Belarus-Russia: A Future Together Or Apart?

Belarus and Russia have a long history of political and economic alignment, with both countries sharing a land border and constituting the supranational Union State. However, the relationship between the two nations has become increasingly strained due to various factors, including the war in Ukraine, energy trade disputes, and human rights violations in Belarus. While Belarus has maintained its strategic importance to Russia, particularly as an energy trade ally, the future of their relationship remains uncertain. With Western options for prying Minsk away from Moscow limited, the question of whether Belarus should continue to align itself with Russia remains a complex and challenging issue.

The impact of Russia's war in Ukraine on Belarus's relationship with Russia

Belarus has been a key ally of Russia in its war with Ukraine, with President Alexander Lukashenko allowing Russia to invade Ukraine from Belarusian territory in February 2022. Lukashenko has also permitted Russia to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus. This has led to a severe deterioration in Ukraine-Belarus relations across economic, political, and security domains.

The relationship between Belarus and Russia has been characterised as strained at times, with Russia cutting economic subsidies to Belarus after Lukashenko accused Russia of trying to incorporate Belarus into Russia. However, the two countries have also demonstrated a strong relationship, with Belarus and Russia sharing a land border and constituting the supranational Union State. Russia is Belarus' largest and most important economic and political partner, and both are members of several international organisations, including the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Eurasian Economic Union.

Since the events of August 2020, when Lukashenko's fraudulent reelection led to mass protests, Belarus has increasingly abandoned its multi-vector foreign policy in favour of prioritising its relationship with Russia. This shift has been driven by Lukashenko's vulnerability and weakened international standing, which have impelled him to seek support from Moscow.

In November 2021, Lukashenko offered to host Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus, and in June 2022, he requested an increased Russian military presence in the country. This was followed by joint military exercises in February 2022, which raised concerns among American policymakers about the potential for Russian incursions into Ukraine. Belarus has also played an enabling role in Russia's coercion campaign against Ukraine, participating in military drills and accusing Kyiv of deploying saboteurs on its territory.

The impact of Russia's war in Ukraine on Belarus' relationship with Russia has been complex. On the one hand, the war has led to increased cooperation between the two countries, with Belarus providing crucial support to Russia's military efforts. On the other hand, it has also resulted in a deterioration of Belarus' relations with Ukraine and heightened concerns among Western countries about Belarus' alignment with Russia.

The role of nuclear weapons in Belarus-Russia relations

Russia's movement of its nuclear weapons to Belarus is a clear political signal, but some experts have downplayed its military significance. The Kremlin's atomic arsenal is now stationed at one of its westernmost deployment points, several hundred miles closer to NATO territory. However, it is argued that the weapons do not pose a higher or lower threat to the alliance simply by being moved several hundred miles.

The movement of nuclear weapons to Belarus is part of a broader pattern of increasing Russian influence in the country, which some have likened to a creeping annexation. Belarus's ruler, Alexander Lukashenko, has been heavily dependent on the Kremlin since 2020, when mass protests against his fraudulent reelection left his regime on the brink of collapse. Putin intervened to prop up Lukashenko, and Russia has since been strengthening its grip on Belarus.

In February 2022, Lukashenko allowed Russian forces to use his country as a base for the invasion of northern Ukraine. After Russia's retreat following the Battle of Kyiv, Putin's army regrouped in Belarus. Lukashenko has also permitted Russia to conduct air strikes on Ukraine from Belarusian territory.

Belarus's new military doctrine appears to emphasise tactical nuclear weapons as a means of preventing others from attacking the country. While high-ranking military officials use generic phrases about the role of tactical nukes, lower-ranking officials hint at provisions for preemptive nuclear strikes against adversaries.

In June 2023, Lukashenko met with Belarus's national security heads to discuss revising the country's military strategy. Lukashenko called for security officials to discard the illusion of a diplomatic settlement in the conflict between Russia and the West, arguing that international law had been unable to relieve the tension. He also said that the possibility of World War III could not be discounted and that security forces must mentally and strategically prepare for this danger. As part of this approach, discussions were held on Belarus's nuclear doctrine and the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons as a deterrent.

The Belarusian Security Council approved a draft of the new National Security Concept and military doctrine, which will be adopted in spring 2024. While the government has made efforts to publicise these documents, their explanations lack details about the Russian tactical nuclear weapons deployed on Belarusian territory.

