The Afghan Skies: Grounded Planes And A Nation's Stalled Progress

The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan has left the country in a state of uncertainty and turmoil. The future of Afghanistan is now in question, with the Taliban taking control of the country and its borders and airspace. In the aftermath of the U.S. departure, several planes meant to evacuate American citizens and green card holders, as well as members of NGOs, journalists, and women at risk, were left grounded in Afghanistan. The Taliban's refusal to let these planes depart has been described as a hostage situation, with demands for cash or legitimacy as the recognised government of Afghanistan. This situation has highlighted the challenges and dangers faced by those seeking to flee the country, even as the U.S. pledged to hold the Taliban accountable for their pledge to allow people to leave freely.

The Taliban's refusal to let US evacuation planes leave Afghanistan

Marina LeGree, executive director of Ascend, an NGO that teaches young Afghan women leadership through athletics, confirmed that there were six planes in total, with hundreds of passengers waiting to depart. The passengers included at least 19 American citizens, two green card holders, members of non-governmental organizations, journalists, and women at risk.

The Taliban's actions caused a standoff, with US Representative Michael McCaul stating that the group was demanding "cash or legitimacy as the government of Afghanistan" before they would allow the planes to leave. This incident highlighted the desperate situation faced by those seeking to escape Afghanistan and the challenges in the evacuation process.

The State Department, while acknowledging the difficulty in confirming details due to the lack of personnel on the ground, maintained that they were prepared to help all remaining US citizens, green card holders, and at-risk Afghans who wanted to leave. They also emphasized their commitment to holding the Taliban accountable for their pledge to let people travel freely.

The situation at Mazar-i-Sharif International Airport eventually resolved, with the US facilitating the safe departure of four Americans via an overland route. However, the incident underscored the complexities and tensions during the evacuation process and the Taliban's influence over who could leave the country.

The Afghan Air Force's dependence on US contractors for maintenance

The Pentagon has acknowledged that the Afghan Air Force will struggle to stay in the air without contractor support. In fact, a report from the Office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction states that no Afghan aircraft can be sustained as combat-effective for more than a few months without this support.

The departure of US contractors, therefore, poses a significant challenge for the Afghan Air Force. The loss of contractor support could result in the grounding of the Afghan Air Force, depriving Afghan security forces of a critical advantage in their fight against the Taliban.

The Afghan government has struggled to find alternative solutions, and there are concerns about the ability of the Afghan military to maintain its aircraft without contractor assistance. This issue highlights the dependence of the Afghan Air Force on US contractors and the potential consequences of their withdrawal.

The impact of the US withdrawal on Afghanistan's future

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has left the country in a state of uncertainty and disarray, with a range of consequences for its future.

Firstly, the withdrawal has resulted in a power vacuum, with the Taliban regaining control of the country. This has led to a collapse of the economy, a humanitarian crisis, and a rollback of civil liberties, particularly for women and girls. The Taliban's rule is expected to be harsh and repressive, with widespread reprisals and restrictions on civil society. The future of Afghanistan's civil war is uncertain, but the Taliban's ascendance has shifted the momentum in their favour, and there are concerns that the country could descend into a protracted and bloody civil war.

Secondly, the withdrawal has had a significant impact on Afghanistan's security situation. With the US military presence gone, the Afghan government has lost its main advantage in its war with the Taliban. The Afghan Air Force is particularly affected, as it relied heavily on US contractors for maintenance and support. Without this support, the Afghan Air Force may struggle to remain operational, depriving the Afghan security forces of a crucial advantage. This could lead to a shift in the battlefield balance and make it more difficult to counter terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda and ISIS, which continue to pose a threat.

Thirdly, the withdrawal has damaged the credibility and reliability of the US in the eyes of its allies and partners. The hasty and chaotic nature of the withdrawal, combined with the Taliban's rapid advance, has raised questions about the US commitment to its allies and its ability to honour its promises. This could have implications for US foreign policy and its relationships with other countries, particularly in the region.

Finally, the withdrawal has had a direct impact on the Afghan people, especially those who worked with the US and its allies. There are still thousands of Afghans at risk of retribution from the Taliban, including those who worked with US and NATO forces, journalists, and women's rights activists. Evacuating these individuals and providing them with protection and resettlement assistance remains a pressing issue.

