Belarus' Military Involvement In Ukraine: What We Know

Belarus's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war has been a concern for many, especially with the country's proximity to Ukraine's capital Kyiv, which is considered to be of major strategic value. While Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has denied sending his country's troops to fight alongside Russia, there have been reports and speculations that suggest the possibility. Lukashenko has allowed Russia to use Belarusian territory for military drills and as a launchpad for the invasion, and there are fears that he might be preparing to send troops into Ukraine, especially with the increasing pressure from Moscow and the ongoing joint military exercises between the two countries.

Belarus's army size and capacity to turn the tide of war

Belarus's army consists of around 60,000 people, including 50,000 soldiers and officers, with an additional 15,000 listed as military personnel. The military reserve that can be called upon in the case of mobilisation is 290,000 people, according to the 2021 Military Balance report. However, the number of troops that can be immediately deployed is much lower, with only 10,000-15,000 troops serving in the Belarusian Ground Forces day-to-day in peacetime. Belarusian military expert Yahor Lebiadok suggests that without mobilisation, the country could only immediately deploy around 6,000 soldiers.

Belarus's military is equipped with Soviet-era weaponry, including T-72, T-62, and T-55 tanks, MT-LB, BMP-2, BMP-1, and BMD-1 armoured vehicles, and GAZ-66 and KAMAZ-6560 trucks. Its air force operates Soviet MiG-29 fighter jets and Su-25 attack aircraft, as well as some older Polish-built Mi-2 helicopters. Belarus also possesses six Polonez 300mm rocket artillery systems, capable of launching high-precision missiles with a maximum firing range of 200km.

In terms of turning the tide of the war in Ukraine, Belarus's military capacity and potential for mobilisation are limited. While it has allowed Russia to use its territory to stage attacks on Ukraine and has conducted joint military drills with Russian forces, Belarus has not committed its own troops to fight in Ukraine. There is significant domestic opposition to the idea of Belarusian troops fighting in Ukraine, and the Belarusian army lacks combat experience. The only branch of the Belarusian military with proper combat experience is the Special Operations Forces, which have a total of 3,000-6,000 soldiers.

In summary, while Belarus has a sizeable military on paper, the number of troops it can immediately deploy is relatively small, and its equipment is largely outdated. Domestic opposition to involvement in the Ukraine war and lack of combat experience further limit its capacity to turn the tide of the war.

The public opinion of Belarusians on the war

The majority of Belarusians believe their country should declare neutrality and expel all foreign troops. Measuring public opinion in Belarus is challenging as independent sociological polls are banned, and studies have to rely on telephone and internet interviews. Many Belarusians do not feel safe expressing their political views due to the risk of arrest and state repression.

Despite the anti-war sentiment, Belarus has played a role in Russia's war. Belarus allowed Russia to launch its full-scale invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory and has served as a base for Russian military operations. Belarus has also become a crucial supplier of military hardware, munitions, and components to Russia.

In October 2022, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko ordered troops to deploy with Russian forces near Ukraine, citing a potential threat from Kyiv and its backers in the West. This move indicated a potential escalation of the war, possibly with a combined Russian-Belarusian joint force in northern Ukraine. Lukashenko's decision-making is influenced by his regime's dependence on the Kremlin following Minsk's international isolation after the 2020-2021 mass protests.

However, the prospect of sending Belarusian troops to Ukraine is deeply unpopular and could threaten Lukashenko's hold on power. Belarusians have a strong anti-war mentality, shaped by the collective memory of WWII, which cost Belarus a significant share of its population. This collective memory remains a crucial aspect of Belarusian national identity.

While Belarusians overwhelmingly oppose the war, a small number have volunteered to fight alongside Ukraine. Several hundred Belarusian volunteers have joined the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and others have engaged in partisan tactics to disrupt the railway movement of Russian military supplies and troops heading toward Ukraine.

