Belarus And Russia: Why No Union?

Belarus has been a close ally of Russia, and the two countries have had a complicated relationship since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Despite their proximity and shared history, Belarus has maintained some strategic independence from Russia, even becoming a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Eurasian Economic Union, which were created by Russia to counter Western military and economic alliances. Belarus has also formed part of the Union State with Russia, which was created in 1999 to enhance legal integration between the two states. However, the full integration of Belarus and Russia, as envisioned by the Union State, has not yet occurred due to Belarus's wariness of giving up its sovereignty.

Belarusians fear they would have to fight in Russia's wars if unified with Russia

Belarusians fear that unification with Russia would mean they would have to fight in Russia's wars. This fear is not unfounded, as Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has relied heavily on Belarus as a staging ground. Belarus has allowed Russian troops to perform military drills on its territory and launch attacks on Ukraine from its borders.

Belarusians are overwhelmingly against participating in the war in Ukraine, with more than 90% rejecting the idea of joining on Russia's side. This sentiment is so strong that it could provoke a serious wave of discontent within the country, even more so than Putin's mobilisation efforts in Russia. Belarusian democratic forces in exile would likely use this discontent to overthrow the Lukashenko regime.

The fear of being drawn into Russia's wars is not new. During the war in Chechnya, most Belarusians were afraid that unification with Russia would mean that they or their children would have to take part in military conflicts. This fear has been realised in the case of Ukraine, with reports emerging that Belarusian troops are fighting alongside Russians. However, these reports have been dismissed by the Belarusian leader, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, who has stated that the Belarusian Armed Forces (BAF) will not participate directly in the conflict.

The prospect of being forced to fight in Russia's wars is a significant factor in Belarusians' opposition to unification with Russia. While there is some support for the idea, it is not unanimous, and the fear of losing sovereignty and being drawn into military conflicts is a powerful deterrent.

Belarusians want to maintain their independence and sovereignty

Belarusians are also afraid that unification with Russia would lead to their involvement in military conflicts in Russia. They are particularly concerned about the possibility of having to participate in the war in Chechnya. This fear is not unfounded, as Belarus allowed Russia to stage part of the invasion of Ukraine from its territory, and there have been reports of Belarusian troops fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine. However, the Belarusian leader, Aleksander Lukashenko, has stated that there would be "no way" he would send soldiers to Ukraine unless attacked first, and that Belarus would remain neutral.

Furthermore, Belarusians value their state sovereignty and independence. They are wary of giving up sovereignty and do not want to be fully integrated into the Russian Federation. They have witnessed the oligarchic raiding of businesses and the extinguishing of the traditionally Western-looking aspect of Russian national identity, and they do not want the same to happen in their country. Instead, they aspire towards European integration and European Union membership.

In addition, Belarusians have a negative attitude towards any Belarusian involvement in the war in Ukraine. They do not want their soldiers to fight, and they do not want Russian troops to invade Ukraine from Belarus or to stay in Belarus. They have expressed their opposition to the war through public protests and acts of sabotage, despite very tight security measures imposed by the Lukashenko regime.

Finally, Belarusians sympathise with Ukraine and see it as a brother nation. They do not want to go to war with Ukraine, and they support Ukraine's calls for peace and an end to the Russian invasion.

Lukashenko has been able to extract benefits from Russia without giving up total control

Since 1999, Belarus has been part of the Union State of Russia and Belarus, but the two nations have never fully integrated. While Russia has pushed for full harmonization, including a common currency, Belarus has been evasive, particularly about the prospect of a permanent Russian military presence in the country.

Alexander Lukashenko, the President of Belarus, has been in power since 1994, making him the longest-serving leader raised in the Soviet Union. Lukashenko has been described as a "master" at extracting benefits from Russia without giving up total control. He has maintained a tight grip on power, suppressing dissent and rigging elections to ensure his continued rule.