Overall, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan has had far-reaching consequences for the country's future, including political, security, economic, and humanitarian impacts. The Taliban's rule, combined with the loss of US support, is expected to lead to a deterioration in living conditions, increased human rights violations, and a more challenging security environment. Addressing these issues and supporting the Afghan people will require a concerted and creative approach from the international community.

The Taliban's attacks on Kabul's Intercontinental Hotel

On 20 January 2018, the Taliban launched a deadly attack on the Intercontinental Hotel in Kabul, Afghanistan, sparking a 12-hour battle that left 40 people dead, including 14 foreigners, and 14 others injured. The hotel, located in the Karte Parwan neighbourhood in western Kabul, was one of the most visited by foreigners and had been heavily protected like most public buildings in the city.

The attack began around 9 pm local time when a group of four or five gunmen armed with light weapons and rocket-propelled grenades stormed the hotel, opening fire and taking hostages. It is believed that the gunmen targeted foreigners, as they made their way through the hotel floors, blowing open guests' rooms and shooting whoever was inside. Some guests attempted to escape by tying bed sheets together and climbing down from the upper floors of the building, which was partially set on fire.

The Afghan Special Forces were lowered by helicopters onto the hotel's roof to neutralise the attackers. Soldiers from the Afghan National Army, with the assistance of Norwegian Special Forces, also responded to the attack and exchanged gunfire with the gunmen. The battle lasted over 13 hours before the government announced that all attackers had been killed.

The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack, warning Afghan civilians to avoid locations frequented by foreigners. This attack highlighted the unpredictable security situation in Kabul and dealt a significant blow to Kam Air, Afghanistan's main airline, which lost nine of its international staff in the attack, including pilots and crew members from Ukraine and Venezuela.

The Intercontinental Hotel attack was a grim reminder of the increasing routine carnage deliberately inflicted by combatants against civilians in flagrant violation of international law. It also underscored the Taliban's willingness to target civilians and carry out destructive attacks on the capital, despite the heavy protection afforded to public buildings in Kabul.

The evacuation of US citizens and green card holders from Afghanistan

The Challenges

The evacuation efforts faced significant hurdles, with reports indicating that the Taliban was not allowing planes carrying evacuees to depart from Afghanistan. This situation left hundreds of people stranded, including US citizens and green card holders, in the northern city of Mazar-i-Sharif. The Taliban was accused of using these individuals as "hostages" to make demands of the US government. The State Department acknowledged the issue and maintained that they were prepared to help all US citizens, green card holders, and at-risk Afghans who wanted to leave.

The Numbers

Estimates vary regarding the number of US citizens and green card holders stranded in Afghanistan. While the Biden administration placed the number at around 100-200, rescue groups and politicians claimed the figure could be as high as 500 or more. This discrepancy may be due to unregistered US citizens and those who chose not to leave family members behind.

The Evacuation Process

The evacuation process involved multiple organizations and governments working together to secure the safe departure of individuals from Afghanistan. The US State Department, along with private groups and other governments, coordinated to arrange charter flights and provide necessary clearances. The US embassy played a crucial role in this process, and the US military also contributed to the evacuation efforts.

The Outcome

Despite the challenges, there were successful evacuations of US citizens and green card holders from Afghanistan. In one instance, over 100 individuals, including children, were evacuated via a private charter flight and transported to the United Arab Emirates. However, the process of verifying passenger manifests and travel documents before allowing these flights to land in the US created delays and complications.

The Ongoing Efforts

The US government affirmed its commitment to helping those left behind, stating that their efforts to facilitate departures from Afghanistan would continue. The State Department maintained contact with US citizens believed to still be in the country and worked with other governments and private groups to arrange charter flights. The unpredictable nature of the Taliban's decisions regarding departures and the absence of regular commercial air service were significant obstacles.

The Bottom Line

While the evacuation process faced challenges and uncertainties, the safe departure of over 123,000 people, including US citizens and green card holders, marked a significant outcome. The US government's pledge to hold the Taliban accountable for their pledge to allow free departures and the ongoing diplomatic efforts to assist those stranded provided some reassurance.

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