The Long War: Afghanistan's Enduring Conflict

The War in Afghanistan was a 20-year conflict that began in 2001 as a response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center in New York City. An international coalition led by the USA, with British forces in support, invaded Afghanistan to destroy the terrorist organisation Al-Qaeda and overthrow the Taliban regime that was harbouring Osama Bin Laden. The war ended in 2021 with the withdrawal of US and allied troops from Afghanistan, leaving the country once again under Taliban control.

The US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001

The invasion consisted of American, British, Canadian, and Australian forces, with other countries providing logistical support. The stated goal was to dismantle al-Qaeda and deny Islamist militants a safe base of operations in Afghanistan by toppling the Taliban government. The Taliban had already seized around 85% of Afghanistan's territory, effectively confining the Northern Alliance, an anti-Taliban coalition, to the country's northeast corner.

The invasion began with air strikes on 31 targets across Afghanistan, destroying most of the Taliban's outdated surface-to-air missiles, aircraft, and radar and command units. The coalition captured Kabul on November 13 and toppled the Taliban by December 17, after which international military bases were set up near major cities. However, most members of al-Qaeda and the Taliban were not captured, and during the Battle of Tora Bora, several fighters, including Osama bin Laden, escaped into neighbouring Pakistan.

The fall of Kabul started a cascading collapse of Taliban positions, and within 24 hours, all Afghan provinces along the Iranian border had fallen. Local Pashtun commanders and warlords took over throughout northeastern Afghanistan, and the Taliban retreated to their heartland in southeastern Afghanistan.

The US aimed to destroy al-Qaeda and remove the Taliban regime from power, but they also sought to prevent the Northern Alliance from taking control of Afghanistan, believing that the Alliance's rule would alienate the country's Pashtun majority. The US achieved its war aims with a force of only 110 CIA officers, 350 special operators, and 5,000 Rangers and Marines. The rapid victory can be partly attributed to the tendency in Afghan culture for fighters to defect to the winning side once its victory is seen as inevitable.

The legality of the invasion under international law has been disputed by scholars. While some argue that it was an act of self-defence, as permitted by Article 51 of the UN Charter, others claim that it was illegal because there was no evidence that further terrorist attacks were imminent, and Afghanistan itself was not responsible for the actions of al-Qaeda.

The Taliban's resurgence and the US-led counterinsurgency

The Taliban's resurgence in Afghanistan can be traced back to the group's fall from power during the 2001 War in Afghanistan. After their defeat, many Taliban fighters either left the movement or retreated to sanctuaries in Pakistan.

In 2003, high-ranking Taliban officials proclaimed that the group had regrouped and was ready to wage a guerrilla war to expel US forces from Afghanistan. Small mobile Taliban training camps were established along the border to train recruits in guerrilla warfare, and bases with up to 200 fighters emerged in the tribal areas by the summer of 2003.

The Taliban spent several years regrouping and launched a re-escalation of the insurgency campaign in 2006, marked by a wave of attacks using improvised explosives and suicide bombers, particularly after NATO took command of the fight against insurgents in spring 2006.

The resurgence of the Taliban can be attributed to several factors:

• Foreign support, particularly from Pakistan: Elements of the Pakistani government, military, and intelligence services maintained strong logistical and tactical ties with Taliban militants, providing safe havens, financial support, and tactical assistance.
• Inadequate focus on Afghanistan by the US and its allies: From 2003 to 2008, the US largely ignored Afghanistan, focusing instead on the insurgency in Iraq. This allowed the Taliban to rebuild its strength and gain a foothold in the country.
• Weak and corrupt Afghan government: The Afghan government, led by President Hamid Karzai, was widely seen as weak, corrupt, and ineffective in addressing the needs of the Afghan people, which created an opportunity for the Taliban to gain support, especially in rural areas.
• Inadequate counterinsurgency strategy: The US-led counterinsurgency efforts were hampered by a lack of understanding of the local dynamics, failure to win the support of the indigenous population, and insufficient focus on improving the capacity of the Afghan security forces and governance.

Faced with the Taliban's resurgence, the US and its allies adjusted their strategy and increased their military presence in Afghanistan. However, despite these efforts, the Taliban continued to gain strength and eventually regained control of the country in 2021.

The Obama administration's troop surge

In December 2009, President Barack Obama announced a troop surge in Afghanistan. He deployed 30,000 more U.S. troops to Afghanistan, in addition to the 70,000 previously authorised by himself and Bush. NATO and other U.S. allies increased their forces to 50,000. The surge was accompanied by a dramatic escalation of U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan.

Obama's decision came after a period of intense pressure from civilian foreign policy hawks and the uniformed military to act decisively and prevent the U.S. from "losing the war". Obama was conflicted; he had campaigned against the Iraq War, citing the strain on the military and U.S. taxpayers, and he sought an exit plan for Afghanistan. However, he viewed the war in Afghanistan as more important than Iraq, arguing that an Al Qaeda presence there would be a serious threat to U.S. security.