The National Security Concept mentions nuclear weapons only once, referencing the growing number of states that wish to possess nuclear weapons or deploy them on their territory, primarily in Europe. In contrast, the military doctrine remains unavailable to the public. Belarusian Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin asserted that the document conveys Belarus's views on the tactical nuclear weapons deployed on its territory, stating that they are essential in deterring potential adversaries from attacking Belarus.

Colonel Artyom Butorin, head of the Information and Analytical Department of the Belarusian General Staff, warned against speculation about the new military doctrine. He claimed that the document does not discuss the mechanisms, methods, forms, or tactics of using nuclear weapons. Instead, it outlines political provisions in which atomic weapons are a means of strategic deterrence.

Lower-ranking army officials have made more substantive comments. Colonel Andrei Bogodel, deputy head of the General Staff of the Military Academy of Belarus, claimed that the updated military doctrine provides for the possibility of a preemptive strike on an enemy in the event of an inevitable war or an imminent threat of military aggression from NATO. He quoted Russian President Vladimir Putin: "If a fight is inevitable, strike first". This reflects the idea of preemptive nuclear strikes against European NATO member states recently articulated by prominent pro-Kremlin Russian foreign policy experts.

Russia retains direct control over the nuclear warheads deployed on Belarusian territory through the 12th Main Directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defence. However, Belarus maintains control over the means of their delivery, allowing Minsk to participate in the decision-making process for their potential use. This distribution of functionalities exposes Belarus to potential retaliatory strikes from the US or NATO, although neither Putin nor Lukashenko believes that such retaliation will occur.

Belarus's economic dependence on Russia

Belarus' economic dependence on Russia has been increasing since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Belarus relies heavily on economic and financial support from Moscow, which is provided in exchange for a commitment to further economic integration with Russia. The main areas of dependence include subsidised energy imports, other bilateral trade, transit for exports, and capital inflows, which often come at preferential terms.

Energy Dependence

Belarus has traditionally imported subsidised oil and gas exclusively from Russia. Russian energy subsidies played a significant role in Belarus's economic growth in the early 21st century, allowing the country to save about $5 billion per year, or 15% of GDP, on energy imports on average between 2000 and 2008. Gas imports are crucial, as Belarus used to produce 90% of its electricity and heat from gas. Since 2011, Russia has controlled Belarus's entire gas infrastructure through Gazprom, which also owns the gas storage facilities.

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the price difference between Gazprom's average export prices in Europe and in Belarus surged, resulting in unprecedented savings for Belarus. In 2022, the savings amounted to over $10 billion (14.7% of GDP), and in 2023, they are expected to reach almost $8 billion (11.2% of GDP). Belarus also benefited from a 30% discount on Russian oil compared to market prices, saving up to $2.4 billion (3.4% of GDP) in 2022 and $1.5 billion (2.1% of GDP) in 2023.

Despite these savings, Russian domestic prices are still lower for Russian companies, creating unequal conditions for Belarusian companies in the common market. Belarus is also diversifying its energy mix with Russian support and has built a nuclear power plant, borrowing $5.4 billion from a $10 billion intergovernmental credit line. However, the country remains dependent on Moscow, as it uses Russian technology, fuel supply, and debt servicing.

Trade Ties

Belarus has historically relied heavily on Russia for both exports and imports. Before the war, over 40% of its total exports and 55% of its imports were linked to Russia. This dependence intensified after the outbreak of the war, with Belarusian exports to Russia soaring to over 60% by 2023, facilitated by Western sanctions against Russia and the loss of the Ukrainian market. This record level of trade was partly due to Belarusian companies filling open niches in the Russian market.

However, Belarusian companies now face growing competition from other foreign producers on the Russian market, affecting the sales of goods such as household appliances, machinery, and transport vehicles. Belarus's trade with non-Russian partners is also increasingly conducted via Russian logistical infrastructure and the banking system, further increasing its dependence on Russia.

Transit Dependence

Sanctions have forced Belarus to rely more heavily on Russian logistics, as they have lost access to EU and Ukrainian ports. This has increased costs, with most non-Russian exports now dependent on Russian railways, ports, and banks. Fertilizers and oil products are especially affected, facing significant logistical challenges, reduced export volumes, and profits. In 2023, Belarus used 20 Russian ports, doubling its reliance on Russia for transit, and saw a 130% year-over-year growth in exports through these ports.

Escalating tensions with the EU have further disrupted Belarus's role as a transit route, and freight turnover in the country has declined by 48% since its peak in 2018.

