Lukashenko's Whereabouts: A Mystery In Geopolitics

Alexander Lukashenko is a Belarusian politician who has been the president of Belarus since 1994, making him the longest-serving head of state in Europe. He has been referred to as Europe's last dictator due to his authoritarian rule, which has been characterised by the suppression of opponents and the media, as well as by controversial election results. Lukashenko has maintained close ties with Russia and has been accused of colluding with Russian President Vladimir Putin to undermine democratic processes in neighbouring countries. In 2022, he allowed Russian troops to invade Ukraine from Belarus and amended the Belarusian constitution to strengthen ties with Russia and secure his continued rule. Lukashenko has faced sanctions from Western countries and has been criticised for human rights abuses, including the forced diversion of a commercial airliner to arrest a dissident journalist.

Lukashenko's relationship with Russia

Alexander Lukashenko, the President of Belarus, has had a complex and evolving relationship with Russia. Lukashenko has been in power since 1994, making him the longest-serving head of state in Europe.

However, Lukashenko has also tested Russia's patience and asserted his country's sovereignty in several ways. He has skilfully extracted concessions from Moscow, such as cheap energy supplies and state loans, while only paying lip service to the idea of a "union state." He has also made impulsive moves, such as threatening to block a Russian pipeline to Poland and Germany, which crossed a red line for Moscow. Additionally, Lukashenko refused Russia's request to host a military airbase in Belarus in 2015 and has withheld formal recognition of Russia's annexation of Crimea.

Despite the tensions, Russia has continued to back Lukashenko due to their shared interests and fears of a pro-Western revolution in Belarus. Lukashenko's rule has been labelled as a "dictatorship of stability, security, order, kindness and hospitality" by himself and as "Europe's last dictatorship" by Western media.

Lukashenko's stance on the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

Alexander Lukashenko is a Belarusian politician who has been the president of Belarus since 1994, making him the longest-serving head of state in Europe. Lukashenko's stance on the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine has been complicated and has shifted over time. Initially, he defended Russia's invasion, stating that Moscow had to act because Kyiv was "provoking Russia." Lukashenko also emphasised his close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, calling him his “big brother." He allowed Russian troops to launch their invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory and has publicly supported Putin, who has provided economic support to shore up Lukashenko's regime.

However, Lukashenko has also called for an end to the "war" and spoken out against the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. He has stated that Belarus poses no danger to others and that his country is committed to peace. Lukashenko's comments on the war have been met with international criticism and sanctions against Minsk. Opposition figures in Belarus have dismissed his calls for peace as absurd, arguing that Belarus has actively facilitated Russia's aggression.

Lukashenko's support for Russia's invasion has created tensions within his country, with some insiders suggesting that deploying Belarusian troops to Ukraine could lead to a threat to his authority. There is also a divide between the security forces, who largely support Russia, and the general public, who are opposed to the war. Lukashenko's handling of the invasion has contributed to his reputation as a dictator and "Europe's last dictator."

In summary, Lukashenko's stance on the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine is complex and influenced by his close personal and economic ties with Putin. While he has defended Russia's actions and facilitated their invasion, he has also called for peace and emphasised Belarus's commitment to avoiding conflict. The invasion has put Lukashenko in a difficult position, with international criticism and domestic tensions arising from his support for Russia.

Lukashenko's role in the Ryanair Flight 4978 diversion

Alexander Lukashenko is a Belarusian politician who has been the president of Belarus since 1994, making him the longest-serving head of state in Europe. Lukashenko has been labelled by the media as "Europe's last dictator".

On 23 May 2021, Ryanair Flight 4978, a regularly scheduled international passenger flight from Athens International Airport, Greece, to Vilnius Airport, Lithuania, was diverted by the Belarusian government to Minsk National Airport due to alleged claims of a Hamas bombing attempt. The aircraft was allowed to depart after seven hours, reaching Vilnius eight and a half hours behind schedule.

According to Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary, the pilots were told by Belarusian ATC that there was a bomb on board which would be detonated if the aircraft entered Lithuanian airspace, hence the need to divert to Minsk. O'Leary said that the pilots tried to seek advice from Ryanair but were lied to by Belarusian ATC, who told them company representatives were not answering the phone.

According to his press service, Lukashenko personally ordered that the flight be redirected to Minsk with a Belarusian Air Force MiG-29 fighter escort. However, the ICAO fact-finding task force later determined that the MiG-29 was tasked with communications back-up and to protect Minsk, and did not approach nor escort the flight.

Upon landing in Minsk, the Belarusian opposition activist Roman Protasevich was removed from the aircraft and arrested on the grounds that he was listed on a Belarusian wanted list. His girlfriend, Sofia Sapega, a Russian citizen, was also removed and detained without explanation.

