Ukraine's Offensive: Should Belarus Be Next?

The topic of whether Ukraine should attack Belarus is a complex issue with strategic, political, and ethical dimensions. Belarus has been a key ally of Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, providing military bases, logistical support, and supply lines for Russian forces. This has severely strained Ukraine-Belarus relations, leading to a decline in diplomatic engagement and economic cooperation. While Belarus has boosted its military presence on the border and conducted military drills, the likelihood of a direct offensive from Belarus is relatively low. Ukraine has fortified its territory near Belarus and maintained a military presence along the border. However, the possibility of escalation or a renewed offensive from Belarus cannot be ruled out, especially if Russia feels threatened by increased weapons supplies to Ukraine or successful Ukrainian counter-offensives.

Ukraine-Belarus political relations

Ukraine and Belarus have historically had a close relationship, with both countries being full members of the Baku Initiative and Central European Initiative. Both countries share a border and have historically been part of the Kievan Rus, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, the Russian Empire, and the Soviet Union.

However, in recent years, the relationship between Ukraine and Belarus has deteriorated significantly, particularly following the Belarusian protests against President Alexander Lukashenko in 2020, which Ukraine supported. In the lead-up to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Belarus allowed Russian troops and equipment to be stationed on its territory and served as a springboard for offensives into northern Ukraine. This led to a severe deterioration in Ukraine-Belarus relations, with Ukraine divesting from important Belarusian imports and bilateral trade plummeting.

Since the invasion, Ukraine-Belarus political relations have reached their lowest point in history, with minimal communication and significant diplomatic withdrawals. Both countries have recalled their ambassadors and reduced embassy staff. However, Ukraine has maintained diplomatic relations with Belarus for several strategic reasons, including the fact that Belarus is one of the few routes for Ukrainians from occupied territories to reach areas controlled by the Ukrainian government.

In 2024, tensions escalated further as Belarus accused Ukraine of airspace violations and boosted its troop presence on the border. Lukashenko described Ukraine as an "enemy" and claimed that Belarusian troops had a "high combat readiness" near the border. Despite these tensions, the prospect of a serious escalation or a direct offensive launched from Belarusian territory is considered fairly low, as it would threaten Lukashenko's regime and undermine Russia's ability to obtain necessary components and products from Belarus.

Ukraine's northern border security

To ensure the security of its northern border, Ukraine must consider the following strategies:

• Strengthening Military Presence: Ukraine should reinforce its border with Belarus by deploying additional troops, military equipment, and defensive measures. This show of force will deter potential incursions and demonstrate Ukraine's commitment to defending its territory.
• Intelligence and Surveillance: Ukraine should invest in advanced surveillance systems, drones, and intelligence-gathering capabilities to monitor the Belarus-Ukraine border. This includes the use of satellite imagery, radar technology, and human intelligence to detect any signs of hostile activity or troop build-up.
• International Cooperation: Ukraine should continue to seek support from its Western allies, such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and European countries. By sharing intelligence, military equipment, and strategic expertise, Ukraine can enhance its border security capabilities and deter potential aggression from Belarus.
• Diplomatic Efforts: While relations between Ukraine and Belarus are strained, Ukraine can explore diplomatic channels to reduce tensions and prevent further escalation. This may include engaging in dialogue, seeking mediation, or participating in peace talks facilitated by neutral parties.
• Cyber Security: Given the prevalence of cyber attacks during the conflict, Ukraine should invest in robust cyber security measures to protect its critical infrastructure and government agencies. This includes training a specialized cyber force to counter potential cyber threats and disrupt enemy communications.
• Strategic Alliances: Ukraine should continue to foster alliances with neighbouring countries that share its interests in regional stability and security. By strengthening these alliances, Ukraine can create a united front against potential aggression and enhance its overall security posture.

The security of Ukraine's northern border is crucial to the country's overall defence strategy. By implementing a combination of military, diplomatic, and technological measures, Ukraine can effectively protect itself from potential threats emanating from Belarus.

Belarus's role in the conflict

Despite assurances from Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko that he would not involve his country's armed forces in the conflict, there have been reports of Belarusian troops fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine. Lukashenko has walked back on his promise, stating that he would only send soldiers into Ukraine if Belarus was attacked first. Belarus has also become a crucial supplier of military hardware, munitions, and components to Russia. Additionally, Belarus has participated in Russia's psychological and informational operations, creating an impression of potential offensives and escalating tensions.

