Belarus On The Brink: War Preparations?

Belarus's president, Alexander Lukashenko, has ordered his country to prepare for war, stating that if you want peace, prepare for war. While Lukashenko has emphasised that Belarus does not intend to fight, he believes that the country's adversaries are preparing to fight against them and thus they must strengthen their defence capabilities and modernise their army. Lukashenko has accused neighbouring NATO countries, particularly Poland, of building up troops on the border and has warned that an attack on Belarus would mean the beginning of World War III. In response, Belarus has reformed its army multiple times in recent years and is now focusing on the modernisation of its armed forces, including the development of unmanned aerial vehicles and counter-battery capabilities.

Belarus' defence system

The Republic of Belarus has been taking steps to strengthen its defence capabilities and prepare for a possible war, according to President Alexander Lukashenko. In a statement, Lukashenko emphasised that Belarus does not want to fight but must be prepared for any eventuality. This sentiment has been echoed in the country's efforts to reform and modernise its military, with Lukashenko noting that Belarus has already reformed its army four times in recent years.

The Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus are comprised of the Ground Forces and the Air Force and Air Defence Forces, all operating under the command of the Ministry of Defence. As a landlocked country, Belarus has no navy. However, the Belarusian military does maintain control over some small Soviet-inherited naval vessels in its rivers and lakes.

The Belarusian military holds many Soviet-era military laws and maintains a high number of reserve personnel. In 2017, the IISS estimated that the Belarusian armed forces consisted of 49,000 personnel and nearly 350,000 reserves. Most soldiers are conscripts serving for 18 months, with an alternative service option available.

The Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Belarus is the government organisation responsible for raising and maintaining the country's armed forces. The ministry is part of the Security Council of Belarus and is headed by the Minister of Defence, who is appointed by the President. The current Minister of Defence is Major General Viktor Khrenin.

The Defence Ministry controls the Armed Forces and ensures they are prepared to carry out missions to secure the military defence and sovereignty of Belarus. This includes providing materials and resources for daily operations and combat training, as well as developing armament programs and military education. The ministry also plays a role in fostering patriotism and ensuring the social security of military personnel and their families.

In addition to the regular armed forces, Belarus also has Territorial Forces, which are a homeland defence organisation within the armed forces. These forces consist of around 120,000 troops, which is twice the number serving in the regular military. The Territorial Forces are spread across Belarus and are organised into battalions, companies, and platoons.

Belarus has also invested in modernising its military equipment, acquiring S-400 air defence systems and 9K720 Iskander tactical ballistic missiles in 2022. The country's air force is equipped with MiG-29 fighters and Su-25 attack aircraft, as well as various types of helicopters. While Belarus's military forces are primarily armed with Soviet-era equipment, they still receive around 100 brand-new and upgraded systems each year, according to the Belarusian Deputy Minister of Defence.

Alexander Lukashenko's orders

Alexander Lukashenko, the President of Belarus, has issued a series of orders and statements regarding the country's military preparedness and defence strategy. Here are the key components of Lukashenko's orders:

• Preparing for War: Lukashenko has repeatedly emphasised that Belarus must prepare for the possibility of war, even if it does not desire conflict. He cited the old adage, "if you want peace, prepare for war," to justify his stance. This includes strengthening the country's defence capabilities and modernising its army.
• Strengthening Defence Capabilities: Lukashenko instructed the military to continue enhancing its defence capabilities, including reforming and modernising the armed forces. He noted that Belarus has already reformed its army four times in recent years and suggested that further modernisation is likely.
• Addressing Adversaries: While Lukashenko did not explicitly name Belarus's adversaries, he accused neighbouring NATO countries, particularly Poland, of increasing their troops along the border. He also accused Ukraine of provocation, claiming that Ukrainian strike drones violated Belarusian airspace.
• Military Training and Discipline: Lukashenko stressed the importance of military training and discipline. He instructed the armed forces to focus on physical training, fire and tactical exercises, and the study of modern weapons. He also emphasised the need for unity and discipline within the country.
• Territorial Defence and People's Militia: Lukashenko stated that the territorial defence and people's militia would be promptly organised if needed. He instructed an update to the tasks of territorial defence, taking into account modern warfare conditions. He also mentioned the importance of citizens with special skills, such as hunters with weapons, being ready to defend the country.
• Improving Military Equipment: Lukashenko noted the importance of developing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and modern equipment, such as electronic warfare systems (EW), to counter enemy drones effectively. He emphasised the need to create the most modern systems to suppress UAVs and other threats.
• Counter-Battery Struggle: Lukashenko introduced a new military term and process, emphasising the importance of instantly indicating the coordinates of artillery attacks and responding with cover fire. He stated that Belarus needed the appropriate systems to effectively implement this strategy.
• Cooperation with Ukraine: Lukashenko expressed Belarus's willingness to cooperate with Ukraine, stating that they do not intend to offend anyone. He also mentioned their long-standing cooperation with the Donetsk Republic, even when it was part of Ukraine.
• Warnings Against Aggression: Lukashenko warned that an attack on Belarusian territory would mean the beginning of a third world war. He also stated that Belarus must be able to respond to threats from its adversaries.
• Maintaining Combat Readiness: Lukashenko highlighted that the Belarusian army should be maintained in a state of combat readiness, stressing that "gunpowder should be kept dry."

