The Death Of Belarus' President: Fact Or Fiction?

Rumours of the death of the president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, have been circulating since May 2023, when he was rushed back to Minsk from the Victory Day parade in Moscow. Lukashenko, who has been the president of Belarus since 1994, was hospitalised and has not been seen since. The Belarusian government has not commented on his health, but Lukashenko is believed to be suffering from an acute knee problem. Konstantin Zatulin, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Commonwealth of Independent States Affairs, confirmed that the president is ill but did not name the diagnosis.

Alexander Lukashenko's health status

Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus, has been the subject of much speculation regarding his health. In May 2023, the 68-year-old leader's absence from several scheduled appearances fuelled rumours about his health, with some even questioning if he was dead.

Lukashenko was last seen in public on May 9, 2023, at the Victory Day parade in Moscow, where he appeared pale and bloated. He skipped a celebratory breakfast in the Kremlin and flew back to Minsk, where he attended a similar event. However, he failed to make a speech, which was unusual, and then delegated it to his defence minister.

In the following days, Lukashenko cancelled a government meeting and, for the first time in years, did not appear at an important state holiday, Flag Day. This fuelled speculation about his health, with some sources reporting that he had been admitted to hospital.

On May 15, 2023, nearly a week after his last public appearance, Belarusian authorities released photographs and video footage of Lukashenko, attempting to dispel the rumours about his health. The footage showed him visiting an army control point, with his arm heavily bandaged and his voice hoarse and exhausted, appearing to confirm that he had been in poor health.

There has been no official statement from the Belarusian government about Lukashenko's health, and the authorities have remained silent on the matter. However, Russian lawmaker Konstantin Zatulin commented that Lukashenko had simply fallen ill and that there was nothing supernatural about it. He advised the media to focus on official reports.

Lukashenko's health has been a topic of concern, especially given his role as the closest ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Europe. Lukashenko has aided Moscow's invasion of Ukraine by allowing Belarusian territory to be used as a base for launching attacks. His health and any potential impact on his ability to lead the country are, therefore, being closely monitored by those inside and outside Belarus.

Update:

As of November 2024, there have been no further reports of health issues concerning Alexander Lukashenko. He continues to serve as the president of Belarus and has made several public appearances, both within the country and internationally.

The future of Belarus' opposition

The future of the opposition in Belarus is difficult to predict, but there are several factors that will play a role in shaping it. Here are some key considerations:

Political and Social Factors

• The opposition in Belarus has historically consisted of groups and individuals seeking to challenge the authoritarian rule of President Alexander Lukashenko, who has been in power since 1994. They advocate for a parliamentary democracy, freedom of speech, and political and religious pluralism.
• The opposition has faced harsh repression, with many leading figures arrested, exiled, or forced to flee the country. However, they continue to be active and have gained international support, including sanctions against Lukashenko's government by the European Union.
• The opposition is fragmented, with various factions holding different ideologies and goals. This lack of unity could hinder their effectiveness in challenging Lukashenko's rule.
• The Belarusian society is also divided, with support for Lukashenko among the elites, older workers, and government officials, while the opposition tends to be stronger among the middle class and younger voters.
• The opposition has been able to mobilize large-scale protests, particularly in response to controversial elections, economic crises, and Lukashenko's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the success of these protests in bringing about meaningful change remains uncertain.

Economic Factors

• Belarus's economy is heavily dependent on Russia, which buys almost half of its exports and provides subsidized oil and natural gas. This economic dependence gives Russia significant influence over Belarus's policies and has prevented Belarus from fully embracing Western-style economic reforms.
• There is a growing private sector in Belarus, which could lead to increased support for market reforms and reduce the role of the state in the economy. However, the state-owned sector still employs a significant portion of the population and is likely to remain influential.
• Economic stagnation, rising energy prices, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic have created economic challenges for Belarus, leading to protests and dissatisfaction among the population.

