The Elusive Peace: Afghanistan's Endless War And The Quest For Stability

The war in Afghanistan has been ongoing since 2001, making it the United States' longest war. The conflict has resulted in hundreds of thousands of casualties on all sides, and over 2,400 US troops have died. In February 2020, the US and the Taliban agreed that all US troops would be withdrawn in 18 months if the Taliban honoured a commitment to fight terrorist groups, particularly the Islamic State, and not attack international forces. However, the Taliban's frequent attacks in both rural and urban areas, as well as the group's continued association with Pakistani intelligence services, have complicated the peace process. While the US has been withdrawing troops, the Biden administration has stated that it will maintain a small troop presence of about 2,000 in Afghanistan, likely special operations forces focused on counter-terrorism missions.

The US-led forces toppling the Taliban regime

The US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 ousted the Taliban regime and lasted only two months. The Taliban had been providing sanctuary to al-Qaeda, the perpetrators of the September 11 attacks. The invasion marked the start of Operation Enduring Freedom, with US and British warplanes pounding Taliban targets.

The CIA teamed up with anti-Taliban allies, including the Northern Alliance and Pashtun groups in the south of Afghanistan, to coordinate the overthrow of the regime. The US and its allies also provided arms, equipment, and advice to the Afghans.

The Taliban regime unravelled rapidly after its loss at Mazar-e-Sharif on November 9, 2001, to forces led by Abdul Rashid Dostum, an ethnic Uzbek military leader. Over the following week, Taliban strongholds fell one after another, with coalition and Northern Alliance offensives on Taloqan, Bamiyan, Herat, Kabul, and Jalalabad.

On November 14, 2001, the Taliban surrendered Kandahar, and their leader, Mullah Mohammed Omar, fled the city. This date is generally considered the end of the Taliban regime. Despite the official fall, al-Qaeda leaders continued to hide in the mountains.

The end of the Taliban regime was followed by the Bonn Agreement, which installed Hamid Karzai as the interim administration head of Afghanistan. The agreement also established an international peacekeeping force to maintain security in Kabul.

The Taliban's resurgence and recapture of Afghanistan

Taliban's Tactical Advantages and Support:

• The Taliban took advantage of Afghanistan's mountainous terrain, using it as a natural shield and launching attacks from hard-to-reach areas.
• The Taliban received support from various regional countries, particularly Pakistan, which provided financial aid, safe havens, and tactical assistance. The Haqqani Network, a Taliban affiliate based in Pakistan, played a significant role in the insurgency.
• The Taliban also benefited from the financial support of the private sector in Pakistan and generated revenue through criminal activities such as opium poppy cultivation, drug trafficking, and extortion.

Governance Issues and Corruption:

• The US-backed Afghan government struggled with corruption, graft, and tribal favoritism, which alienated the population and fueled support for the Taliban.
• There was a disconnect between urban and rural Afghanistan, with the ruling classes ignoring the needs and grievances of rural areas. This urban-rural divide widened over the years, and the Taliban capitalized on the discontent.
• The Afghan government failed to provide basic services, infrastructure, and economic opportunities to its citizens, particularly in rural areas.

Withdrawal of US and NATO Troops:

• The decision by the US and its NATO allies to withdraw troops from Afghanistan significantly weakened the position of the Afghan government and security forces.
• The Taliban capitalized on the withdrawal, intensifying their insurgency and capturing territory with relatively little resistance.
• The US-Taliban agreement in 2020, which outlined conditions for the withdrawal of US troops, was seen as a victory for the Taliban and emboldened them further.

Taliban's Strategic Maneuvers:

• The Taliban regrouped and re-strategized after their initial defeat in 2001, launching a re-escalation of the insurgency campaign in 2006.
• They employed guerrilla warfare tactics, targeting Afghan security forces, NATO allies, and civilian targets.
• The Taliban's ideology and messaging resonated with some segments of the population, particularly in rural and conservative areas, where they found support or, at the very least, passive acceptance.

