Belarus' Geopolitical Position: Friend Or Foe?

Belarus, officially the Republic of Belarus, is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe. It shares borders with Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. Belarus has historically had close ties with Russia, and the two countries signed the Union State Foundation Treaty in 1999, which aimed to create a politically integrated confederation. Belarus has also been a close ally of Russia in its war with Ukraine, with the Kremlin using Belarusian territory to launch missile attacks on Ukrainian cities. However, Belarus has refused to get directly involved in the conflict, with President Lukashenko stating that Belarus does not plan to attack Ukraine. The future of Belarus's relationship with Russia is uncertain, as the Kremlin's actions in Ukraine have made many Belarusians worried that they might be next.

Belarus's stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict

However, Belarus's political crisis in 2020 increased President Aliaksandr Lukashenka's dependence on the Kremlin, and he became Russia's crucial ally in the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Belarus has provided its territory for missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and logistical support for the Russian army. Despite this, Lukashenka has stated that Belarus "does not plan" to attack Ukraine and has "no desire" to send compatriots to fight.

Belarus's society and military are strongly against the country's direct participation in the war with Ukraine. Lukashenka has also attempted to resume dialogue with the West and reach a separate agreement, offering to turn the page" of confrontation and remove sanctions. However, the Kremlin's decision to hold pseudo-referendums in the occupied territories of Ukraine and announce mobilisation has put pressure on Lukashenka to either sharply distance himself from Russia or join the total war.

The future of Belarus's involvement in the conflict remains uncertain, but there are mounting concerns that the country will become more directly involved, particularly if Lukashenka's regime recognises the pseudo-referendums, which would force the Belarusian army to enter a full-scale war.

The country's relationship with Russia

Belarus and Russia have historically shared close ties, with the two countries signing a treaty in 2000 for greater cooperation, forming the Union State. Belarus is dependent on Russia for imports of raw materials and for its export market, and Russia is Belarus's primary export market and commercial partner. The Union State, a supranational confederation between Belarus and Russia, was established in a series of treaties from 1996 to 1999, which called for monetary union, equal rights, single citizenship, and a common foreign and defence policy. However, the future of the union has been placed in doubt due to Belarus's repeated delays in monetary union and the lack of a referendum date for the draft constitution.

Belarus and Russia have also had several disputes in the 2000s, including the 2004 Russia–Belarus energy dispute, the 2007 Russia–Belarus energy dispute, and the so-called Milk War, a trade dispute that started when Russia wanted Belarus to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

In recent years, the relationship between Belarus and Russia has been influenced by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While Belarus acted as a mediator and peacemaker during the 2014 Ukrainian crisis, taking a neutral stance on Russia's annexation of Crimea, the 2020 political crisis in Belarus increased President Aliaksandr Lukashenka's dependence on the Kremlin, and he became Russia's crucial ally in the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. There are mounting concerns that Belarus will become more directly involved in the Ukrainian crisis, as anti-Western rhetoric from the Lukashenka regime escalates and military activity on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border increases.

Belarusian society and the Belarusian military are strongly against the direct participation of Belarus in the war with Ukraine. However, if Lukashenka's regime recognizes the pseudo-referendums held in the occupied territories of Ukraine, it would be forced to consider any offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces as an attack on Russian territory, triggering the obligations of bilateral agreements between Moscow and Minsk within the framework of the Union State, which would force the Belarusian army to enter a full-scale war.

The country's relationship with Ukraine

Belarus has historically maintained close ties with its neighbour Russia, and this remains the case in the 21st century. Belarusians generally feel a closer affinity with Russia than with Ukraine, but they have refused to get involved in the conflict between the two countries, insisting that it is "not our war".

During the 2014 Ukrainian crisis, Belarus acted as a mediator and peacemaker, taking a neutral stance on Russia's annexation of Crimea. However, the 2020 political crisis in Belarus increased President Alexander Lukashenko's dependence on the Kremlin, and he became Russia's crucial ally in the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. As anti-Western rhetoric from the Lukashenko regime continues to escalate, and military activity on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border increases, there are mounting concerns that Belarus will become more directly involved in the Ukrainian crisis.

Belarus is dependent on Russia for imports of raw materials and for its export market. In 1999, the two countries signed the Union State Foundation Treaty, which aimed to create a politically integrated confederation with a common currency. While the precise nature of the partnership remains unclear, Belarus's primary export market and commercial partner remains Russia.

The escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine puts Belarus at risk of direct entry into the war. If Lukashenko's regime recognises pseudo-referendums held in occupied territories, it must consider any offensive by Ukrainian forces as an attack on Russian territory. This would trigger obligations within the framework of the Union State, forcing the Belarusian army to enter a full-scale war.

Belarusian society and the Belarusian military are strongly against the country's direct participation in the war with Ukraine. Lukashenko has stated that Belarus "does not plan" to attack Ukraine and has "no desire" to send compatriots to fight. However, several battalion-tactical groups of the Belarusian military are stationed near the borders with Ukraine, and places are being prepared for the deployment of 20,000 mobilised from Russia.

