The City Of War: A Look At Afghanistan's Long Conflict

Afghanistan is a landlocked country in Central Asia that has been in a state of war since the 1970s. The conflict began in 1978 when a communist revolution established a socialist state, and subsequent infighting prompted the Soviet Union to invade Afghanistan in 1979. Mujahideen fought against the Soviets in the Soviet–Afghan War and continued fighting amongst themselves following the Soviets' withdrawal in 1989. The Islamic fundamentalist Taliban controlled most of the country by 1996, but their Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan received little international recognition before its overthrow in the 2001 US invasion of Afghanistan. The Taliban returned to power in 2021 after capturing Kabul and overthrowing the government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, ending the 2001–2021 war.

The capital of Afghanistan is Kabul, which was the last major urban area under government control during the Taliban's 2021 offensive.

The Taliban's takeover of Kabul

The Taliban's seizure of Kabul had far-reaching consequences and exacerbated the country's existing challenges. The takeover disrupted domestic markets and economic activity, driving up production costs and causing cash shortages due to restrictions on bank withdrawals. This economic paralysis resulted in significant job losses, particularly in key sectors such as agriculture, civil service, and construction. The lack of cash in the economy also deeply impacted teachers and health workers.

The Taliban's rise to power had severe implications for human rights, especially for women. The new Taliban government rolled back the advancements in women's rights achieved during the post-2001 reconstruction era. Women were largely prohibited from working outside the fields of teaching and healthcare, and their employment levels decreased significantly. Secondary schools for girls remained closed, and restrictions on women's participation in the workplace were imposed.

The takeover also led to a brain drain in the academic and scientific community, with many researchers and scientists feeling marooned and struggling to continue their careers or find routes out of the country.

Furthermore, the Taliban's control of Kabul and Afghanistan heightened the humanitarian crisis. The chaotic evacuation efforts left many Afghans at risk of Taliban retaliation, and the loss of foreign aid further exacerbated the economic collapse. The country's health services also suffered, leaving millions at risk of famine and without access to adequate physical and mental healthcare.

The US-led invasion of Afghanistan

The invasion made rapid progress, and within two months, the coalition had captured Kabul and toppled the Taliban government. However, most members of al-Qaeda and the Taliban were not captured, and they escaped into neighbouring Pakistan or retreated to remote regions within Afghanistan.

The invasion was followed by the establishment of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) by the United Nations Security Council to oversee military operations and train the new Afghan National Security Forces. Hamid Karzai was selected to lead the Afghan Interim Administration.

The US invasion of Afghanistan was part of a broader conflict in the country that began in 1978 between anticommunist Islamic guerrillas and the Afghan communist government, which was aided by Soviet troops from 1979 to 1989. The roots of this conflict lay in the overthrow of the centrist government of President Mohammad Daud Khan by left-wing military officers. The new communist government implemented ruthless purges and extensive land and social reforms that were bitterly resented by the devoutly Muslim and largely anticommunist population, triggering insurgencies.

The US-Taliban deal

The agreement addressed four key issues:

• Ceasefire and Reduction of Violence: Both sides agreed to a temporary reduction in violence, with a lasting ceasefire among US, Taliban, and Afghan forces to be negotiated as part of intra-Afghan talks.
• Withdrawal of Foreign Forces: The US committed to reducing its troop presence in Afghanistan from 12,000 to 8,600 within 135 days and to a full withdrawal within 14 months if the Taliban adhered to its commitments.
• Intra-Afghan Negotiations: The Taliban agreed to engage in direct talks with the Afghan government, which they had previously resisted, referring to it as an American puppet regime.
• Counterterrorism Assurances: The Taliban guaranteed that Afghanistan would not be used as a safe haven for terrorists or by any groups to threaten the security of the US and its allies. This was a crucial issue following the September 11, 2001 attacks, which triggered the US invasion of Afghanistan to eliminate the threat of terrorism.

While the deal was a significant step towards peace, it faced several challenges and obstacles. The bigger challenge lay in achieving a comprehensive peace agreement between the Taliban and the Afghan government, addressing power-sharing, women's rights, and the future of democratic institutions. Continued Taliban violence, a weak and divided Afghan government, and objections from external powers threatened to disrupt the fragile peace process.

The deal also raised concerns about the future of Afghanistan, particularly the preservation of democratic values, women's rights, and minority rights, which were at risk if the Taliban were to regain dominance. The economic dependence on foreign aid and the prevalence of corruption and weak institutions further complicated the path to peace.

The Doha Agreement

The deal was intended to bring an end to the 2001-2021 war in Afghanistan and stipulated fighting restrictions for both the US and the Taliban. It also provided for the withdrawal of all NATO forces from Afghanistan in exchange for the Taliban's counter-terrorism commitments. The US agreed to an initial reduction of its force level from 13,000 to 8,600 within 135 days, followed by a full withdrawal within 14 months if the Taliban kept its commitments. The United States also committed to closing five military bases within 135 days and ending economic sanctions on the Taliban.

The intra-Afghan negotiations were scheduled to begin on 10 March 2020 in Oslo, Norway. However, the composition of the Afghan government negotiating team was not determined due to disputes over the results of the 2019 Afghan presidential election. The deal also required the Afghan government to release 5,000 Taliban prisoners by the start of the talks in exchange for 1,000 government soldiers held by the Taliban.

On 1 March 2020, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani rejected the prisoner exchange, stating that his government had made no commitment to release Taliban prisoners and that any exchange must be part of a broader negotiation rather than a prerequisite for talks. Despite this, negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban for the release of prisoners began as planned on 10 March 2020. On the same day, Ghani signed a decree for the release of 1,500 Taliban prisoners on the condition that they agreed to sign pledges not to return to battle. However, the Taliban rejected Ghani's prisoner swap decree and continued to insist on the release of 5,000 prisoners.

The Taliban's offensive

The Taliban's 2021 offensive was a military campaign that led to the fall of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the end of the nearly 20-year War in Afghanistan. The offensive began on May 1, 2021, coinciding with the withdrawal of the United States' 2,5000 troops in Afghanistan. The Taliban victory had widespread domestic and international ramifications regarding human rights and the proliferation of terrorism.

The offensive included a continuation of the bottom-up succession of negotiated or paid surrenders to the Taliban from the village level upwards. The Taliban's effective use of online social media, its strategic choice of attacking northern provinces, and the Taliban's freedom of movement on the main Afghan highways all contributed to the offensive's success.

On May 6, 2021, the Taliban assassinated Dawa Khan Minapal, head of Government Media and Information Centre, in Kabul. On the same day, the Taliban captured the provincial capital of Nimruz Province, Zaranj, making it the first capture by the Taliban of a provincial capital since the 2001 American invasion.

On August 6, 2021, the Taliban launched an assault on the provincial capitals, with most of the towns surrendering without a fight. This culminated with victories in the weeks-long battles of major cities Herat, Kandahar, and Lashkargah on August 13. On August 15, 2021, President Ashraf Ghani fled the country, and the Taliban captured the Afghan capital Kabul with only sporadic resistance. The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan's government fell, resulting in the de facto takeover of the country and the reinstatement of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.

The speed of the Taliban's takeover came as a surprise to many, including the governments of the United States and their allies, Russia, and the Taliban themselves.

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