Wagner Group's Presence In Belarus: Explained

The Wagner Group is a Russian private military company made up of mercenary fighters, many of whom were recruited from Russian prisons. In June 2023, the group staged a short-lived rebellion in Russia, seizing a city and marching on Moscow before aborting the mission 124 miles from the capital. Following this, the Wagner Group was exiled to Belarus, where they have been training the Belarusian army. The group's presence in Belarus has raised concerns among NATO allies, particularly as they have moved closer to the Polish border. The future of the Wagner Group in Belarus is uncertain, with some reports suggesting they are in the first stage of withdrawal.

Wagner Group's failed mutiny in Russia

On 23 June 2023, the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, staged an uprising against the Government of Russia. The group's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, led Wagner forces into the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, seizing control of the Southern Military District headquarters. Prigozhin had been expressing resentment towards Minister of Defence Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, blaming them for Russia's military inadequacies and accusing them of handing over "Russian territories" to Ukraine. Prigozhin demanded that Shoigu and Gerasimov be removed from their positions and claimed that Russia's justification for attacking Ukraine was a lie.

The following day, an armoured column of Wagner forces advanced towards Moscow, encountering little resistance. However, before they could reach the capital, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko brokered a settlement with Prigozhin, who agreed to halt the rebellion. The Wagner troops abandoned their push to Moscow and withdrew from Rostov-on-Don. As part of the agreement, all charges against Prigozhin and the Wagner Group were dropped, and they were offered the option to join the regular Russian army or go to Belarus.

The failed mutiny had significant repercussions for both Prigozhin and the Wagner Group, as well as for President Putin and the Russian government. Prigozhin was exiled to Belarus, and the group's operations in Ukraine were subsumed by other Russian state and paramilitary units. The mutiny also exposed weaknesses in Russia's security forces and highlighted divisions within the military. It damaged Putin's public image and raised questions about the strength of his grip on power.

In the months following the mutiny, Prigozhin met with Putin and other Kremlin officials, and charges against him were dropped. However, he faced setbacks, including the seizure of his assets and the dismantling of his media empire. The Wagner Group's operations shifted focus to Africa, and they began building a base in Belarus. There were also reports of Wagner mercenaries moving closer to the Polish border, causing concern among NATO allies.

Exile in Belarus

The Wagner Group's presence in Belarus has raised concerns among NATO allies and Ukraine. The group's exile in the country, following a failed mutiny in Russia, has brought them close to the Polish border and within striking distance of Ukraine. This development is especially concerning given the group's history of fighting some of the bloodiest battles in the Russia-Ukraine war.

A Failed Mutiny

The Wagner Group, a Russian private military company made up of mercenary fighters, many recruited from Russian prisons, found themselves exiled to Belarus following a failed mutiny in Russia. The mutiny, which took place on June 23 and 24, 2023, saw the group's fighters seize a city and march on Moscow, getting as close as 124 miles from the capital before a deal ended the rebellion. As a result, the Wagner fighters were given the choice to either join the regular Russian army or go to Belarus, a close ally of Russia.

A Base in Belarus

The Wagner Group chose exile in Belarus, and their arrival in the country was confirmed by Ukraine's border guard service. The group set up a base in the village of Cel (or Tsel), about 90 kilometres from the capital, Minsk. The purpose of their presence was unclear at first, but the Belarusian regime later confirmed that they had been commissioned to train the Belarusian armed forces. The group's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was also offered exile in Belarus, although his whereabouts were unknown for some time following the mutiny.

A Growing Presence

The Wagner Group's presence in Belarus continued to grow, with thousands of mercenaries arriving in the country since the failed uprising. In July 2023, the group was reported to have moved closer to the Polish border, with over 100 mercenaries stationed near the Suwalki Gap, a strategic stretch of Polish territory between Belarus and the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. This development caused alarm in Poland, a member of both the European Union and NATO, which already faced security concerns due to its borders with Russia and Belarus.

A Threat to NATO?

The presence of the Wagner Group in Belarus has raised concerns among NATO allies and Ukraine. In addition to their proximity to Poland, the group's base in Belarus is also within striking distance of Ukraine. While some have dismissed the idea that the Wagner Group could pose a serious threat, their exile in Belarus highlights the difficulties Moscow faces in trying to rein in the mercenary outfit. The group's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has also expressed interest in expanding the group's footprint in Africa, potentially using Belarus as a logistical hub.