While Belarus has no aspirations to join the European Union, it does maintain a bilateral relationship with the bloc. However, the EU has imposed sanctions on Belarus due to its role and complicity in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and its relationship with Russia has caused tensions with the EU and the West.

The country's relationship with the EU

Belarus's relationship with the EU is complex and has been strained in recent years. The country has never expressed aspirations to join the EU, but it does maintain a bilateral relationship with the bloc and is a member of its Eastern Partnership program.

Since gaining independence in 1991, Belarus has retained close ties with Russia, its most dominant neighbour. This has impacted its relationship with the EU, which has frequently condemned the dictatorship in Minsk over its authoritarian policies and human rights violations. The EU has subjected Belarus to a regime of economic sanctions, and tensions escalated following the 2010 presidential elections, which were disputed. After Lukashenko's victory, mass demonstrations hit the streets of Minsk, and he reacted by arresting protesters. The EU imposed new targeted sanctions, declaring that the imprisonment of protesters and opposition representatives violated human rights.

In 2019, Russia introduced a new fiscal law restricting the export of gas and oil to Belarus and hiking taxes on said exports, squeezing Lukashenko. This caused the Belarusian dictator to lash out at Russia verbally, asking why the Kremlin was so eager to lose its only friend in the Western Hemisphere. Due to its dependency on Russia and diplomatic isolation, Belarus doesn't have many alternatives.

The EU-Belarus relationship is also complicated by the ongoing standoff between Brussels and Moscow, and Russia's aggression against Ukraine. Belarus allowed Russia to use its territory to launch missile attacks on Ukrainian cities during the February 2022 invasion, and there are concerns that Belarus will become more directly involved in the conflict. Lukashenko has stated that Belarus does not plan to attack Ukraine and has no desire to send compatriots to fight. However, if Lukashenko's regime recognises the pseudo-referendums held in occupied Ukrainian territories, it would be forced to consider any offensive by Ukraine as an attack on Russian territory due to obligations within the Union State.

Despite the tensions, there have been attempts to improve relations. In 2015, the EU suspended most of the sanctions against Belarus, and there have been backroom meetings between Belarusian diplomats and Western diplomats, with Minsk offering to turn the page of confrontation and remove sanctions from the potash industry. However, the future of EU-Belarus relations remains uncertain.

The country's relationship with the West

Belarus's relationship with the West has been strained since the rise to power of current president Alexander Lukashenko in 1994. The European Union has frequently condemned the dictatorship in Minsk over its authoritarian policies, and has subjected Belarus to a regime of economic sanctions. The nadir in bilateral ties was reached in 2010, when Lukashenko was confirmed president in disputed elections that saw him gain a voting share of almost 80%. After his victory, mass demonstrations hit the streets of Minsk, and Lukashenko reacted by arresting protesters. The EU reacted by imposing new targeted sanctions, declaring that the imprisonment of protesters and opposition representatives violated human rights. From 2015, however, the EU suspended most of the sanctions and Belarus is still a member of the EU's Eastern Partnership.

In 2019, Russia introduced a new fiscal law restricting the export of gas and oil to Belarus and hiking taxes on said exports, in an obvious attempt to squeeze Lukashenko. This caused the Belarusian dictator to verbally lash out at Russia, rhetorically asking why the Kremlin was so eager to lose the only friend it had left in the Western Hemisphere. The new taxes will cost Belarus $3.5 billion over the next five years. Due to its dependency on Russia and its relative diplomatic isolation, Belarus doesn't have much in the way of alternatives.

The Union State—formally a regional integration project between Russia and Belarus—has not been questioned, and with Russia's aggression against Ukraine, as well as its renewed efforts at Eurasian integration, continued Belarusian independence is not a certain prospect. Even if this falls short of full annexation, the risk that Belarus will be sucked further away from Brussels' orbit is very real.

Belarus's relationship with the West has also been impacted by the 2020 political crisis in the country, which increased Lukashenko's dependence on the Kremlin, and he became Russia's crucial ally in the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. As the anti-Western rhetoric from the Lukashenko regime continues to escalate and military activity on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border increases, there are mounting concerns that Belarus will become more directly involved in the Ukrainian crisis.

Belarus's society and military are strongly against the country's direct participation in the war with Ukraine. However, if Lukashenko's regime recognises the pseudo-referendums held in the occupied territories of Ukraine, it must consider any offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine as an attack on Russian territory. In this case, the obligations of bilateral agreements between Moscow and Minsk within the framework of the Union State will enter into force, which will force the Belarusian army to enter a full-scale war.

Lukashenko has intensified attempts to resume dialogue with the West and reach a separate agreement. During backroom meetings with Western diplomats, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Belarus offered the West to "turn the page" of the confrontation and remove sanctions, promising to gradually release political prisoners. However, the head's main message to the West was the need to save Lukashenko from Russia and the proposal to involve official Minsk as a mediator in negotiations between Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

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