Geopolitical Factors

• Belarus's location between Russia and NATO/EU countries makes it a pivotal player in the region. Both Russia and the West seek to maintain influence in Belarus, and this balance of power has been a factor in shaping the country's politics.
• Russia has pushed for closer integration with Belarus, including control over foreign policy and the establishment of Russian military bases. Lukashenko has resisted some of these demands but has also made concessions to maintain Russia's support.
• The relationship between Belarus and Russia has been strained at times, with Russia cutting economic subsidies and applying sanctions. Belarus has responded by diversifying its foreign policy, improving relations with the EU and the US, and exploring alternative sources of investment.

Potential Scenarios

• The future of the opposition in Belarus could unfold in several ways. One scenario is a controlled transition of power, with Lukashenko stepping down and handing over power to a chosen successor who maintains the existing political system. This could lead to a similar regime, albeit with a weaker position for the president and a stronger role for political parties.
• Another scenario is a revolution or a Ukraine-like "Maidan," where mass protests and civil strife lead to a change in government. However, this would likely be met with strong resistance from Lukashenko's security forces and could result in a violent conflict.
• A third scenario is a period of prolonged economic stagnation and political repression, similar to Venezuela, where Lukashenko or his successor maintains power despite growing dissatisfaction and economic decline. This could eventually lead to a power struggle within the government and further instability.

In conclusion, the future of the opposition in Belarus depends on a complex interplay of domestic political, economic, and geopolitical factors. The ability of the opposition to bring about meaningful change will depend on their ability to unite, mobilize popular support, and navigate the complex relationship between Belarus and external powers, especially Russia.

The role of the West in a post-Lukashenko Belarus

The West, led by the United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom, has already taken a strong stance against Lukashenko due to his undemocratic rule and human rights abuses. They have imposed sanctions on him and other Belarusian officials, refused to recognise his legitimacy as president following the disputed 2020 election, and supported the opposition led by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. Therefore, it is likely that the West will continue to play an active role in Belarus even after Lukashenko.

The European Union, in particular, has been at the forefront of criticising Lukashenko and calling for democratic reforms. They have imposed travel bans on Lukashenko and his associates, refused to recognise the results of the 2020 election, and supported the opposition. The EU has also lifted sanctions in the past as a way to encourage dialogue and gain concessions from Lukashenko, indicating a willingness to engage constructively. Post-Lukashenko, the EU will likely push for democratic reforms, free and fair elections, and the protection of human rights in Belarus.

The United States has also been a vocal critic of Lukashenko, with the US Secretary of State calling the 2020 election "not free [or] fair". The US has imposed sanctions on Lukashenko and other officials and refused to recognise the election results. Given the geopolitical importance of Belarus and its relationship with Russia, the US will likely continue to be involved in Belarus post-Lukashenko, advocating for a pro-Western course and supporting democratic reforms.

Russia's influence in Belarus cannot be understated, and the West will need to carefully navigate this dynamic. Lukashenko has relied heavily on Russian support, particularly economic subsidies, to maintain his rule. This has increased following the 2020 election and the subsequent Western sanctions. The West will need to balance their desire to reduce Russian influence in Belarus with the reality of Russia's strong position in the country.

The West may offer economic support and investment to a post-Lukashenko Belarus to help reduce its dependence on Russia. This could take the form of financial aid, trade agreements, and support for Belarus' integration into the global economy. However, this will likely be contingent on democratic reforms and a commitment to human rights, as the West will not want to prop up another authoritarian regime.

Additionally, the West will likely support the development of civil society and independent media in Belarus. This could include funding for non-governmental organisations, training for journalists, and support for educational programmes that promote democratic values and human rights. The goal would be to strengthen Belarusian civil society and empower citizens to hold their government accountable, reducing the risk of a return to authoritarianism.

The possibility of a power struggle in Minsk

Speculation has been mounting about the health and even the mortality of the Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, after he was rushed back to Minsk from the Victory Day parade in Moscow in May 2023. Lukashenko was visibly unwell during the parade and had to be driven in an electric cart. Pictures posted on social media appeared to show an IV catheter protruding from his suit sleeve. He was then hospitalised upon his return to Minsk.

Lukashenko's disappearance from public life and the presidential press service's silence on the matter have fuelled speculation about his health and even whether he has died. This is not the first time Lukashenko has been visibly unwell, and his invisibility since the parade has only added fuel to the fire.

