Zelensky's Belarus Trip: What Does It Mean?

In February 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected a Russian offer of talks in Belarus, stating that Minsk was complicit in the Russian invasion. However, he left the door open to negotiations in other locations. Since then,section relations between Zelensky and the Belarusian opposition in exile have been chilly, despite their shared opposition to Russian imperialism. In August 2024, Zelensky addressed the Belarusian citizens, urging them to wake up to the reality of Russia's attack on Ukraine, which was launched from Belarus. He emphasised that Belarus was no longer a neutral neighbour and that the country's leader had allowed Russian occupation.section In the same month, Belarus announced the transfer of troops and weapons to the Ukraine border, with Zelensky interpreting these actions as an attempt to help Russia and distract the Ukrainian command.

Putin questions Zelenskyy's legitimacy as Ukraine's leader

On May 24, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk. Following the meeting, Putin questioned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's legitimacy, citing the expiry of his five-year term on May 20, 2024. Putin asserted that the legitimacy of the Ukrainian head of state had ended and that Russia needed to be sure it was dealing with legitimate authorities.

Putin's comments came amidst Russia's ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022. Ukraine is currently under martial law, which prevents elections from being held during wartime. Zelenskyy has ruled out holding new presidential elections during the conflict, a decision supported by Ukraine and its allies. Ukrainian legislation bans elections during martial law, and amending the law to allow elections during a state of war would be necessary.

Despite expressing readiness for peace talks with Ukraine, Putin's questioning of Zelenskyy's legitimacy and the preconditions set by Russia, including retaining territory seized during the invasion, suggest a lack of genuine intention to negotiate. Putin also dismissed the significance of an upcoming international peace conference in Switzerland, which Russia was not invited to.

The timing of Putin's remarks during his visit to Belarus, a close ally of Russia, is notable. Belarus has allowed Russia to deploy troops and tactical nuclear weapons on its territory and has served as a staging ground for the war in Ukraine. The two countries have also conducted joint military drills involving tactical nuclear weapons.

Zelenskyy has rejected Russia's offer of talks in Belarus due to its complicity in the invasion but has expressed openness to negotiations in other locations. He has also urged the world to scrap Russia's voting power at the UN Security Council and condemned Russian actions as "genocide."

Zelenskyy rejects talks in Belarus

On 27 February 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected a Russian offer of peace talks in Belarus, saying Minsk was complicit in the Russian invasion. He left the door open to negotiations elsewhere, suggesting Warsaw, Bratislava, Budapest, Istanbul, or Baku.

Zelenskyy stressed that Belarus was no longer a neutral neighbour and that it had allowed Russian troops to use its territory as a launchpad for attacks on Ukraine, including the massive strike on Kyiv. He also urged the world to scrap Russia's voting power at the UN Security Council, saying that Russian actions bore signs of "genocide".

In his address, Zelenskyy compared Russia's attack on Ukraine to the beginning of Hitler's invasion of the USSR in 1941, when the bombing of Kyiv also began at 4 am. However, this time, he noted, the bombs were fired from Belarusian territory. He appealed to the Belarusian people, saying:

> "Make the right choice. I'm sure it's the main choice of your great people!"

Zelenskyy's rejection of talks in Belarus was influenced by the belief that Minsk was not a neutral party. This perception was shaped by Belarus's support for Russia during the invasion, including allowing Russian troops to stage part of the invasion from its territory and providing access to military airbases and installations. Despite Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko's assurances that his country's armed forces would not directly participate in the conflict, there were reports of Belarusian troops fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine.

The involvement of Belarus drew condemnation from Western countries, resulting in sanctions being imposed. Protests against Belarus's role in the invasion also took place within the country, although they were quickly dispersed.

Lukashenko allows Russia to use Belarus as a staging area

In May 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk. The two countries have increasingly close relations and foresee eventually forming a "union state".

