Escalating Tensions: Afghanistan War Intensifies

The War in Afghanistan was an armed conflict that lasted from 2001 to 2021. It was the longest war in US history, surpassing the Vietnam War. The war was a direct response to the September 11 attacks, which were planned by Osama bin Laden and carried out by Al-Qaeda.

The US-led coalition invaded Afghanistan and quickly ousted the Taliban regime, which had refused to hand over Osama bin Laden. The Taliban leadership relocated to southern Afghanistan and across the border to Pakistan, from where they waged an insurgency against the Western-backed government in Kabul, Afghan national security forces, and international coalition troops.

The conflict officially ended with the 2021 Taliban offensive, which overthrew the Islamic Republic and re-established the Islamic Emirate. The Taliban had continued to capture and contest territory across the country, despite ongoing peace talks with the Afghan government. In August 2021, the Taliban entered the capital of Kabul, and the Afghan government collapsed.

The war resulted in significant casualties, with an estimated 176,000-212,000+ people killed, including 46,319 civilians. The war also caused widespread destruction, displacement, and humanitarian crises in Afghanistan.

The Taliban's offensive strategy

The Taliban's military strategy was to pursue a bottom-up approach, negotiating with and coercing village leaders and elders to surrender to the Taliban. This strategy was highly effective, as it allowed the Taliban to secure resources, vehicles, and weapons, as well as control over roads and highways, which gave them freedom of movement. Each surrender also served as propaganda for the Taliban, helping to convince other leaders and elders to negotiate and surrender. The Taliban also targeted northern provinces, where resistance was expected to be weaker, and capitalised on the US-trained Afghan National Security Forces' (ANSF) focus on defending urban centres, allowing the Taliban to take control of most of Afghanistan's highways.

The Taliban's diplomatic strategy was to use political means to gain international legitimacy, secure the release of Taliban fighters, and negotiate the departure of foreign forces. The Taliban framed themselves as a nationalist group, fighting against foreign invaders, and leveraged their military victories to boost their credibility. They also took advantage of new media platforms to spread their message and connect with supporters, creating virtual communities and fundraising mechanisms.

The Taliban's military and diplomatic strategies worked in tandem, with each leveraging the other to ultimately achieve their goal of re-establishing the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.

The US-Taliban peace deal

The deal was the first step towards achieving lasting peace in Afghanistan, with the bigger challenge being to negotiate an agreement between the Taliban and the Afghan government. The Taliban had resisted direct talks with the Afghan government, calling it an American puppet. However, the intra-Afghan negotiations were already off to a precarious start following the US-Taliban deal, as the Afghan government said it had not committed to a prisoner swap with the Taliban.

The peace process was supported by a vast majority of Afghans, but many issues remained to be worked out during intra-Afghan negotiations, including power-sharing, disarming and reintegrating Taliban fighters, and determining the future of the country's democratic institutions and constitution. The Taliban continued to launch major attacks on military and civilian targets as a bargaining tactic, and experts warned that pulling out US troops too quickly could be destabilizing.

The Afghan government was frustrated with the continued rise in violence by the Taliban, which had taken a toll on civilians. The intra-Afghan talks started six months later than scheduled due to a rift between the two parties over the release of Taliban prisoners. The US-Taliban deal did not specify the reduction of violence as a requirement, and the Taliban intensified attacks as a bargaining tactic.

The US-Taliban deal was not effective in bringing peace or ending the bloodshed and suffering of Afghans. Kabul's exclusion from the deal emboldened the Taliban to increase hostilities, and the group did not recognize the Afghan government as legitimate. The deal was also criticized for being a face-saving device for the Trump administration and an election gimmick to win over Trump's voter base.

The role of regional powers such as Pakistan, India, Iran, and Russia could also impact the peace process. Pakistan, which served as the Taliban's home base, desired an Afghan government that included the Taliban and was friendlier toward Islamabad than New Delhi. India, a strong supporter of the Afghan government, did not back US efforts to reach an agreement with the Taliban. Shiite-majority Iran viewed the Sunni Taliban as a foe and supported the Afghan government, while Russia sought to rekindle ties with Afghanistan and grow its influence in the region.

The US-led invasion

The invasion began on October 7, 2001, marking the public start of Operation Enduring Freedom. The US military, with British support, began a bombing campaign against Taliban forces. The war's early phase mainly involved US air strikes on al-Qaeda and Taliban forces that were assisted by a partnership of about one thousand US special forces, the Northern Alliance, and ethnic Pashtun anti-Taliban forces. The first wave of conventional ground forces arrived twelve days later. Most of the ground combat was between the Taliban and its Afghan opponents.

