Russia's Expansionist Ambitions: Belarus In The Crosshairs?

Russia and Belarus have shared a close relationship since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Both countries are members of the supranational Union State and are part of several international organisations, including the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Union, and the Collective Security Treaty Organization. In 1999, the leaders of the two countries signed a treaty to create a union state, which set a legal basis for integration. In 2019, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated that the two countries could unite, however, he has also previously dismissed suggestions that he would allow Belarus to fall under Kremlin governance, stating that sovereignty is sacred. In 2023, a document allegedly leaked from Russia's presidential administration outlined plans to absorb Belarus by 2030, however, Lukashenko has since denied this, stating that Russia has no intention of absorbing the republic.

Putin's presidential term will end in 2024, and he cannot run again under the current constitution

Russian President Vladimir Putin's current term will end in 2024, and he cannot run again under the current constitution. However, Putin has twice amended the constitution to allow him to extend his rule. In 2008, he stepped aside to become prime minister due to term limits but continued to call the shots while his associate Dmitry Medvedev served as a placeholder president. Then, in 2020, Putin oversaw sweeping constitutional reforms that allowed him to run for two more six-year terms as president, potentially extending his rule until 2036.

Despite these changes, Putin has maintained that he has not decided whether to run again in 2024. In 2020 and 2021, he stated that it was too early to talk about it, and that he had not yet made a decision. However, in December 2023, Putin announced his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election, which he is all but certain to win.

Putin's decision to prolong his rule comes amid a backdrop of increasing tensions with the West, economic challenges, and the costly war in Ukraine. Putin's popularity had been dipping, and it has been speculated that the conflict in Ukraine was started to consolidate his power and support for his reelection.

The potential for a union with Belarus has also been floated as a way for Putin to bypass constitutional restrictions and remain in power beyond 2024. In 2019, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated that Belarus and Russia "could unite tomorrow, no problem", an idea that Putin has backed for years. However, Lukashenko has also emphasised the importance of Belarusian sovereignty and dismissed suggestions that he would allow his nation to fall under Kremlin governance.

The relationship between Russia and Belarus has been described as strained at times, with disputes over oil and gas supplies, and Belarus's increasing drift away from Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Despite this, the two countries have a long history of cooperation and are economically and politically intertwined, with Russia being Belarus's largest and most important economic and political partner. They are also engaged in various joint military activities and are both members of the Eurasian Economic Union.

In September 2021, Putin and Lukashenko announced they had agreed on 28 union state programs intended to bind the two countries more closely together. While the prospect of political integration was publicly played down, Putin indicated his desire to lay an "economic foundation" for future political integration. The details of their talks were largely kept secret, but it is clear that Russia is seeking to exert influence on Belarus and retain it in its political and economic orbit.

The two countries share a land border and constitute the supranational Union State

Belarus and Russia share a land border and have constituted the supranational Union State since 1999. The Union State was formed on the basis of several treaties concluded between the two nations bilaterally. The Union State is an attempt to maintain the unity of the two countries after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia is Belarus' largest and most important economic and political partner. Belarus exports nearly half of its products to Russia, and the growth of Belarus' GDP is heavily dependent on its integration with Russia. Both countries are members of various international organisations, including the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Union, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and the United Nations.

The Union State has been a long time coming. In 1995, the border between the two countries was destroyed, but in 2014, the border was restored from the Belarusian side. In February 2017, Russia created a border zone on the part of the Smolensk Oblast.

The Union State is more than just a symbolic agreement. It has real implications for the two countries, especially in terms of economic integration. In 2020, Russia temporarily suspended its discounted sale of oil to Belarus, which led to a trade dispute. Belarus started to diversify its oil imports, receiving oil from countries like Norway, Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. This incident highlighted the importance of the Union State for both countries, as it provided a framework for resolving such disputes.

The Union State also has military implications. Russia and Belarus have close military relations and are engaged in various joint military-scientific activities. Russia operates several military bases and radars in Belarus, including the Hantsavichy Radar Station and the Vileyka VLF transmitter. The two countries also conduct joint military drills, such as the large-scale Russian-Belarusian military manoeuvre "Zapad-2021" in 2021.

