The Looming Threat Of Poland's Influence On Belarus

Tensions have been rising between Poland and Belarus, with both countries deploying troops to their shared border. Poland has also begun building a £1.9 billion 'East Shield' along its border with Belarus, which will include anti-tank fortifications, bunkers, and other obstacles. This comes in response to Russia's war in Ukraine and what the Polish government labels 'hybrid war' tactics by Belarus and Russia. In addition, Poland has accused Belarus and Russia of weaponizing migration to benefit Europe's far-right. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned Poland that any attack on Belarus will be considered an attack on Russia.

Poland's 'East Shield'

Poland has begun constructing a £1.9 billion 'East Shield' along its borders with Russia and Belarus. The 400-mile-long construction will include anti-tank fortifications, bunkers, and other obstacles designed to physically defend the border and control movement. This comes in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and what the Polish government labels 'hybrid war' tactics by Belarus and Russia.

The 'East Shield' will also feature anti-drone systems and state-of-the-art surveillance technologies, powered by artificial intelligence, to aid in early threat detection. Additionally, a satellite component will be included to provide 'another element of safety in space', according to Poland's Prime Minister, Donald Tusk.

The multi-layered line of defences is expected to be around 200 metres deep and will consist of fences, ditches, and minefields. A high border fence will serve as the first barrier, followed by barbed wire and anti-tank trenches. Concrete blocks known as 'dragon's teeth' will also be placed to impede the movement of armoured vehicles. Bunkers and underground shelters will be concealed within forests to provide protection in the event that the defences fail.

The project is one of the most significant national security investments in Poland's post-war history. It is expected to be completed by 2028 and will strengthen Poland's eastern defences, particularly along the Suwalki Gap, a strategic area that links the Baltic states to the rest of the NATO alliance and the EU.

Poland's government has stated that it will not be intimidated and is committed to building up its defence and deterrence capabilities. This includes moving troops and modern equipment to the country's eastern border with Belarus and Kaliningrad.

Poland's stance on migration

Migration and the 2023 Polish Election

Migration emerged as one of the dominant themes during the 2023 Polish parliamentary election campaign, with the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party attempting to reframe the debate around the EU "migration pact". PiS, the governing party at the time, sought to mobilise its core supporters and persuade disillusioned former voters by emphasising national security concerns related to immigration. They argued that uncontrolled mass migration, particularly from Muslim-majority countries, threatened Poland's security and sovereignty.

The opposition, led by the liberal-centrist Civic Platform (PO), countered by pointing out the ineffectiveness of the Belarussian border fence and accusing PiS of hypocrisy, as Poland had experienced its largest-ever wave of immigration under their rule. A scandal involving Polish consular officials issuing work visas to Asian and African migrants in exchange for bribes further damaged PiS's credibility on the migration issue.

Impact of the War in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine has significantly impacted Poland's stance on migration. As of mid-March 2024, Poland had recorded close to 1.8 million people displaced by the war, with about a million of them living in the country. This has placed a strain on Poland's resources and fuelled anti-immigration sentiments.

Integration of Migrants

Poland has been criticised for its lack of a comprehensive national integration strategy for migrants. While there have been efforts at the local level and through non-profit organisations, Poland's approach to integration has been characterised as providing "equality on paper". There are concerns that the social assistance system does not adequately support the integration of beneficiaries of international protection into Polish society, with many struggling to obtain permanent employment and becoming dependent on social assistance.

Border Security

In response to the increased migratory pressure and tensions with neighbouring countries, Poland has taken several measures to secure its borders. This includes the construction of the £1.9 billion 'East Shield', a 400-mile-long fortification along its borders with Russia and Belarus, equipped with anti-tank fortifications, bunkers, and state-of-the-art surveillance technology. Poland has also deployed thousands of troops to its border with Belarus as a deterrent measure.

Putin's warning to Poland

Russia's Response to Poland's East Shield

On Friday, July 22, 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Poland that any attack on Belarus would be considered an attack on Russia. Putin's statement was a direct threat to the NATO country, televised during a Security Council meeting. Putin's warning came in response to Poland's decision to reposition its military units closer to the Belarusian border.

Poland's East Shield

Poland has begun constructing a £1.9 billion "East Shield" along its borders with Russia and Belarus. The 400-mile-long project includes anti-tank fortifications, bunkers, and other obstacles designed to physically defend the border and control movement. The shield will also feature anti-drone systems and state-of-the-art surveillance technologies, including AI-powered systems for early threat detection.