Lukashenko has allowed Moscow to deploy Russian tactical nuclear weapons, troops, military aircraft, and missiles to Belarus, which shares a 1,084-kilometre (673-mile) border with Ukraine. In 2023, Russia moved some of its tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. Lukashenko has also permitted the use of Belarusian airfields by Russian aviation and allowed Belarus to serve as a staging ground for the Russian invasion.

Deploying tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus would allow Russian aircraft and missiles to reach potential targets in Ukraine more easily and quickly if Moscow decides to use them. It also extends Russia's capability to target several NATO allies in Eastern and Central Europe.

The two countries kicked off military drills involving tactical nuclear weapons earlier in May 2024. Belarus launched its maneuvers involving missiles and warplanes capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons on May 7, 2024.

Belarusian troops in Ukraine

There are growing concerns that Belarusian troops could join Russia's forces in Ukraine. However, this course of action would be extremely risky for both Putin and Lukashenko. While Putin has questioned Zelensky's legitimacy as Ukraine's leader and expressed willingness to hold talks about the war, he has not pressured Lukashenko to send troops to Ukraine. In fact, Russia has granted Belarus favourable loans and loan terms, and accommodated all of Minsk's requests, even on ongoing disputes. This indicates a harmonious relationship where both parties are content with the current arrangement.

Despite this, there are signs that Belarus is preparing for potential military involvement in the Ukraine conflict. Recent satellite images show newly carved forest roads leading to Ukraine's northern border and the movement of military equipment. There has also been an increase in trains transporting soldiers and equipment from the Russian border to the town of Brest in southwestern Belarus, close to the border with NATO member Poland. The Belarusian military has conducted a "counterterror" operation and snap inspections of troops, and Lukashenko has allowed the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons, troops, military aircraft, and missiles on Belarusian territory.

However, sending Belarusian troops to Ukraine would be a gamble for Lukashenko. He relies on the military and security services to maintain his power, and deploying them to Ukraine could lead to discontent and protests, especially if many soldiers do not return. Additionally, Belarusian society is overwhelmingly against the country's participation in the war, with more than 90% rejecting the idea of joining on Russia's side.

While the Belarusian army has conducted military drills and there is speculation about their potential involvement in the Ukraine conflict, it is important to note that they have not yet joined the fighting. Belarusian forces are also relatively small, with the most combat-ready segment not exceeding 15,000 troops, which is insufficient to significantly impact the war.

In response to the potential threat, Ukraine has taken measures to strengthen its northern border with Belarus. They have mined roads and fields, destroyed relevant bridges, and acquired modern Western weapons such as HIMARS anti-tank missiles to prevent troops from crossing the border. Ukraine has also conducted military drills near the border, practicing urban warfare, ambush tactics, and destroying reconnaissance groups.

Belarus hosts Russian nuclear weapons

In November 2021, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko offered to host Russian nuclear weapons, stating that he would invite Russian President Vladimir Putin to return nuclear weapons to Belarus that had been withdrawn following the Soviet collapse. This offer was made in response to the possibility of the US redeploying atomic bombs to Eastern Europe.

In March 2023, Putin confirmed that Russia was preparing to deploy nuclear warheads on Belarusian territory. He stated that this was in response to the UK supplying Ukraine with Challenger II tanks with depleted uranium cores, as well as Belarusian President Lukashenko's request to deploy Russian tactical nuclear weapons to the country. Putin added that training for Belarusian pilots to deliver nuclear weapons would begin on April 3, and that Russia would train Belarusian troops to prepare the systems and deliver the warheads.

In May 2024, Russia and Belarus began military drills involving tactical nuclear weapons. The Belarusian President has also allowed Russia to deploy troops, military aircraft, and missiles to his country, and has declared his readiness to host Moscow's tactical nuclear weapons.

The deployment of Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus has been condemned by the US, NATO, and the EU. It has been described as an irresponsible escalation and threat to European security. However, despite the international criticism, Russia has continued to move forward with its plans.

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