Putin's Belarus Visit: What Does It Mean?

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Belarus on May 23, 2024, for a two-day visit, underscoring close ties with a neighbouring ally that has been instrumental in Russia's war effort in Ukraine. Putin's visit to Belarus comes as part of several foreign tours to kick off his fifth term in office. During his visit, Putin held talks with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, with discussions expected to focus on security and joint tactical nuclear weapons exercises. Belarus has supported Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, allowing Russian forces to launch attacks from its territory and providing access to military airbases and army installations. The involvement of Belarus in the conflict has been condemned by Western countries, with sanctions imposed by the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan.

Putin's visit to Belarus in May 2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Belarus on Thursday, May 23, 2024, for a two-day visit. He was greeted by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who walked with him from the plane and then sat down for a "short conversation" at the airport. Lukashenko, who has been in power since 1994, is a longstanding ally of Putin.

Putin's visit to Belarus was part of several foreign tours to kick off his fifth term in office. He travelled to China earlier in May and was expected in Uzbekistan on Sunday.

Putin's talks with Lukashenko focused on security and exercises with tactical nuclear weapons. Minsk is set to take part in the exercises, which are aimed at simulating preparations for the launch of smaller nuclear warheads meant for use on battlefields. The discussions also included the second phase of exercises with tactical weapons.

Russia's Defence Ministry announced that the country's forces had started the first stage of the exercises earlier in the week. Moscow has linked the drills to what it calls "militant statements" by Western officials, including French President Emmanuel Macron, which it said posed a threat to its security. Nuclear analysts, however, say the exercises are designed as a warning signal by Putin to deter the West from getting more involved in the war in Ukraine.

Belarus has provided logistical support for Russia during its conflict with Ukraine. In February 2022, Russian forces entered Ukraine from Belarusian territory during their initial offensive against Kyiv. Russia has also stationed missile launchers in Belarus and launched attacks on Ukrainian targets. In 2023, Russia moved some of its tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus.

Putin's talks with Lukashenko

On May 23, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Belarus for a two-day visit. He was greeted by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, and the two leaders held a "short conversation" at the airport. During this initial meeting, Lukashenko stated that security issues would be at the forefront of their discussions, with economic matters to be addressed the following day.

The visit marked Putin's first trip to Belarus since the start of his fifth term in office and was part of a series of foreign tours, including visits to China and Uzbekistan. The meeting between Putin and Lukashenko aimed to strengthen the close alliance between the two countries. Putin emphasised the importance of their "strategic partnership" under the 25-year union agreement, which fosters close political, economic, and military ties.

In the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Belarus has been a key ally of Russia, allowing Russian forces to use its territory for the invasion. This support has drawn widespread condemnation and sanctions from Western countries. Belarus has also permitted the stationing of Russian nuclear weapons on its soil, raising concerns among NATO members.

Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus with an iron hand for nearly three decades, relies on Russian subsidies and political backing. His reelection in 2020 was marred by allegations of rigging and sparked widespread protests. However, Moscow's support helped him maintain power.

The talks between Putin and Lukashenko covered various topics, including international cooperation, economic issues, and security matters. Lukashenko has previously stated that Belarus must be included in negotiations to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, arguing that they have been unfairly labelled as an "accomplice of the aggressor."

Belarus's support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine

Belarus has supported Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, although it has not taken part directly in the conflict. In the lead-up to the invasion, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to perform military drills on its territory, and for Russian troops to remain in the country after the drills ended. Belarus also allowed Russia to stage part of the invasion from its territory, giving Russia the shortest possible land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv.

In addition, Belarus has allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory and shoot at Ukrainian targets. There have been several reports that Belarusian troops have been in Ukraine fighting alongside Russians, although this has been denied by the Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, who has said that the Belarusian Armed Forces would not participate directly in the conflict. Lukashenko has also stated that he will not send soldiers into Ukraine unless Belarus is attacked first.

Despite Belarus's support for Russia, there is evidence of deep unease among the Belarusian population about their country's involvement in the conflict. A recent poll found that less than 3% of Belarusians favour offering military assistance to Russia, while around two-thirds object to Russian forces bombarding Ukraine from Belarusian territory. There is also evidence of resistance within Belarus, with reports of attacks on Russian military equipment close to the Ukrainian border, and significant efforts to sabotage the Belarusian railway network to prevent Russian troops from being transported to the border.

In recent months, there have been signs that Belarus's support for Russia may be waning. In October 2024, Lukashenko rejected the notion of Belarus formally joining Russia, stating that this would mean war. Lukashenko has also been given an honour by Putin, and Russia has stationed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, demonstrating the close ties between the two countries. However, Belarus has been instrumental in Russia's war effort, and it remains to be seen whether Lukashenko's recent comments and actions will lead to a shift in the country's support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The presence of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus

In 2023, Russia relocated some of its tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, marking the first time such warheads had been moved outside of Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union. This action has been condemned by NATO as "dangerous and irresponsible", and it has sparked fears that Moscow's war in Ukraine could spread.

The Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has defended this decision, arguing that it serves as a strategic deterrent against potential aggression. He has also stated that the weapons are intended to remain in Belarus and that Belarusian independence must be preserved "no matter what". Lukashenko has emphasised that he would only consent to the use of nuclear weapons if Belarus was attacked by foreign soldiers.

The deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus provides Russia with an extended reach towards Ukraine and several NATO allies in Eastern and Central Europe. It allows Russian aircraft and missiles to more easily and quickly target locations in Ukraine and enhances Russia's military capabilities in the region.

The presence of these weapons in Belarus has been a topic of discussion and concern within the First Committee (Disarmament and International Security). The committee has heard arguments regarding the impact on global security and the potential violation of international law and the NPT. Belarus has responded by stating that their cooperation with Russia is in line with international law and that similar actions have been taken by NATO in the past.

The situation is complex and has raised tensions in the region, with global powers closely monitoring the developments and their potential implications.

The Belarusian opposition to the invasion

Public Opinion in Belarus

According to a survey by Chatham House, 79% of Belarusians think that the death of Belarusian soldiers during the war between Russia and Ukraine is unacceptable, and more than 50% thought that Belarus should remain neutral. 74% of Belarusians, regardless of their political stances, had a negative attitude towards any Belarusian involvement in the war.

Condemnation of War by Opposition Leaders

Belarusian exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya condemned Lukashenko for participating in the invasion and expressed her belief that “Ukraine will win this war”. She also urged Belarusian soldiers to disobey any illegal orders to join the war on the Russian side.

Another opposition leader, Pavel Latushka, called for similar sanctions and restrictions to be introduced against Lukashenko as against Putin: “Rockets were also fired at Ukraine from the territory of Belarus, and Lukashenko is the same aggressor as Putin”. He also called for Belarus to be recognised as a territory temporarily occupied by Russia, as the Belarusian regime had lost its independence in decision-making.

Ivonka Survilla, President of the Rada of the Belarusian Democratic Republic, expressed support for the Ukrainian people in their struggle for democracy, independence and a European future in a public letter to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. She also asked Zelenskyy not to identify Belarusians with the illegitimate regime of Lukashenko.

Condemnation of War by Journalists and Celebrities

Belarusian opposition journalists claimed that the actions of the Belarusian government could be treated as aggression according to the United Nations General Assembly Resolution 3314.

Belarusian Nobel Laureate Svetlana Alexievich called Lukashenko's actions over Ukraine a 'crime'. She added that if Belarusian troops are sent to Ukraine, "heroism for them will be not to shoot." She also said that Russia's war against Ukraine is a worse evil than World War II and that Ukrainians and Belarusians fighting against Putin in this war are heroes.

Another Belarusian writer, Alhierd Bacharevič, declared that “we have the same enemy: the Belarusians, the Ukrainians, the Lithuanians, and even the Russians. And this enemy is Putin's empire, Putinism, Putin's fascism!”

More than 80 representatives of the Belarusian film industry publicly condemned Russia's military aggression against Ukraine.

Belarusian tennis star Victoria Azarenka and former Belarusian Olympic swimmer Aliaksandra Herasimenia also stated their opposition to the Belarusian government's involvement in the war.

Anti-War Public Protests and Acts of Sabotage in Belarus

Despite very tight security measures imposed by Lukashenko's regime, protests against the invasion were held in cities across Belarus on 27 February 2022, the day of voting on the changes to the Belarusian constitution. During these protests, 800 people were detained, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus.

Belarusian activists disrupted the work of the Belarusian Railway, which transports Russian military trains, by destroying control points of semaphore signals and railroad switches, and organizing a short circuit of the signaling system near Mahilioŭ. The Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus called these acts "terrorist attacks" and accused opposition figures Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and Pavel Latushko of inspiring them. On 2 March 2022, hacktivists damaged the network infrastructure of the Belarusian Railway.

By 9 March 2022, at least eight people were arrested on suspicion of disrupting the movement of Russian military trains in Belarus. The acts of sabotage prompted the Belarusian authorities to instruct a special military division to patrol the railways in plain clothes.

There have been some 80 acts of sabotage on Belarusian railways as of 12 April 2022, according to data from the Belarusian Interior Ministry. The most common form of damage is setting fire to the signalling equipment, which disrupts the lights on the railway system, reducing the train speed.

Belarusian Volunteers Serving in Ukrainian Armed Forces

Already during the War in Donbas (2014–2022), Belarusians fought alongside Ukraine, forming the Pahonia Detachment and the Tactical group "Belarus".

In spring 2022, it was reported that more than 200 Belarusian citizens had joined the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with another 300 volunteers from Belarus coming through Poland. In July 2023, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported that around 450 Belarusians were fighting for Ukraine.

In the beginning, Belarusians created a separate battalion named after Kastuś Kalinoŭski to defend Kyiv. It later transformed into a regiment consisting of two battalions, a UAV unit and a medical company. The Kastus Kalinouski Regiment was also joined by Pavel Shurmei, a former Belarusian Olympic rower and world record holder.

Another Belarusian volunteer battalion fighting for Ukraine, a part of the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Battalion, was known as the Pahonia Regiment. It ceased to exist in 2023.

Other Belarusian units include the Belarusian Volunteer Corps, which includes the Terror Battalion, and the Second International Legion, which has around 20 Belarusians fighting in it.

Anti-War Actions by the Belarusian Diaspora

Belarusians living outside Belarus and Ukraine have expressed their solidarity with the Ukrainian people by attending anti-war rallies, helping organisations dealing with Ukrainian refugees, collecting and delivering financial and humanitarian aid, and helping Belarusian volunteers fighting for Ukraine.

Frequently asked questions