Belarus' military capabilities

Belarus has limited military capabilities. In 2024, it was ranked 64th out of 145 countries in the Global Firepower review. The country has a small population and limited economic capabilities, which constrain the size of its military. Most of its military equipment is outdated, inherited from the Soviet Union. However, Belarus has been working to strengthen its defence capabilities and has reformed its army multiple times in recent years.

The Belarusian military consists of the Ground Forces and the Air Force and Air Defence Forces, under the command of the Ministry of Defence. As a landlocked country, Belarus does not have a navy, but it does control some small Soviet-inherited naval vessels in its rivers and lakes.

In 2017, the IISS estimated that Belarus had 49,000 personnel in its armed forces, with almost 350,000 reserves. Most soldiers are conscripts serving for 18 months. The Belarusian military still holds many Soviet military laws and prioritises maintaining a high number of reserve personnel.

In 2007, the Land Forces consisted of approximately 29,600 soldiers organised into several brigades and battalions. The Air Force and Air Defence Force consisted of 18,170 personnel, with 260 fighter-ground attack/training aircraft and 80 attack helicopters.

Belarus has been increasing its defence capabilities by developing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and modern equipment for electronic warfare. The country has also been improving the training of its military personnel, with a focus on physical readiness and the study of modern weapons.

Belarus plays a critical role as Russia's only ally on its western border and has a close partnership with Russia in defence matters. Much of Belarus's air defence system is integrated into the Russian network, and the two countries signed an agreement in 2006 to create a unified air defence system.

Belarus' adversaries

Belarus's adversaries are not explicitly mentioned by President Alexander Lukashenko, but he has previously accused neighbouring NATO countries of building up their troops on the border. He has also claimed that Belarus will soon have to confront the Baltic states and "take a piece of Poland".

In addition, Lukashenko has repeatedly accused Poland of building up troops on the border and has called for preparation for a possible conflict. He has also warned that an attack on Belarus would mean the beginning of World War Three.

Lukashenko has also claimed that Finland's entry into NATO, followed by Sweden, is part of an eastward expansion that will draw Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, Georgia, and Serbia into the alliance, following "Ukraine's scenario".

The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has stated that the Belarusian army had concentrated significant forces near the state border, including tanks, artillery, MLRS, and air defence units in the Gomel region. They urged Lukashenko not to make "tragic mistakes under pressure from Moscow" and to withdraw troops from the border.

Lukashenko, in turn, claimed that Ukrainian strike drones had violated Belarusian airspace and accused Kyiv of provocation, helping Russian President Vladimir Putin.

NATO's role

Historical Context

Since 1992, when Belarus joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council, NATO has worked to build a partnership with the country, engaging in dialogue and practical cooperation in areas of mutual interest. This forum for dialogue was later succeeded by the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council in 1997, which brought together all Allies and partner countries in the Euro-Atlantic area. Bilateral cooperation between NATO and Belarus commenced in 1995 with the signing of Partnership for Peace documents, and Belarus has participated in NATO's Individual Partnership Program since 1997 without formally joining the Alliance. Belarus established its diplomatic mission to NATO in 1998.

Recent Developments

In recent years, tensions between NATO and Belarus have escalated, particularly after the 2006 presidential election in Belarus, which resulted in a shift towards aligning its policies with Russia. This shift led to deteriorating relations with EU and NATO member states, including the imposition of entry bans on members of the Belarusian government by the European Union and the United States following an energy conflict with Russia in late 2006.

The presence of an estimated 30,000 Russian troops in Belarus, along with advanced weaponry such as Iskander tactical missiles, S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems, and SU-35 fighter jets, has raised concerns among NATO allies. The nature of this military deployment, coupled with Russia's actions in Ukraine, indicates a potential permanent presence, which would significantly impact the security calculus in Eastern Europe.

NATO's Response

In response to the situation in Belarus, NATO has taken several actions:

• Condemnation of Belarus' Actions: NATO has condemned Belarus for enabling Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and for its ongoing complicity in Russia's war efforts. Belarus has made its territory and infrastructure available to Russian forces, allowing them to continue their attacks on Ukraine.
• Suspension of Practical Cooperation: In November 2021, NATO Allies suspended all practical cooperation, both civilian and military, with Belarus while maintaining dialogue as necessary.
• Calls for Respect of Human Rights: NATO has called on the Belarusian authorities to demonstrate full respect for human rights, including freedom of speech and the right to peaceful protest, particularly following the mass protests over the results of the 2020 presidential election.
• Support for a Sovereign and Independent Belarus: NATO Allies support the sovereignty and independence of Belarus and emphasize that it is for the people of Belarus to determine their future.
• Addressing Security Concerns: NATO has expressed concern over the deployment of Russian troops in Belarus and its implications for regional stability and the defence of the Alliance. NATO has also condemned Russia's nuclear rhetoric and the announced stationing of nuclear weapons in Belarus, which demonstrate strategic intimidation.

In summary, NATO's role in Belarus has been characterized by a complex partnership, evolving dialogue, and practical cooperation. Recent developments, however, have led to tensions and concerns about Belarus' complicity in Russia's aggression against Ukraine. NATO has responded by condemning Belarus' actions, suspending practical cooperation, and addressing security implications, while also emphasizing support for a sovereign and independent Belarus.

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