The Union State is a complex and multifaceted arrangement that has evolved over time. It is a product of the shared history and geographical proximity of the two countries. While it has faced challenges and setbacks, it remains an important aspect of the relationship between Belarus and Russia.

Belarus is Russia's largest and most important economic and political partner

Belarus and Russia share a land border and have constituted a supranational Union State since 1999. Russia is Belarus' largest and most important economic and political partner. As of 2009, Russia accounted for some 48% of Belarus' external trade, while Belarus made up around 6% of Russia's trade. At the end of 2022, mutual trade between the two countries increased by almost 15%, with Russia now accounting for more than half of Belarus' foreign trade.

The two countries are members of several international organisations, including the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Union, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and the United Nations. They also coordinate their foreign policies according to a programme of agreed measures in the field of foreign policy, which is renewed every two years.

Russia and Belarus have set up a joint regional military force, coordinate their air defence systems, and perform joint military exercises. They also cooperate in the fields of security and defence, anti-terrorist activities, and the fight against crime, signing a number of bilateral agreements in the field of military and technical cooperation.

In addition to economic and political ties, Belarus and Russia have strong cultural links. They hold joint cultural projects, such as the annual festival Slaviansky Bazar in Vitebsk, as well as various other joint art, theatre, and cinema festivals.

The partnership between Belarus and Russia is based on the geographic location, close historical and cultural links, and economic ties between the two countries and their peoples. The Agreement on the Establishment of the Union State of Belarus and Russia, signed in 1999, set up a legal basis for integration between the two countries, with the goal of establishing a single economic and customs area, among other objectives.

The integration process has been gradual, with both countries moving forward while taking into consideration the priority of social and economic matters. The partnership is maintained under the unquestioned principles of state sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as the due implementation of their international obligations.

The United States and the European Union no longer recognise Lukashenko as the country's president

The United States and the European Union no longer recognise Lukashenko as the president of Belarus. The US State Department has explicitly stated that it "cannot consider Alexander Lukashenko the legitimately elected leader of Belarus". The EU's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, has also said that the bloc does not recognise Lukashenko as the president of Belarus.

This is due to the highly disputed 2020 election, in which Lukashenko secured 80% of the vote, and which has been described as "neither free nor fair" by the US and its European allies. The election triggered mass protests, which have been met with brutality, arrests, and violence. Lukashenko has also been accused of rigging previous elections, and of authoritarianism, including the use of torture and sexual abuse against detainees.

As a result of the 2020 election, the US, the UK, Canada, and the EU have imposed sanctions on Lukashenko, his son, and multiple senior officials in the Belarusian government. These include asset freezes and travel bans. Lukashenko was also under EU sanctions until 2016, when Belarus released a number of political prisoners.

Russia and Belarus have close military relations and are engaged in joint military-scientific activities

Russia and Belarus have a history of close military cooperation. Both countries are members of the supranational Union State and are parties to several bilateral treaties. They are also members of several international organisations, including the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Union, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and the United Nations.

Russia is Belarus' largest and most important economic and political partner, accounting for around 48% of Belarus' external trade. Belarus, in turn, accounts for about 6% of Russia's trade. This economic interdependence is underpinned by a shared land border and a long history of cultural exchange.

The two countries have engaged in joint military exercises and drills, with Russian and Belarusian armed forces participating in joint operational exercises and combat training on each other's territories. For example, in September 2011, the Union Shield 2011 joint exercise allowed both countries to improve interoperability and field craft when accomplishing missions jointly.

Russia and Belarus also cooperate in the field of military science. They are engaged in joint military-scientific activities, including the development of proposals for improving their regulatory legal base in the sphere of defence and the exchange of defence and dual-purpose products. They also jointly train scientists and military personnel, with Belarusian service members receiving training in Russian military schools.

Russia operates several military bases and radars in Belarus, including the Hantsavichy Radar Station and the Vileyka VLF transmitter. In February 2022, Russia used Belarusian territory to stage part of its invasion of Ukraine, highlighting the close military cooperation between the two countries.

Despite occasional tensions and disputes, Russia and Belarus have maintained a strong military alliance, with their joint military-scientific activities contributing to the security of the Union State.

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