Capital Inflows and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

Since August 2020, Belarus has lost access to international capital markets and major financial institutions, leaving Russia as its primary creditor. By the end of 2022, the Belarusian government owed $10.2 billion to the Russian government, Russian bondholders, and the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) controlled by Russian authorities, comprising nearly 60% of its total government debt. Many Belarusian state-owned enterprises borrow from Russian banks, and the total debt owed to Russia is well over $11 billion.

As of January 1, 2018, 55% of all foreign direct investment (FDI) in Belarus came from Russian investors, who have significant holdings in the energy, telecommunications, and banking sectors. Despite a change in statistical reporting in 2019 that lowered the reported Russian FDI figures, Russia remains the largest foreign investor, especially as Western investors are held back by sanctions and political risks. Russia's influence has grown in the retail sector, with an increase in Russian-owned discount stores and real estate. Over 60% of FDI inflows to Belarus in 2023 came from Russia, highlighting the deepening economic dependence.

Impact of Dependence

Belarus's ever-growing economic dependence on Russia poses serious risks to its sovereignty and economic stability. It makes Belarus even more vulnerable to any political and economic changes in Russia. The country's complicity in Russia's aggression against Ukraine, resulting from its political and military dependence, has also led to Western sanctions that have further isolated it from the West and exacerbated its economic woes.

The Belarusian economy is expected to face a profound recession, with a potential GDP decline of up to 15% in 2022. The country is struggling to refinance its foreign debt, leading to a decline in foreign currency reserves and solvency problems. The only external source of support Belarus can count on is Russia, but even that support is limited due to the sanctions on Russia.

The impact of human rights violations on Belarus's relationship with the West

Belarus's relationship with the West has been strained by the country's human rights violations. The West, including the US and the EU, has imposed sanctions on Belarus in response to its human rights abuses. These sanctions have targeted individuals and entities complicit in human rights violations, such as members of the security forces, judges, and government officials. Additionally, the West has restricted Belarus's access to international organisations and financial institutions, further isolating the country.

The impact of these sanctions and Belarus's response to them have had significant consequences for its relationship with the West. Belarus has sought to strengthen its ties with Russia, which has provided economic and political support. This alignment has raised concerns in the West about Belarus's role in the region, particularly regarding the Ukraine conflict.

Belarus's human rights violations have also led to a breakdown in diplomatic relations with Western countries. The US and EU have repeatedly condemned Belarus for its human rights record and called for the protection of human rights defenders in the country. Western countries have also offered asylum to Belarusian dissidents, which has further strained relations.

The future of Belarus's independence

Belarus's independence is at stake as the country continues to align itself with Russia, becoming increasingly isolated from the West. This shift has been driven by several factors, including deteriorating relations with Western countries, Belarus's strategic importance to Russia, and the personal and political interests of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.

Deteriorating relations with the West

Belarus's relations with Western countries have deteriorated due to concerns over human rights violations, election fraud, and the suppression of dissent. The European Union and the United States have imposed economic sanctions on Belarus, pushing the country further towards Russia.

Strategic importance to Russia

Belarus is strategically important to Russia due to its geographic location between NATO and Russia, as well as its energy trade. Russia needs Belarus as an ally for energy transit, as the pipeline running through Belarus is one of the few reliable transporters of energy resources from Russia to Europe. Additionally, Belarus has served as a "middleman" for Russia during times of escalated tension with the West, importing and re-exporting goods.

Personal and political interests of Alexander Lukashenko

President Lukashenko, who has been in power since 1994, has a history of cracking down on dissent and suppressing democracy movements. He has also been accused of election fraud and human rights abuses, including the unlawful imprisonment of protesters and journalists. Lukashenko's regime has become increasingly isolated from the West, making him more reliant on Russia for support. He has removed the neutrality clause from Belarus's constitution, publicly displaying his allegiance to Russia. However, Lukashenko has also tested Russia's patience by opposing their actions in Ukraine and Crimea, and attempting to improve relations with the West.

The way forward

As the war in Ukraine continues, Belarus is likely to become even more closely aligned with Russia, threatening its independence. Western countries have limited options for prying Belarus away from Russia, and any attempts to do so may provoke countermeasures from Russia. Belarus's future depends on both Lukashenko's political calculations and the outcome of the war in Ukraine. If Russia suffers significant setbacks in Ukraine, Lukashenko may have to choose between standing with Russia or attempting to break free and ally with the West. However, the latter option could provoke the wrath of Russia and lead to severe consequences for Belarus.

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