricably linked to the war in Ukraine.

Belarus's relationship with Russia

Belarus and Russia have a complex relationship that has evolved over the years. As neighbouring countries, they share a land border and constitute the supranational Union State, with a 1999 treaty abolishing borders and establishing a common economic zone. Russia is Belarus's largest and most important economic and political partner, and both countries are members of several international organisations, including the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Eurasian Economic Union.

Historically, Russia has sought to maintain influence over Belarus, particularly after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In the mid-1990s, with Alexander Lukashenko's rise to power, Belarus appeared to be an ideal candidate for integration with Russia. This led to the signing of the Treaty of Friendship, Good-Neighbourliness and Cooperation in February 1995 by Russian President Boris Yeltsin, who emphasised the shared historical experience and close ties between the two nations. The integration process culminated in the establishment of the Union State in December 1999.

However, the relationship between Belarus and Russia has experienced tensions and setbacks. Vladimir Putin, who became the Russian President after Yeltsin, expressed dissatisfaction with the 1999 treaty and pushed for further unification. Belarus resisted, preferring to maintain its independence. Despite this, Belarus has remained a key ally of Russia, especially after the 2020 Belarusian presidential elections, which isolated Minsk from the West due to election fraud claims and subsequent crackdowns on dissidents.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has further complicated Belarus-Russia relations. While Belarus has allowed Russian forces to use its territory and even stated that Russian nuclear weapons could be stationed on Belarusian soil, there are conflicting signals about the level of support for direct Belarusian involvement in the conflict. Lukashenko has denied intentions to join the war, but he has also stated that Belarusian troops could participate if needed. Belarus's role in the war has damaged its reputation internationally and led to sanctions from Western countries.

Lukashenko's dependence on Russia for economic and political support has increased due to the country's isolation from the West. Belarus has sought economic assistance from Russia, including loans and refinancing of its state debt. Additionally, Russia's military presence in Belarus has raised concerns about the potential loss of Belarusian sovereignty.

In summary, Belarus's relationship with Russia is multifaceted and dynamic. While the two countries have a history of close ties and cooperation, there have also been periods of tension and disagreement. Belarus's dependence on Russia, particularly in the context of the Ukraine war and Western sanctions, has shaped its position as an ally and partner of Russia. However, the future of their relationship remains uncertain, given the complex domestic and international factors at play.

Belarus's involvement in the Ukraine war

Belarus has been a close ally of Russia in the war in Ukraine, with its involvement condemned by Western countries. In the lead-up to the war, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to perform military drills on its territory, and for Russia to stage part of the invasion from its territory, giving Russian troops the shortest possible land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. Belarus also allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory and shoot at Ukrainian targets.

While Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has denied sending his troops into Ukraine, there have been reports of Belarusian soldiers fighting alongside Russians, and of Belarusian troops being ordered to do the "dirty work" for the Russian forces, such as repairing damaged military hardware and cleaning vehicles of human remains.

In addition, Belarus has served as a crucial supplier of military hardware, munitions, and military components to Russia. It has also become a participant in Russia's psychological and informational operations, creating the impression of a potential second offensive from Belarus to put pressure on Ukraine.

Belarus has been described as a co-belligerent of Russia in the Russo-Ukrainian War, and its involvement has had a severe detrimental effect on its economic relations with Ukraine.

The future of Belarusian statehood

The country's future hinges on whether it will be drawn into the war in Ukraine, and the ability of veteran leader Alexander Lukashenko to maintain his country's independence. Lukashenko has, on numerous occasions, denied intentions to join a new attack on Ukraine, but has also stated that Belarus will respond to any incursions onto its territory. Belarus has allowed Russia to use its territory in the war and has offered assistance to Moscow, including hosting a contingent of Russian forces. Lukashenko has also requested security guarantees from Russia, signalling a desire for closer ties.

Lukashenko's crackdown on dissent following the disputed 2020 election has caused a shift in public opinion, with many Belarusians now viewing their leader as a figurehead of an occupational regime imposed by Russia. This has resulted in growing indifference towards Belarusian statehood, giving the regime more freedom to dispense with the country's sovereignty. The recent deal with Russia, which ceded control over indirect taxes in exchange for oil subsidies, may become a model for further trading of Belarusian sovereignty for short-term financial gains.