In recent months, Belarus has continued to boost its military presence on the border with Ukraine, citing violations of its airspace by Ukrainian drones. This has raised concerns about a potential direct involvement in the conflict. However, the prospects for a serious escalation, such as missile or drone attacks, or a repeat offensive launched from Belarusian territory, are considered fairly low. This is partly because turning Belarus into a war zone would be detrimental both to Lukashenko's regime and Russia's interests in the region.

Belarus's involvement in the conflict has had significant implications for its relations with Ukraine and the wider international community. Ukraine has divested from important Belarusian imports, particularly petroleum products, leading to a severe decline in bilateral trade. Political relations have also deteriorated, with minimal communication and diplomatic withdrawals. Belarus has faced condemnation and sanctions from Western countries, including the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan.

Public opinion in Belarus

Despite the difficulties in measuring public opinion in Belarus, several surveys and polls have been conducted, providing some insight into the views of the Belarusian people.

According to a May 2022 survey by the Belarusian Analytical Workshop (BAM), 85% of Belarusians are against their troops joining Russian military action in Ukraine. Only 8% supported sending Belarusian soldiers to Ukraine, a decrease from 11% in March 2022. A June 2022 study by London-based Chatham House showed an even smaller proportion, with only 2% supporting the sending of Belarusian troops.

A survey among opposition-minded Belarusians, conducted in April 2022 by a Telegram-based pollster Narodny opros, showed that 73% felt unsafe discussing politics on the phone, and 66% felt unsafe sharing their opinions online. 100% of the respondents believed that expressing political views in Belarus carries a risk of arrest.

A poll conducted by the Razumkov Centre between February and March 2023 found that 81% of Ukrainian respondents expressed a negative attitude towards Belarus.

According to the latest survey data released by Chatham House, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is trusted by 24% of Belarusians, while opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya and her entourage enjoy the trust of 39%.

A telephone survey of 1,000 Belarusians conducted in December 2020 by the Warsaw-based Center for Eastern Studies found that 41% of Belarusians have a positive attitude towards Lukashenko, while 46% hold a negative view. The attitude towards Russia and Russians is overwhelmingly positive, at 73% and 88% respectively.

A public opinion poll following weeks of protest at the re-election of Lukashenko found that more than 70% of respondents believe the election was a sham, and only 20.6% of respondents said they voted for Lukashenko, while 52.2% cast their vote for Tikhanovskaya.

In summary, public opinion in Belarus appears to be largely opposed to the war in Ukraine and to the sending of Belarusian troops to join the conflict. There is also a significant lack of trust in President Lukashenko, with many Belarusians feeling unsafe to express their political views due to the risk of arrest.

The impact of the conflict on Belarus-Russia relations

Belarus has been a key ally of Russia in the conflict with Ukraine, allowing Russian troops to stage part of the invasion from its territory, and providing access to military airbases and army installations. This has had a significant impact on Belarus-Russia relations, strengthening their military alliance and demonstrating Belarus's dependence on Russia.

The conflict has also led to a shift in Belarus's position on the international stage, with the country becoming more isolated due to Western sanctions. Belarus's involvement in the conflict has resulted in sanctions from the US, UK, and EU, targeting the country's banks, central bank, and military officials. These sanctions have had a significant economic impact, blocking billions of euros' worth of annual exports to the EU.

The conflict has also highlighted the importance of Belarus's geographic location to Russia. Belarus shares a border with Ukraine and provided Russia with the shortest possible land route to Kyiv. This has allowed Russia to approach the capital from the west side of the Dnieper River and launch attacks on nearby cities. Belarus's proximity to Ukraine and its membership in the Union State with Russia have made it a crucial partner for Russia in the conflict.

Additionally, the conflict has impacted the domestic situation in Belarus, with opposition figures and journalists facing repression and exile. President Alexander Lukashenko has become increasingly dependent on Russia, and his regime has been characterised by mass arrests, torture, and the criminalisation of dissent. Lukashenko's claim of victory in the 2020 presidential election was disputed, leading to widespread protests and a crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators. As a result, Belarus has become more isolated from the West, with strained diplomatic ties and limited options for engagement.

In summary, the conflict has strengthened Belarus's military alliance with Russia and increased its dependence on Russian support. It has also led to Belarus's isolation on the international stage due to Western sanctions and highlighted the country's strategic importance to Russia. Finally, the conflict has had domestic repercussions in Belarus, with increased repression and a crackdown on dissent under the Lukashenko regime.

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