The Ever-Changing Landscape Of Afghanistan: A 30-Year Transformation

Afghanistan has undergone significant political, social, and economic changes over the last 30 years. The country has a long history of foreign conquest and internal strife, with various powers vying for control and shaping its trajectory.

In the early 1990s, Afghanistan was embroiled in civil war and factional fighting, leading to the rise of the Taliban and the establishment of an Islamic Emirate. This period witnessed a rollback of women's rights and the imposition of strict Islamic laws. The Taliban's rule was briefly interrupted by the US-led invasion in 2001, which aimed to dismantle terrorist networks and establish a democratic government. However, despite international efforts, Afghanistan continued to struggle with instability, corruption, and a fragile economy.

The recent withdrawal of US and allied forces in 2021 created a power vacuum, allowing the Taliban to regain control rapidly. This shift has resulted in a regression of rights and freedoms, particularly for women and girls, and a worsening humanitarian crisis. The country now faces economic isolation, a crumbling economy, and a dire food security situation, exacerbated by climate change and global events.

The Taliban's rise and fall

The Taliban is a Sunni Islamic fundamentalist and predominantly Pashtun movement that controlled most of Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001.

The Taliban's rise was facilitated by the power vacuum left by the Soviet Union's withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989. The Taliban, one of the guerrilla factions funded by the CIA during the Soviet occupation, moved into the capital city of Kabul in 1996. They established the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and quickly gained control of 95% of the country. The Taliban enforced strict laws based on their interpretation of Islam, including banning television and music, restricting women's rights, and implementing public executions and amputations.

The Taliban's rule came to an end following the September 11, 2001 attacks in the United States by al-Qaeda. Osama bin Laden, the leader of al-Qaeda, had been living in Afghanistan as a guest of the Taliban. In response to the attacks, the United States invaded Afghanistan in October 2001 and quickly ousted the Taliban regime. The Taliban leadership relocated to southern Afghanistan and Pakistan, from where they waged an insurgency against the Western-backed government in Kabul and coalition troops.

Despite the presence of coalition forces, the Taliban continued to attack rural districts and carry out suicide attacks in major cities. In 2020, after more than a year of direct negotiations, the United States and the Taliban signed a peace deal, the Doha Agreement, which set a timeline for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. However, the Taliban quickly resumed attacks, and by 2021, they had captured and contested significant territory across the country. In August 2021, the Taliban entered Kabul, leading to the collapse of the Afghan government and the withdrawal of U.S. forces.

The Taliban's resurgence has resulted in a rollback of liberal and democratic rights in Afghanistan. Girls are once again barred from secondary schools, and women face restrictions on travel and employment. The Taliban has also reintroduced public flogging, executions, and other harsh punishments. The international community has largely refused to recognize the Taliban government due to concerns over its restrictive policies, particularly regarding women's rights.

The US-led invasion

The invasion marked the first phase of what would become the 20-year-long War in Afghanistan. The stated goal was to dismantle al-Qaeda, which had executed the attacks under the leadership of Osama bin Laden, and to deny Islamist militants a safe base of operations in Afghanistan by toppling the Taliban government.

The American military presence in Afghanistan bolstered the Northern Alliance, which had been locked in a losing fight with the Taliban during the Afghan Civil War. Prior to the invasion, the Taliban had seized around 85% of Afghanistan's territory, as well as the capital city of Kabul, effectively confining the Northern Alliance to Badakhshan Province and smaller surrounding areas.

The invasion of Afghanistan began on October 7, 2001, with US and UK warplanes pounding Taliban targets. In late October, Northern Alliance forces began to overtake a series of towns formerly held by the Taliban. The forces worked with US assistance but defied US wishes when, on November 13, they marched into Kabul as the Taliban retreated without a fight.

Kandahar, the largest city in southern Afghanistan and the Taliban’s spiritual home, fell on December 6, marking the end of Taliban power. As the Taliban leadership retreated into Afghanistan’s rural areas and across the border to Pakistan, anti-Taliban figures convened at a United Nations (UN)-sponsored conference in Bonn, Germany. With behind-the-scenes manoeuvring by the United States, Hamid Karzai was selected to lead the country on an interim basis.

An intensive manhunt for Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar, bin Laden, and al-Qaeda deputy chief Ayman al-Zawahiri was undertaken. The Americans were believed to have come closest to bin Laden in the December 2001 battle of Tora Bora (bin Laden’s mountain stronghold). However, bin Laden was thought to have slipped into Pakistan with the help of Afghan and Pakistani forces that were supposedly helping the Americans.