If Lukashenko is dead, in theory, fresh elections should be held and a new president elected. However, this is thought to be unlikely. Belarus was thrown into uproar after Lukashenko falsified the results of the 2020 elections, and fresh elections would almost certainly ignite fresh protests. The authorities will be unwilling to risk a repeat of this.

Lukashenko has already laid the groundwork for one of his sons to take over. He has increased the authority of the Security Council, which his son Viktor previously chaired. If Lukashenko is dead, his loyalist Natalia Kochanova, Chairperson of the Council of the Republic of the National Assembly of Belarus, would preserve stability in the country until a figure is found to replace Lukashenko. Viktor, who served as an Assistant on National Security to his father and is believed to have close ties with the country's security apparatus, could be that figure. However, it is unclear whether the army would remain loyal to him.

Even if Lukashenko recovers and returns to the public arena, a power struggle in Minsk is still a possibility in the future. Lukashenko is the current longest-serving head of state in Europe and has never named a successor. Given that "Europe's last dictator" has presided over an authoritarian government, a power struggle is inevitable when he does eventually die.

The power struggle could take the form of a battle for influence between Russia and the Western powers. Belarus is heavily dependent on Russia, and the Kremlin will likely interfere and push its preferred presidential candidate to maintain the tight bonds between the two countries. On the other hand, the West could use this opportunity to improve its position in Belarus, as Moscow is preoccupied with the war in Ukraine.

The impact of Lukashenko's death on the invasion of Ukraine

As of May 2023, there have been no reports of the death of Alexander Lukashenko, the President of Belarus. However, in May 2023, he was rumoured to be gravely ill or even dead after being rushed back to Minsk from the Victory Day parade in Moscow. He was reportedly hospitalised and has not been seen since.

Lukashenko has been described as a "dictator" and the "last dictator of Europe". He has been a close ally of Russia and allowed Russian troops to use Belarus as a staging ground for the invasion of Ukraine. Despite pressure from Putin, Lukashenko has not directly joined the war or sent his own troops to fight in Ukraine.

• Leadership Transition: If Lukashenko dies, there could be a power struggle within his inner circle, similar to what happened after the death of Turkmen President Saparmut Niyazov in 2006. This could create a vacuum of power in Belarus, allowing Russia to exert even greater influence and possibly install a leader more favourable to its interests. This could result in increased Russian military presence in Belarus and a more aggressive stance towards Ukraine.
• Political Instability: Lukashenko's death could trigger mass protests and political instability in Belarus, especially if there are disputes over the succession or allegations of election rigging. A period of instability could weaken Belarus's position and make it more vulnerable to Russian influence. It could also lead to a diversion of resources and attention away from the war in Ukraine, potentially affecting the course of the invasion.
• Change in Foreign Policy: Lukashenko's death could lead to a shift in Belarus's foreign policy, especially if a more pro-Western leader comes to power. This could reduce Russia's influence in the region and potentially limit its ability to use Belarus as a staging ground for attacks on Ukraine. However, it is unlikely that Belarus would actively support Ukraine against Russia due to their close historical ties and geographical proximity.
• Russian Response: Russia's response to Lukashenko's death would depend on the nature of its relationship with the new leadership in Belarus. If Russia perceives the new leadership as hostile or aligned with the West, it could take aggressive action to protect its interests, including increasing its military presence in Belarus or even attempting a full-scale invasion to install a pro-Russian government.
• Impact on Ukraine: Ukraine would likely view Lukashenko's death with cautious optimism, hoping for a more favourable leader in Belarus who might restrict Russia's ability to use its territory for attacks. However, Ukraine would also be concerned about potential political instability in Belarus and the possibility of increased Russian influence.

In conclusion, the death of Lukashenko could have significant implications for the invasion of Ukraine, potentially affecting the dynamics between Russia and Belarus, as well as the broader geostrategic balance in the region. However, the exact impact would depend on various factors, including the nature of the leadership transition in Belarus and Russia's response to the new leadership.

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