Tensions Between Poland and Belarus

Tensions between Poland and Belarus have been escalating due to several factors. Poland has supported the Belarusian opposition since the 2020 presidential elections, which were widely seen as rigged, resulting in pro-Russian leader Alexander Lukashenko winning a sixth term. Additionally, Belarus has been accused of orchestrating migrant surges towards the European Union, in collaboration with Russia. Poland, as a member of NATO and the EU, has been at the forefront of these tensions.

Putin's Message

In his address, Putin claimed that Poland appeared to have interests in reclaiming eastern territories lost to the former Soviet Union, including parts of Ukraine and Belarus. Putin's warning carries significant weight due to Russia's military support for Belarus during its war in Ukraine. The presence of Russian Wagner mercenaries in Belarus and the relocation of nuclear weapons closer to the NATO eastern frontier further heighten the tensions.

Regional Strategic Importance

The region holds strategic importance as Poland's eastern border includes the Suwalki Gap, a critical link between the three Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia) and the rest of the NATO alliance and the EU. Military analysts have long viewed this area as a potential flashpoint in any confrontation between Russia and NATO, raising concerns about Russia's intentions.

Poland's Response

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki defended the relocation of troops, citing reports of training exercises between the Belarusian army and Wagner mercenaries. Poland has also increased its defense spending and continues to strengthen its border defenses.

Belarus' stance on migration

Belarus's stance on migration has been a source of tension with its neighbours and the wider international community. The country has been accused of coordinating an influx of migrants to the borders of Lithuania, Poland, and Latvia—a move seen as an attempt to cause instability in Europe.

In August 2021, the Belarusian government began facilitating the movement of thousands of migrants, mainly from the Middle East and North Africa, to its borders with Lithuania, Poland, and Latvia. This led to a sharp increase in unauthorized border crossing attempts, with tens of thousands of attempts recorded between August and December 2021. The number of migrants attempting to cross the border fell in 2022 but rose again in the spring of 2024, although it remained below the peak of the crisis in 2021.

The European Union (EU) and independent observers viewed this as a form of hybrid warfare in response to the deterioration of Belarus's relations with the EU following the 2020 Belarusian presidential election and the subsequent protests. The 2020 election, which resulted in the victory of pro-Russian leader Alexander Lukashenko, was widely seen as rigged by the Western community. As a result, the EU imposed sanctions on Belarusian officials.

In response to the migrant crisis, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia each declared a state of emergency and announced their intentions to build border walls. The EU provided support by sending officers and patrol cars to Lithuania, and 12 EU governments stated their support for a physical barrier. Poland and Lithuania eventually completed their border barriers independently after the EU refused to finance the project.

Human Rights Watch and other organizations accused Belarusian authorities of manufacturing the crisis and exploiting migrants. They reported that Belarusian border guards assaulted migrants, denied them the right to lodge asylum claims, and provided inadequate food, water, and shelter. In contrast, Polish officials were criticized for restricting access to the border for journalists, doctors, and non-governmental organizations.

The migrant crisis has been characterized as a geopolitical crisis, with migrants being used as a tool by the Belarusian regime to weaken NATO and the EU. Lukashenko's threat to "flood the EU with migrants and drugs" was seen as an attempt to demonstrate the inability of Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland to maintain border security and protect their citizens.

To address the situation, Poland has deployed thousands of troops to its border with Belarus and is building a $1.9 billion 'East Shield' along its borders with Russia and Belarus. This construction includes anti-tank fortifications, bunkers, and other obstacles to physically defend the border.

Poland's military spending

Poland has been increasing its military spending in response to the growing tensions with neighbouring Belarus. In 2022, Poland spent 2.4% of its GDP on defence, ranking third in NATO after the United States and Greece. In 2023, Poland increased its defence spending to over 2.5% of GDP, and in 2024, it is expected to spend over 4% of its GDP on defence. This is the highest proportion in NATO and will amount to $33.23 billion.

Poland's increased military spending has been driven by several factors, including its support for Ukraine in the ongoing war with Russia and its long border with Belarus, which has become a Kremlin puppet state. Poland has also been concerned about the presence of Russian Wagner mercenaries in Belarus and the movement of Russian short-range nuclear weapons into the country.

The Polish government has prioritised defence and deterrence, moving troops and modern equipment to the border with Belarus. Poland has made significant arms purchases from the United States, South Korea, and the United Kingdom, including tanks, helicopters, rocket launchers, air defence systems, and combat aircraft. It has also transferred arms to Ukraine, including jets, tanks, and howitzers.

Poland's ruling nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party has put security at the core of its campaign ahead of the October 2024 elections. However, economists have warned that increased defence spending could hamper the country's fight against inflation and raise the deficit to dangerous levels.

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