The Taliban regime unravelled rapidly after its loss at Mazar-e-Sharif on November 9, 2001, to forces loyal to Abdul Rashid Dostum, an ethnic Uzbek military leader. Over the next week, Taliban strongholds crumbled after coalition and Northern Alliance offensives. On November 14, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 1378, calling for a "central role" for the United Nations in establishing a transitional administration and inviting member states to send peacekeeping forces to promote stability and aid delivery.

After the fall of Kabul in November 2001, the United Nations invited major Afghan factions, most prominently the Northern Alliance and a group led by the former king (but not the Taliban), to a conference in Bonn, Germany. On December 5, 2001, the factions signed the Bonn Agreement, endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 1383. The agreement, reportedly reached with substantial Iranian diplomatic help because of Iran’s support for the Northern Alliance faction, installs Hamid Karzai as interim administration head and creates an international peacekeeping force to maintain security in Kabul.

The end of the Taliban regime is generally tied to this date, when the Taliban surrender Kandahar and Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar flees the city, leaving it under tribal law administered by Pashtun leaders. Despite the official fall of the Taliban, however, al-Qaeda leaders continue to hide out in the mountains.

The rise of ISIS-K

ISIS-K, or the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant in Khorasan, is an offshoot of ISIS that emerged in 2015. ISIS-K's members are disillusioned Taliban fighters who hold the view that the Taliban are not extremist enough. ISIS-K is known for its brutality and fanaticism, and its goal is to establish an Islamic caliphate across the Middle East and Asia. The group has conducted hundreds of attacks since its founding, including the 2021 Kabul airport attack that killed 13 U.S. service members and at least 170 Afghans.

ISIS-K's leader, Shahab al-Muhajir, has described the group's operations as "active and dangerous". ISIS-K has a strong local focus, targeting the remaining diplomatic and developmental presence of the international community in Afghanistan. The group also targets Afghans who worked with the U.S. government and other members of the international community.

ISIS-K's regional and transnational terrorism ambitions are also concerning. The group has a cadre of foreign fighters from South Asia, the Middle East and parts of Europe. Additionally, ISIS-K appears to work closely with al-Sadiq, ISIS's node for regional operations based in Afghanistan.

ISIS-K has a hostile relationship with the Taliban, viewing them as an irreconcilable enemy that needs to be militarily defeated. The enmity between the two groups is aggravated by their sectarian difference. ISIS-K subscribes to the Jihadi-Salafism ideology, while the Taliban subscribe to the Hanafi madhhab, an alternative Sunni Islamic school.

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan brings both opportunity and pressure for ISIS-K in the country. On the side of opportunity, ISIS-K can gain support from anti-Taliban and Taliban-disillusioned Islamist constituencies. ISIS-K can also ramp up violence to distinguish itself as the more militant and unrelenting jihadi group in Afghanistan and attract young jihadis.

Among the pressures, the Taliban's military power is a major constraint facing ISIS-K. In addition to their own insurgent capabilities, the Taliban have inherited the security institutions and military capabilities of the former Afghan government. With the Taliban consolidating control, ISIS-K may also face challenges in inducing civilian collaboration and favorable political alignments in parts of eastern Afghanistan, which remain the most favorable terrain for ISIS-K due to deep Salafi influence.

The evacuation of Kabul

The evacuation efforts became more urgent as the collapse of the Afghan government occurred sooner than expected. The Taliban had launched a widespread offensive in May 2021, and by July, the US Intelligence Community estimated that the Afghan government could collapse within six to twelve months after the departure of American troops. However, the situation deteriorated rapidly, and by mid-August, the Afghan National Army had only two operational units left, both based in Kabul.

On 13 August, the US and UK announced the deployment of additional troops to Kabul Airport to secure the evacuations of their nationals, embassy staff, and Afghan citizens who had worked with coalition forces. Other countries, including Canada, India, and South Korea, also launched evacuation operations. The US alone evacuated about 82,300 people from Hamid Karzai International Airport between 14 and 25 August.

The evacuation was a challenging and chaotic process, with thousands of fleeing Afghan civilians rushing to the airport. There were reports of people climbing over boundary walls, attempting to forcefully board aircraft, and even clinging onto departing planes. The US and NATO troops had to use crowd control measures, including smoke grenades and warning shots, to manage the situation.

The evacuation efforts were also dangerous, with the constant threat of attacks by the Taliban or other militant groups. On 26 August, a suicide bombing at the airport killed over 180 people, including 13 US troops and 170 Afghan civilians. Despite this, the evacuation continued, and by 30 August, the US had completed its withdrawal from Afghanistan, marking the end of America's longest war.

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