The potential consequences of Belarus joining the war

Belarus's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war has been limited to allowing Russia to launch its invasion from Belarus's territory, providing Russia with military hardware, munitions, and components, and participating in Russia's psychological and informational operations. However, if Belarus were to join the war more directly by sending soldiers to fight alongside Russia, there could be several potential consequences.

Firstly, the war could escalate as a result of Belarus's involvement. Alexander Lukashenko, the President of Belarus, has himself stated that even if Belarus were to get involved in the war, it would be a path to escalation. The presence of Belarusian soldiers in Ukraine could lead to the deployment of NATO troops in Ukraine, as Lukashenko acknowledged in an interview with the BBC. This could lead to a wider conflict and further loss of life on all sides.

Secondly, Belarus's participation in the war could have domestic consequences. According to Chatham House, 79% of Belarusians find the death of Belarusian soldiers during the war unacceptable, and more than 50% believe that Belarus should remain neutral. A deployment of Belarusian soldiers to fight in the war would represent a break with Lukashenko's cornerstone ideology of peace and stability, and it could lead to a loss of support for Lukashenko and potentially even unrest or mutiny within the Belarusian military.

Thirdly, Belarus's involvement in the war could have economic consequences. Ukraine has already divested from strategically important Belarusian imports, particularly petroleum products, in response to Belarus's role in the Russian invasion. If Belarus were to become more directly involved in the war, Ukraine and its allies could impose further economic sanctions on Belarus, damaging its economy.

Finally, Belarus's involvement in the war could have diplomatic consequences. Belarus's participation in the war could lead to further condemnation and isolation from Western countries, such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union, which have already imposed sanctions on Belarus for its role in the conflict. Belarus could also face consequences in its relations with Ukraine, which has so far maintained diplomatic relations with Belarus for practical reasons, despite the severe deterioration in bilateral relations since the start of the war.

The role of Belarus in the initial invasion

Belarus, a close ally of Russia, has supported its eastern neighbour in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the initial stages of the conflict, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to perform military drills on its territory. However, these troops did not leave after the drills ended, and Belarus allowed Russia to stage part of the invasion from its territory, providing the shortest land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv.

Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has denied sending his country's troops into Ukraine, and as of early 2023, the Belarusian Armed Forces (BAF) have not been involved in fighting. Lukashenko has stated that he will not send soldiers into Ukraine unless his country is attacked first. However, there have been several reports from the Belarusian opposition and the Ukrainian military that Belarusian troops are fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine.

In the early days of the invasion, Belarus was also involved in peace initiatives, holding Russo-Ukrainian talks on its border. Despite some preliminary agreements, the talks did not result in a lasting ceasefire.

The involvement of Belarus in the Russian invasion has been condemned by Western countries, with the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan imposing sanctions. According to polls, Belarusian society is overwhelmingly against the country's participation in the war, and public opinion largely supports neutrality.

The relationship between Putin and Lukashenko

Lukashenko has allowed Putin's troops to enter Belarus and use the country as a base for attacks on Ukraine. In February 2022, Russia's invasion of Ukraine was launched, in part, from Belarusian territory. Russian troops were allowed to perform weeks-long military drills in Belarus, and they did not leave the country as scheduled. Belarus also allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory to shoot at Ukrainian targets.

Lukashenko has denied that Belarusian troops have been involved in the conflict, stating that they would only be sent into Ukraine if Belarus was attacked first. However, there have been several reports of Belarusian soldiers fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine.

In October 2024, Lukashenko ordered Belarusian troops to join Russian forces near Ukraine, claiming that Kyiv posed a threat to Belarus. This move indicated a potential escalation of the war, with the possibility of a combined Russian-Belarusian joint force in the north of Ukraine. Lukashenko stated that he had agreed with Putin to deploy a regional military group and had started pulling forces together.

Lukashenko has also allowed Russia to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. He has stated that he is completely ready to use these weapons if foreign soldiers enter Belarus, but that he has no plans to attack anyone.

The involvement of Belarus in the conflict has been condemned by Western countries, with sanctions imposed by the EU, the US, the UK, Canada, and Japan.

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