The act was condemned by the European Union (EU), NATO, the United Kingdom, and the United States, among others, and by some civil aviation authorities, while Russian officials backed Belarus. The EU and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency issued directives halting European airlines from flying over Belarusian airspace.

On 26 May 2021, Lukashenko made his first remarks about the incident in a speech to the Belarusian parliament. He said that he acted "legally" and claimed that "ill-wishers from outside the country and from inside the country changed their methods of attack on the state", referring to it as a "hybrid war". He also accused Protasevich of planning a "bloody rebellion", without giving details. Lukashenko added that the bomb threat had come from Switzerland; however, the Swiss government said it had no knowledge of any bomb threat on the flight.

On 24 May 2021, the Lithuanian cabinet banned all flights to and from Lithuania flying through Belarusian airspace. British transport secretary Grant Shapps instructed the Civil Aviation Authority to request that British airlines avoid Belarusian airspace. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy instructed the government to halt air traffic with Belarus.

On 26 May 2021, the European Union and the EU Aviation Safety Agency issued directives formally halting European airlines from flying over Belarusian airspace. The U.S. and the EU announced plans to impose punitive sanctions targeting key members of Lukashenko's government.

On 4 June 2021, the European Union banned Belarusian airlines from its airspace along with other economic sanctions. On 9 June 2021, the United States government announced it would implement new sanctions on Belarus. The United States, European Union, United Kingdom and Canada issued a joint statement on 21 June 2021 announcing further sanctions against members and supporters of the Belarusian government, as well as Belarusian state-owned companies.

On 27 May 2021, the ICAO Council expressed strong concern about the apparent forced diversion and requested the ICAO Secretariat to undertake a fact-finding investigation. In November 2021, ICAO announced that the investigation report had been delayed until January 2022, due to the "volume of data submitted and additional state clarifications still being required".

On 17 January 2022, ICAO published the fact-finding report for discussion at an ICAO Council meeting on 31 January. The report concluded that the bomb threat was "deliberately false", but could not "attribute the commission of this act of unlawful interference to any individual or State".

On 20 January 2022, the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York charged four Belarusian officials with conspiracy to commit aircraft piracy. The officials charged have not been arrested.

The act was denounced by the United States, United Kingdom, European Union, NATO, and some civil aviation authorities as an act of air piracy and state terrorism; a violation of international law, including the Convention on International Civil Aviation; and an infringement of basic human rights by an authoritarian regime.

Lukashenko's response to the COVID-19 pandemic

Alexander Lukashenko, the President of Belarus, has been criticised for his response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Initially, he downplayed the threat, comparing COVID-19 to the ordinary seasonal flu, and blamed those who died from it, claiming it was their own fault because of their poor health. He also made controversial statements, such as suggesting that working on a tractor, drinking vodka, and going to saunas could prevent people from contracting the virus.

However, his rhetoric changed, and he praised the Belarusian healthcare system for its response to the pandemic. He emphasised the importance of unity between the government, society, and healthcare professionals, and acknowledged the mobilisation of the entire country in the fight against COVID-19. Lukashenko also noted that treatment was a priority, and that the focus should be on personnel and equipment rather than building new facilities.

Despite his initial scornful attitude, Lukashenko did emphasise the importance of vaccination and never opposed it. He criticised the imposition of restrictions and fines for not wearing face masks, stating that people should be allowed to make their own decisions regarding their health. He also expressed concern about the underperformance of law enforcement agencies in matters within their job description, such as the illegal sale of meat, while being overly focused on mask mandates.

Lukashenko's suppression of opposition

Alexander Lukashenko has been the president of Belarus since 1994, making him the longest-serving head of state in Europe. He has been labelled by the media as "Europe's last dictator", and his government has been described as authoritarian. International monitors have not regarded Belarusian elections as free and fair, except for his initial win.

There have been widespread reports of torture of political prisoners by Belarusian authorities. Lukashenko himself has threatened opposition protesters, saying that anyone going to opposition protests would have their "necks wrung". He has also dismissed the opposition as being financed by foreign countries and not needed.

The suppression of opposition has not been limited to Belarusian citizens but has also extended to foreign nationals. In May 2021, Lukashenko personally ordered a Ryanair flight from Athens to Vilnius to land in Minsk so that opposition journalist Roman Protasevich could be arrested. This act was condemned by opposition figures and resulted in further sanctions against Belarus.

In addition to street protests, the Belarusian opposition has employed various tactics to show the regime's loss of popular support. These include pressing MPs to withdraw their backing for Lukashenko, resigning en masse from government-controlled trade unions, and staging boycotts of state-run banks and financial institutions.

The opposition has also coordinated a financial boycott using popular social media channels, encouraging people to withdraw money from state banks and avoid paying utility bills and mortgages to exert economic pressure on the regime.

The suppression of opposition under Lukashenko has led to a significant number of dissidents fleeing the country, with many facing threats and intimidation abroad as well.

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