The troop surge was part of a new strategy modelled after the surge strategy in Iraq, in which U.S. forces would focus on protecting the population from insurgents rather than simply trying to kill large numbers of militants. The strategy also involved trying to persuade enemy fighters to defect and encouraging reconciliation between the Karzai government and Taliban leaders.

Obama's decision was based on three primary objectives: 1) denying Al Qaeda a safe haven; 2) reversing the Taliban's momentum and preventing them from overthrowing the government; and 3) strengthening the capacity of Afghanistan's Security Forces and government. The surge was intended to stabilise the country and set the groundwork for a gradual U.S. exit.

However, the inclusion of a withdrawal date meant that even if the campaign goals were important, the operation would be rushed and have little chance of achieving long-term results. The presence of U.S. troops in Afghanistan had spurred more terrorism, not less. Robert Pape, who studied the motivation of suicide terrorists and tracked attacks in Afghanistan, noted that "the more Western troops we have sent to Afghanistan, the more the local residents have viewed themselves as under foreign occupation, leading to a rise in suicide bombings and other terrorist attacks."

The surge in U.S. forces led to an increase in U.S. combat deaths. During the first three months of 2010, U.S. deaths were approximately twice what they had been over the same period in 2009. The surge began with an assault on the insurgent-held town of Marja in Helmand Province, with U.S. Marines achieving a relatively quick victory.

In June 2010, Obama replaced General Stanley McChrystal with General David Petraeus after McChrystal and some of his aides made disparaging remarks about Obama and other top administration officials. Despite the switch, Obama vowed that the U.S. strategy in Afghanistan would not change.

The US-Taliban deal and the withdrawal of US troops

The US-Taliban deal, also known as the Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan, was signed on February 29, 2020, by the Trump administration and the Taliban in Doha, Qatar. The deal was aimed at ending the 18-year-long war in Afghanistan, which began after the 9/11 attacks. The agreement laid out a timetable for the withdrawal of US and foreign troops from Afghanistan and included provisions for a reduction in violence, the start of intra-Afghan negotiations, and counter-terrorism assurances from the Taliban.

The deal stipulated an initial reduction of US forces from 13,000 to 8,600 troops within 135 days, followed by a complete withdrawal within 14 months (by May 1, 2021), if the Taliban upheld its commitments. The Taliban agreed to start talks with the Afghan government and guaranteed that Afghanistan would not be used as a safe haven for terrorist groups.

However, the intra-Afghan peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government faced challenges due to the weak central government, ethnic and sectarian differences, and the Taliban's increasing military strength. The Taliban's offensive in Helmand province and the resurgence of violence across Afghanistan raised concerns about the group's commitment to reducing violence.

In April 2021, President Biden confirmed the withdrawal of US troops by September 11, 2021, marking the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. The withdrawal process was not without challenges, and as the Taliban made rapid gains, additional US troops were deployed to Afghanistan to facilitate the evacuation of US citizens and embassy staff. The last US military planes left Kabul on August 30, 2021, ending America's longest war.

The Taliban's victory and the fall of Kabul

The fall of Kabul was precipitated by the Taliban's rapid advance across Afghanistan, capturing most of the country's provinces in quick succession during an offensive that began in May 2021. This occurred concurrently with the withdrawal of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan, in accordance with the US-Taliban deal signed in February 2020. The deal stipulated the withdrawal of all NATO forces from Afghanistan in exchange for counter-terrorism commitments from the Taliban.

The collapse of the Afghan government and security forces was swift and unexpected. Despite the US investing over $85 billion in training and equipping Afghan security forces, they proved unable to counter the Taliban insurgency. The Afghan National Army was left in disarray, with only two units remaining operational by mid-August.

The fall of Kabul had immediate consequences. Chaos and fear gripped the city as the Taliban, known for their repression and brutality, particularly towards women and minorities, began taking charge. There were reports of Taliban fighters going door-to-door, searching for Afghan government workers and human rights activists. The rights and freedoms of women and girls were severely restricted, with reports of women being barred from leaving their homes without a male guardian and female-owned businesses being shut down.

The US and its allies evacuated more than 123,000 people from Afghanistan through Kabul International Airport during the Taliban's takeover. However, the evacuation efforts were marred by a suicide bombing at the airport, which killed over 180 people, including 13 American troops.

The Taliban's victory in Afghanistan had significant implications beyond the country's borders. It inspired Islamist militants worldwide, with some portraying it as a victory for their cause, second only to the 9/11 attacks. The events in Afghanistan also raised questions about the effectiveness of counter-insurgency strategies that rely heavily on Western troops and support.

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