The war has also negatively impacted Belarus's economy, with the loss of key sources of income and markets for exports, particularly in the oil refining and fertiliser industries. Belarus is now left with Russia as the only significant market for its oil products, and Belarusian industries are facing steep declines in production and income, as they are crowded out by Russian competitors in the Russian market.

The impact of sanctions on Belarus

Economic and Financial Sector:

The sanctions have targeted Belarusian state-owned enterprises, revenue generators, and financial institutions. This includes restrictions on exports, such as timber processing, IT services, and cigarette production, which have traditionally been important sources of income for the country. The sanctions have also led to the loss of vital rents from industries like oil refineries, fertilisers, and gas. For instance, Belarusian exports of oil products to the EU dropped by 99% due to harsher sanctions. The country has also lost access to lucrative markets and transport routes, impacting industries like fertilisers, which relied on European and Ukrainian markets.

Transport and Logistics:

The EU has banned Belarusian transport companies from using European roads, dealing a severe blow to the country's transit industry. This has disrupted transit flows between Europe and Russia, resulting in significant financial losses for Belarus. It has also impacted smuggling and customs fraud schemes, which were previously controlled by businesses close to the government.

Political and Diplomatic Relations:

The sanctions have contributed to Belarus's increasing isolation from the West. The country has faced visa restrictions and targeted sanctions on government officials, including President Alexander Lukashenko. This has limited their ability to travel and conduct diplomatic relations with Western countries.

Military and Security:

Sanctions have been imposed on Belarusian military support to Russia, particularly in the context of the war in Ukraine. This includes restrictions on the transfer of military equipment, technology, and other related goods. The US has also targeted Belarusian networks and individuals evading sanctions and supporting Russia's war efforts.

Human Rights and Civil Society:

Sanctions have been utilised as a tool to promote accountability for human rights abuses perpetrated by the Belarusian regime. This includes abuses related to the suppression of dissent, electoral fraud, and the crackdown on mass protests. The sanctions aim to hold individuals and entities responsible for these violations and to pressure the government to respect democratic processes and human rights.

Overall, the sanctions have had a significant impact on Belarus's economy, political standing, and international relations. They have disrupted key industries, limited access to markets, and isolated the country from Western partners. However, it is important to note that the sanctions have also created opportunities for the country to strengthen its ties with Russia, leading to further economic and political integration between the two nations.

The role of Alexander Lukashenko

Alexander Lukashenko has been the president of Belarus since 1994, and his 30-year rule has been marred by allegations of human rights abuses and political oppression. Lukashenko's regime has been labelled \"the last dictatorship in Europe\" by Western media, with the president himself accused of being a war criminal by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the leader of the democratic opposition in Belarus.

Lukashenko's relationship with Russia has been a complex one. In the early 1990s, Belarus seemed an ideal candidate for integration with Russia, and in 1995, Russian President Boris Yeltsin signed the Treaty of Friendship, Good-Neighbourliness and Cooperation with Belarus. This eventually led to the establishment of a Union State between the two nations in 1999, which abolished borders and established a common economic zone. However, Lukashenko has consistently rejected the notion of Belarus formally joining Russia, even as the country has become increasingly isolated from the West due to election fraud claims and crackdowns on dissidents.

Lukashenko's charisma and understanding of the Kremlin's inner workings have been crucial in Belarus's ability to withstand Russia's growing appetite. However, the war in Ukraine has left Belarus in a predicament, as the country depends heavily on Russia economically and politically without enjoying the advantages of being part of Russia. This has resulted in a strained relationship between the two nations, with Lukashenko accusing Russia of using oil as leverage to procure an eventual merger and even threatening to cut diplomatic ties.

Despite this, Lukashenko has provided support to Russia in its war with Ukraine, allowing Moscow to use Belarusian territory to launch its invasion and stating that Belarusian troops could take part if needed. He has also offered assistance to Moscow during its military campaign and allowed Russian nuclear weapons on Belarusian soil. Lukashenko's support for Russia has led to widespread opposition in Belarus, with many Belarusians disgusted at their government's backing of the Kremlin's illegal invasion.

Lukashenko's future actions will be critical in determining the outcome of the war in Ukraine and the fate of Belarus itself. His ability to maintain the country's independence in the face of Russian pressure will be a challenging task, and the growing indifference of Belarusian society to its current statehood gives the regime a free hand to dispense with the country's sovereignty.

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