Wagner's mission to train the Belarusian army

Wagner Group mercenaries have been training the Belarusian army since 2023. The Wagner Group is a Russian private military company made up of mercenary fighters, many of whom were recruited from Russian prisons. The group's founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was a wealthy businessman and convicted criminal known as "Putin's chef" because he provided catering services for the Kremlin.

In June 2023, around 5,000 Wagner fighters staged a mutiny, occupying the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and marching on Moscow with the aim of ousting the Russian army chief and defence minister. The rebellion was short-lived, as Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko negotiated a deal to allow the Wagner Group to leave Russia safely and be exiled in Belarus.

Under the agreement, Wagner fighters were given the option to join the regular Russian army or go to Belarus. Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin chose to move to Belarus, but his whereabouts are currently unknown. In a video released on July 19, 2023, Prigozhin addressed the Wagner fighters, stating that they would take no further part in the Ukraine war and ordering them to gather their strength for Africa while they trained the Belarusian army.

The Belarusian defence ministry has stated that the Wagner Group is training the country's territorial defence forces in a number of military disciplines near Osipovichy, a town about 85km southeast of the capital Minsk. The training includes combat exercises, tactical shooting, and engineering and tactical training. The presence of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus has raised concerns among NATO allies, particularly Poland, which shares a border with Belarus and has bolstered its border security in response.

The Wagner Group's stated mission, at least for the time being, is to train the Belarusian army and refocus its attention on overseas deployments to the Central African Republic, Mali, and other resource-rich fragile states. The group has a history of operating in Africa, with previous involvement in Mali, the Central African Republic, Sudan, and Libya.

Wagner's proximity to the Polish border

Wagner Group's proximity to the Polish border has been a cause for concern for Poland and other NATO allies. In July 2023, the Polish Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, stated that over 100 Wagner mercenaries had moved close to the Suwalki Gap, a strategic stretch of Polish territory between Belarus and Kaliningrad, a Russian territory. This proximity heightened fears of a potential hybrid attack on Polish territory and raised concerns about the group's intentions.

The presence of Wagner Group in Belarus has been a source of tension due to the group's history of challenging President Vladimir Putin's authority and their involvement in Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The group's proximity to the Polish border adds to the complexity of the situation, bringing potential security risks to Poland, a member of both the European Union and NATO.

In response to the growing tensions, Poland has previously accused Russia and Belarus of using migrants to destabilize its territory and that of other EU countries. This led to Poland constructing a wall along parts of its border with Belarus to mitigate the influx of immigrants from the Middle East and Africa.

The Wagner Group's proximity to the Polish border also raises concerns about the potential for direct conflict with NATO allies. There have been reports suggesting that Wagner troops were agitating to cross the border into Poland, which, if realized, could expand the scope of the conflict and invoke NATO's mutual defense clauses.

The future of the Wagner Group in Belarus remains uncertain, with reports suggesting that their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, may have died and that the group could be in the process of withdrawing from the country. However, as long as the Wagner Group maintains its presence in Belarus, the proximity to the Polish border will continue to be a critical factor in regional security dynamics.

The future of Wagner in Belarus after Yevgeny Prigozhin's death

The Wagner Group's future in Belarus is uncertain following the death of its founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin. Prigozhin was a former convict who spent almost a decade building the Wagner Group, a private military company, and was a close confidant of Russian President Vladimir Putin. In June 2023, Prigozhin launched a rebellion against the Russian military leadership, which was called off a day later. As part of the agreement to end the mutiny, Prigozhin and thousands of Wagner fighters were exiled to Belarus, where they have been training the Belarusian army and refocusing their attention on overseas deployments.

The group's long-term viability is in question, and its presence in Belarus has raised concerns among NATO allies, particularly as some Wagner troops have moved closer to the Polish border. The future of the Wagner Group may depend on who succeeds Prigozhin as its leader. Dr Joana de Deus Pereira, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), predicts that the group will undergo "a certain revamping" and continue its operations, possibly under a different name. Ruslan Trad, a security analyst with the Atlantic Council, suggests that the new leader will likely have connections to Russia's military intelligence service, the GRU, and that the main challenge for Putin may be finding someone with sufficient funds who does not pose a direct challenge to his regime.

One possible contender for the role is GRU General Andrey Averyanov. Benoît Bringer, a journalist whose documentary charted the rise of the paramilitary group, suggested that Putin needed time to secretly organise the transition, which could explain the two-month gap between Prigozhin's death and the emergence of a new leader. While the Wagner Group's operations in Belarus and Ukraine may be minimal in the short term, the group's presence and influence in Africa are expected to continue, with some analysts predicting that the group will splinter into two factions, one based in Belarus and the other continuing its foreign operations.

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