In summary, the Taliban's resurgence and recapture of Afghanistan were the result of a combination of factors, including the group's tactical advantages, the failures of the US-backed government, and the withdrawal of international troops. The Taliban exploited the governance and security vacuum left by the departing US and NATO forces, ultimately leading to their return to power in 2021.

The US's longest war

The US war in Afghanistan was sparked by the 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington, planned by al-Qaeda from Afghanistan. In response, the US military, with British support, began a bombing campaign against Taliban forces, officially launching Operation Enduring Freedom. The war aimed to destroy al-Qaeda sanctuaries in Afghanistan and prevent future terrorist attacks.

Over the course of two decades, the conflict resulted in thousands of casualties on all sides, with more than 2,400 American service members and tens of thousands of Afghans losing their lives. The US spent over $2 trillion on the war, with daily costs estimated at $300 million during the two decades of the conflict.

Despite the enormous investment of resources, the war ultimately ended in a crushing defeat for America. The Taliban regained control of Afghanistan, and the democratic, pro-Western government that the US had sought to establish collapsed. The Taliban's resurgence has raised concerns about the protection of human rights, particularly for women and girls, and the safety of those who collaborated with US forces during the war.

The withdrawal of US troops began under the Trump administration, which negotiated a deal with the Taliban for a complete withdrawal of US troops. President Biden continued with the withdrawal, citing a desire to end America's "forever war" and refocus efforts on countering modern terrorist threats.

The end of the war in Afghanistan has sparked debates about the US's objectives and strategies, the impact on veterans, and the future of Afghanistan. Despite the setbacks and challenges, some improvements were achieved during the war, including advancements in human rights, education, and democracy. However, the overall outcome has been a devastating loss for the Afghan people, leaving the country in a state of uncertainty and ongoing conflict.

The Biden administration's troop withdrawal

Biden's decision to withdraw was based on several key factors. Firstly, he believed that a "conditions-based approach" would result in American troops never leaving the country. Additionally, Biden aimed to fulfil his long-held belief in ending America's extended military presence in Afghanistan. The withdrawal also aligned with his campaign promise to end "forever wars" and bring American troops home.

The withdrawal process was not without challenges. Biden faced pressure from both Republican and Democratic lawmakers to extend the deadline, citing concerns for the safety of American citizens and Afghan allies. There were also logistical hurdles, with the need to evacuate thousands of people within a short timeframe. The Taliban's cooperation was crucial, and while they did work with US forces to some extent, they also blocked Afghans' access to Kabul's airport and warned of consequences if US troops remained beyond the deadline.

Despite the complexities, the Biden administration successfully completed the withdrawal by the announced deadline. In his remarks, Biden acknowledged the sacrifices made by American troops over two decades and emphasized that the US had achieved its objectives of getting Osama bin Laden and degrading the terrorist threat from Afghanistan. He also stated that the Afghan people alone had the right to decide their future and that the US would continue to provide support, including civilian and humanitarian assistance.

The future of Afghanistan

The Taliban's resurgence has raised concerns about the protection of human rights in the country, particularly for women and girls. During the Taliban's previous rule, which ended in 2001, the group imposed strict interpretations of Islamic law, including restrictions on women's rights to education and employment and harsh punishments such as stoning and amputation for those who broke their laws.

While the Taliban have sought to present a more moderate image in recent years, including promising to respect women's rights within the framework of Islamic law, there are fears that these gains could be rolled back. Indeed, since the Taliban's takeover, there have been reports of restrictions on women's movement and their exclusion from public life, with women being asked to stay at home, female students being blocked from entering universities, and the replacement of the Ministry of Women's Affairs with a Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice.

The Taliban have also faced international criticism for their handling of the economy, with the country facing a severe economic crisis, a humanitarian emergency, and a brain drain as thousands of Afghans flee the country. The group has struggled to access billions of dollars in foreign reserves and international funding due to sanctions and the refusal of foreign governments to recognize their rule.

The Taliban's commitment to forming an "open, inclusive Islamic government" and upholding human rights, particularly for women and girls, will be crucial in determining the country's future trajectory. However, the group's actions thus far have raised doubts about their intentions and willingness to govern inclusively and respect the rights of all Afghans.

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