Despite his pro-Russian stance, Lukashenko has been able to extract benefits from Russia without fully committing to integration. Belarus has benefited from tariff-free trade, the flow of cheap energy, and visa-free work opportunities in Russia. Additionally, the Russian language has become the main language spoken in Belarus, sidelining the Belarusian language.

Russia has also gained from this relationship. They have access to Belarusian agricultural produce and were able to use Belarus as a staging ground for the invasion of Ukraine. Despite not having Belarusian troops on the ground, Russia was able to launch attacks from Belarusian territory and take advantage of the country's proximity to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv.

Lukashenko's ability to maintain independence while extracting benefits from Russia is a delicate balancing act. He has played Russia and the European Union off each other, making overtures to the EU when faced with proposals for tighter integration with Russia. However, his room for maneuver has diminished since the 2020 protests, which he was only able to suppress with Russian support.

In summary, Lukashenko has skillfully navigated the complex geopolitical landscape, maintaining his independence while benefiting from Russia's support. However, as the war in Ukraine continues, the dynamics between Belarus and Russia may shift, and Lukashenko's ability to resist full integration may be tested.

Belarusians are wary of giving up sovereignty and fully integrating with Russia

The fear of losing sovereignty is not unfounded, as Russia has a history of exerting influence over Belarus and promoting pro-Russian propaganda. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Belarus and Russia have signed several agreements towards economic, military, and political integration, including the formation of the Union State in 1999. However, Minsk has been evasive about full harmonization, particularly regarding a common currency and a permanent Russian military presence.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has played a delicate balancing act between Russia and the European Union, extracting benefits from both sides while maintaining a degree of independence. Lukashenko has provided crucial support to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but he has also been branded as the last dictator in Europe, and Brussels has not given up on the potential for a democratic turn.

The war in Ukraine has further complicated the dynamic between Belarus and Russia. While Belarus has become a key asset for Russia, providing access to its territory and resources, Lukashenko is cautious about his political future and the potential for a Russian takeover. He is aware of the fate of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who was driven into exile.

In conclusion, Belarusians' wariness of giving up sovereignty is rooted in their value for independence and their desire to preserve their national identity. President Lukashenko's maneuvering between Russia and the West has allowed Belarus to maintain a degree of autonomy, but the ongoing conflict in Ukraine may ultimately push Belarus closer to full integration with Russia, despite the concerns of its citizens.

Lukashenko has been able to play Russia and the West off each other

Since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, Lukashenko has demonstrated his ability to manoeuvre between Russia and the West. He has antagonised both sides without provoking serious countermeasures. For example, he allowed Belarus to serve as a staging ground for the Russian invasion but refused to send his own troops into battle. He also allowed his airfields to be used by Russian aviation but declined to deal with partisan activity targeting vital Russian transport routes.

Lukashenko has also played a role in settling the affair with Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, who threatened to march on the Kremlin. Additionally, he has allowed Russian nuclear weapons to be stationed in his country. These actions have made Belarus an increasingly important Kremlin asset.

Lukashenko has a reputation as a political gambler and the ultimate survivor. He has been in power for 30 years (since 1994), longer than any other leader raised in and formed by the Soviet Union. He has maintained his position through the ruthless suppression of dissent and has a longer track record of cracking down on any sign of discontent than his Russian counterpart. His electoral victories have been more like those in North Korea than Russia, and he does not project the paranoia that has become a hallmark of the Putin regime.

Lukashenko's balancing act between Russia and the European Union showcases his skill as a successful gambler. Belarus has formed part of the Union State of Russia and Belarus since 1999, but the marriage has not been consummated. Minsk has been evasive of Moscow's push for full harmonisation, including a common currency, and has been especially wary of giving up sovereignty. The prospect of a permanent Russian military presence in the country has been particularly contentious.

Lukashenko's standard play to ward off proposals for tighter integration with Russia has been to make overtures suggesting closer relations with the EU. Although he has been branded as the last dictator in Europe, Brussels has remained hopeful about a turn for the better. Belarus has featured in EU projects like Wider Europe and the Eastern Partnership, and Brussels has provided some support to Belarusian opposition groups in exile.

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