Afghanistan's Complex War: Drugs, Power, And Foreign Influence

Afghanistan's drug trade has been booming under Taliban rule. The Taliban vowed to crack down on narcotics after taking power in August 2021, but the decree has been inadequately enforced. The country's drug economy expanded dramatically after the US- and NATO-led invasion in 2001, with the amount of land under poppy cultivation almost tripling between 2002 and 2020.

The Taliban's purported ban on opium and ephedra has devastated poor farmers, enriched the Taliban, and done nothing to curb addiction. The ban has also put millions at risk of starvation and potentially alienated the group's own long-suffering support base.

The Taliban's last attempt to wipe out opium in 2000 was short-lived. The ban angered rural Afghans and was already at risk of unravelling by the time of 9/11. The economic crisis has also robbed the Taliban regime of resources to fight drugs.

The Taliban's narcotics ban is smoke-and-mirrors. Drug production and trafficking have remained at high levels or increased since the change of regime in Afghanistan.

The Taliban's ban on opium and ephedra

In October 2022, a Taliban soldier directed journalists along a maze of rocky tracks toward the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Every river and stream had dried up, and the only signs of water access were occasional solar panels used to generate electricity to pump water from deep underground. Until the ban, this scant water supply was used to irrigate poppy fields that carpeted the area and provided a rare source of income to Kandahar's rural poor.

Having leveraged the drug trade to fund their insurgency for decades, in 2021 the Taliban outlawed the harvesting of ephedra and the following April abruptly banned opium cultivation and production. This move blindsided many farmers in Afghanistan's poppy-growing heartlands.

The ban has baffled Afghans and international observers alike. Afghanistan's narcotics market earns far more money for its people than any other commodity in the country: the total value of all legal products exported from Afghanistan totaled just $870 million in 2019, which is dwarfed by an illicit opiate market reaching an estimated value of $1.2-$2.1 billion. With international aid and trade largely suspended, opium and meth became the last economic lifeline for many in provinces such as Kandahar and Helmand.

The ban has cost the Afghan economy $1.3 billion and 450,000 jobs at the farm level alone, and that doesn't include the high economic losses downstream. Most of the Taliban's budget is used to fund its military and security apparatus, leaving little for the Afghan people.

The ban has also set the world up for far worse public health consequences. If the ban is maintained and Europe starts experiencing a heroin drought, a fentanyl epidemic will likely surge. Mexican cartels, the key traffickers of fentanyl into North America, have developed new smuggling and retail networks, as well as synthetic drugs production hubs in Western Europe.

The ban has had a devastating impact on farmers. Profit margins for opium farmers and sharecroppers are modest—perhaps a few hundred dollars per hectare in a normal year—but as a Talib soldier-escort explained, this far outstrips profits from crops such as wheat. In theory, having opium farmers switch to wheat should help combat food insecurity, but in reality, the slender margins would leave farmers with little means to buy any other food, let alone medicine or other basic necessities.

The Taliban's ban devastates poor farmers

Afghanistan's ruling Taliban have announced a ban on poppy production, which is used to make opium and heroin. This ban will likely devastate poor farmers, who rely on the sale of opium to survive.

In 2021, before the Taliban takeover, Afghanistan produced over 6,000 tons of opium, which could yield 320 tons of pure heroin. Opium is a lucrative crop for farmers, who can make upwards of $300 a month harvesting the plant. In contrast, the average monthly salary in Afghanistan is only £3.

The ban will likely strike a heavy blow to millions of impoverished farmers and day labourers. Noor Mohammed, who owns a poppy field in Washir, said:

> "If we are not allowed to cultivate this crop, we will not earn anything."

Farmers with a few acres of land were able to make up to £350 in a good season from growing opium. One farmer in the village of Hadda in eastern Afghanistan lamented:

> "We don't have anything. All the young people have gone to Pakistan. Ninety percent of this area used to be cultivated with poppy. How much money can you make from wheat?"

The ban comes as Afghanistan's economy has collapsed and is facing a humanitarian crisis. Ninety-five percent of Afghans do not have enough to eat, and the ban will likely make it harder for farmers to buy staples such as flour, sugar, cooking oil, and heating oil.

The Taliban previously banned poppy production in the late 1990s, and the ban was largely successful in eradicating poppy cultivation within two years. However, after the Taliban was ousted in 2001, farmers returned to growing poppies. Despite billions of dollars spent by the international community to eradicate the drug trade in Afghanistan, the country remains the world's largest producer of opium.