Critics later questioned why the US military had allowed Afghan forces to lead the assault on the cave complex at Tora Bora rather than doing it themselves. Indeed, Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry made this criticism repeatedly during the 2004 general election campaign.

The war on terror

The war's initial phase ended with the fall of the Taliban regime, which unravelled rapidly after its loss at Mazar-e-Sharif on November 9, 2001, to forces loyal to Abdul Rashid Dostum, an ethnic Uzbek military leader. Over the next week, Taliban strongholds crumbled after coalition and Northern Alliance offensives.

The war's next phase involved Operation Anaconda, the first major ground assault and the largest operation since Tora Bora, which was launched against an estimated 800 Al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters in the Shah-i-Kot Valley. Despite the operation's size, however, Anaconda did not represent a broadening of the war effort. Instead, Pentagon planners began shifting military and intelligence resources away from Afghanistan in the direction of Saddam Hussein's Iraq.

In 2006, NATO assumed control of international security forces in Afghanistan, expanding its role across the country. It was NATO's first operational commitment outside of Europe.

In 2009, President Obama announced a new strategy for the war effort, linking success in Afghanistan to a stable Pakistan. The core goal of the strategy was to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat Al-Qaeda and its safe havens in Pakistan, and to prevent their return to Pakistan or Afghanistan.

In 2011, Obama announced a timetable for withdrawing most US forces by 2014. This was followed by the Taliban's rapid advance, during which they captured all but two of Afghanistan's provincial capitals and seized border crossings. Afghan security forces in some areas reportedly negotiated surrenders and avoided fighting the Taliban.

In 2021, the United States forces and allies withdrew from Afghanistan, which allowed the Taliban to intensify their insurgency and recapture Kabul.

The humanitarian crisis

Afghanistan has been facing a complex and severe humanitarian crisis for the last 30 years. The crisis has been driven by conflict, violence, poverty, natural disasters, and drought. The crisis has been exacerbated by the Taliban takeover in August 2021, which has resulted in the country's economic collapse and further deterioration of the humanitarian situation.

Impact on Women and Girls

Impact on Children

The crisis has also affected children, with over 8.7 million requiring educational support. The United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) estimates that there are currently 15.3 million children in Afghanistan who need life-saving aid. The situation has been further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, with Afghanistan constituting one of the largest refugee populations worldwide.

Impact on Healthcare and Food Security

The healthcare system in Afghanistan is collapsing, with a near-total collapse already observed in some areas. Food insecurity is widespread, with acute malnutrition affecting both children and adults. The World Food Programme estimates that over 15 million people face acute food insecurity, with 2.8 million just one step away from famine.

International Response

The international community has been providing humanitarian relief to Afghanistan, but the response has been inadequate due to limited funding and the complex set of sanctions that complicate aid delivery. The World Bank and other organizations have provided support, but the funding gap remains significant.

Way Forward

The way forward for Afghanistan requires long-term sustainable solutions, increased humanitarian assistance, economic stability, and resumed development aid. Addressing the deep-seated economic challenges is crucial to breaking the cycle of crises.

The economic outlook

Afghanistan's economic outlook remains uncertain, with the threat of stagnation looming until at least 2025. The country's economy is facing multiple challenges, including declining external financing avenues, structural deficiencies in the private sector, and waning international support for essential services.

The absence of GDP growth, coupled with declining access to external financing for off-budget expenditures, paints a bleak picture of the country's economic prospects. The World Bank has identified that Afghanistan's long-term growth prospects rely on a significant shift from reliance on international aid and consumption-driven growth to a more resilient, private sector-led economy that capitalizes on the country's inherent strengths.

The country's agricultural and extractive sectors could be key drivers of growth and poverty reduction, with the potential to create jobs. However, strategic investments in infrastructure, land tenure security, research, and market access are needed to enhance agricultural productivity and resilience. These efforts should be supported by investments in human capital and the creation of institutional frameworks to foster a conducive business environment.

The economic situation in Afghanistan has been impacted by various factors, including the withdrawal of U.S. and allied forces, the Taliban's takeover, and the resulting international sanctions and isolation. The revocation of the country's central bank's credentials and the termination of significant development aid have crippled the economy, with skyrocketing inflation further exacerbating the crisis.

The Taliban's restrictions on women and girls have also drawn criticism and concerns from the international community, complicating the country's ability to obtain external assistance. The Taliban's strict laws and regressive policies have led to a rollback of human rights and freedoms, negatively impacting the lives of Afghans, especially women and girls.

The country is facing cascading and compounding humanitarian crises, with Afghans suffering from food shortages, increased food prices due to the Russia-Ukraine war, and the impact of climate change. The United Nations has launched the largest single-country aid appeal in its history to address the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan.

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