The Taliban's current ban on poppy production will likely have devastating consequences for poor farmers, who rely on the crop to survive.

The Taliban's ban enriches the Taliban

The Taliban's ban on opium poppy and ephedra—a plant that contains a precursor for manufacturing methamphetamine—has been justified as a matter of ethics, with high-ranking members of the Taliban insisting that drugs are "dangerous for the world". However, critics argue that the ban enriches the Taliban in several ways.

Firstly, the ban allows the Taliban to increase their profits by taking advantage of price surges. Vanda Felbab-Brown, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution, warns that individual Taliban commanders may allow pockets of drug production to continue under their control, inflating their profits. This is supported by observations that while domestic availability of illicit drugs remains unaffected, prices are soaring in anticipation of future shortages.

Secondly, the ban enables the Taliban to consolidate their power by protecting the livelihoods of rural farmers who rely on these cash crops. By banning the cultivation of opium poppy and ephedra, the Taliban can gain the support of struggling rural families who would otherwise be impoverished by the ban. This tactic of offering protection to farmers has been used by the Taliban for decades, bringing them closer to farmers and providing an opportunity to recruit more soldiers.

Furthermore, the ban may be used as a means to increase the Taliban's control over the drug trade itself. Despite the ban, it has been observed that some drugs passing through Taliban checkpoints bear an official Taliban seal, suggesting that they are being waved through without inspection. This indicates that the Taliban may be exploiting the ban to gain a monopoly over the drug trade, ensuring that only drugs approved by them are able to pass through their checkpoints.

Finally, the ban could be a strategy to raise opium prices and increase profits from the sale of existing stockpiles. This was observed in 2000 when the Taliban passed a decree banning opium cultivation, which resulted in a significant drop in production. However, it is important to note that this ban was also seen as a bid for international recognition at the United Nations.

While the Taliban present themselves as ethical crusaders against the dangers of drugs, their ban on opium poppy and ephedra cultivation appears to have multiple enriching effects for the organisation. Through profit maximisation, power consolidation, control of the drug trade, and strategic stockpile management, the Taliban strengthen their position and further their goals.

The Taliban's ban has done nothing to curb addiction

The Taliban's ban on opium and ephedra has done nothing to curb addiction. The ban has been described as a "war on drugs" that has put millions at risk of starvation and alienated the Taliban's long-suffering support base. The ban has been described as "selective" and "smoke-and-mirrors", with the Taliban continuing to control the trade.

The ban has also been described as "devastating" to poor farmers, with the Taliban "snatching away" their sole cash crops. The ban has also been described as "enriching" the Taliban, with the Taliban collecting taxes from farmers and traffickers.

The ban has not been enforced, with the Taliban regime lacking the resources to fight drugs. The ban has also been described as "smoke-and-mirrors", with the Taliban continuing to control the trade.

The Taliban's ban is smoke and mirrors

The Taliban's ban on drugs is smoke and mirrors.

The Taliban's ban on drugs is a facade, as the group has been profiting from the drug trade since the 1990s. The ban is unlikely to be enforced, as it would be wickedly difficult for the Taliban to do so. The ban would eliminate the only source of income for many poor Afghans and would cause internal instability for the group.

The Taliban's ban on drugs is not new. In 2000, the Taliban banned opium poppy cultivation, however, this ban was short-lived as it was rescinded in 2001. The ban was likely unsustainable, as it angered rural Afghans and was at risk of unravelling before 9/11.

The Taliban's ban on drugs is driven by a desire for international legitimacy and recognition. However, the ban is unlikely to be enforced as it would eliminate the only source of income for many poor Afghans and would cause internal instability for the group. The ban would also be extremely difficult to enforce, as it would require extensive and lasting repression.

The Taliban's ban on drugs has not been effective, as drug production and trafficking have remained at high levels or increased since the change of regime in Afghanistan. The ban has also done nothing to curb addiction, as there are now an estimated 3.5 million drug addicts in Afghanistan.

The Taliban's ban on drugs is a facade, as the group has been profiting from the drug trade since the 1990s. The ban is driven by a desire for international legitimacy and recognition, however, it is unlikely to be enforced as it would be wickedly difficult for the Taliban to do so and would cause internal instability for the group.

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