Belarus Elections: Timing And What To Expect

The next presidential election in Belarus is scheduled to take place on 26 January 2025. The incumbent, Alexander Lukashenko, has already confirmed his intention to run for what would be his seventh consecutive term. Lukashenko has been in power since 1994, and his regime has been described as an authoritarian dictatorship by Western observers. The 2020 election, which was denounced as fraudulent by the opposition and the West, sparked mass protests that were violently suppressed by the government. Lukashenko's main opponent, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, was forced to flee the country and is now leading a pro-democratic opposition movement in exile. She has denounced the upcoming 2025 election as a sham with no real electoral process.

The next election will be held on the 26th of January 2025

The next election in Belarus will be held on the 26th of January 2025, as announced by the country's Central Electoral Commission. This will be the seventh presidential election in the country's history, with the president being elected to serve a five-year term.

The incumbent, Alexander Lukashenko, has been in power since 1994 and is seeking re-election. Lukashenko is a staunch ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin and has ruled the country with an iron fist, suppressing political dissent and consolidating his power over the years. The previous election in 2020 was marred by allegations of widespread electoral fraud, with mass protests erupting across the country. Lukashenko claimed victory with just over 80% of the vote, while opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya claimed to have won with 60-70% of the vote.

Tsikhanouskaya has denounced the upcoming 2025 election as a "farce," stating that it will be conducted in an "atmosphere of terror" without the presence of alternative candidates or observers. She has called on Belarusians and the international community to reject the election.

The 2025 election in Belarus is shaping up to be a pivotal moment in the country's political landscape, with the outcome having significant implications for the nation's future.

Alexander Lukashenko is running for a seventh term

The next Belarusian presidential election is scheduled for 26 January 2025.

The 2020 election, in which Lukashenko claimed victory with just over 80% of the vote, sparked mass protests. Opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya claimed she had won with 60-70% of the vote and called on the international community to recognise her as the winner. Lukashenko responded with a brutal campaign to suppress protesters and opponents, with thousands arrested and beaten.

Lukashenko is a staunch ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Belarus has been one of Moscow's fiercest allies in its invasion of Ukraine. In January 2024, Lukashenko signed a law granting himself immunity and lifelong protection upon his resignation from office.

In the lead-up to the 2025 election, Lukashenko has released 115 political prisoners, with analysts believing he is seeking to gain legitimacy and Western recognition of the election result. However, Tsikhanouskaya has denounced the upcoming election as a farce, stating that there will be no real electoral process and that no alternative candidates or observers will be allowed.

Lukashenko is an authoritarian leader, in power since 1994

Alexander Lukashenko, the current president of Belarus, has been in power since 1994. He is often referred to as "Europe's last dictator" and leads an authoritarian government that suppresses opponents and limits media freedom. Lukashenko has held on to power through multiple controversial elections, with the most recent one in 2020 being denounced as fraudulent by the opposition and the West.

Lukashenko's rise to power began in 1990 when he was elected to the Supreme Soviet of the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, he assumed the position of head of the interim anti-corruption committee of the Supreme Council of Belarus. He then went on to win the country's inaugural presidential election in 1994 after the adoption of a new constitution. Lukashenko's early economic policies focused on preventing the issues faced by other post-Soviet states, such as mass unemployment and the establishment of oligarchic structures. He maintained state ownership of key industries, which spared Belarus from recessions as severe as those in other post-Soviet states.

Lukashenko has used referendums to amend laws and the constitution to expand his authority and remove term limits. He has also relied on the country's secret service, the KGB, to maintain his grip on power. The liberal opposition has been sidelined, and media outlets have been censored. Some opposition lawmakers have disappeared without a trace, and political protests have been violently suppressed. Lukashenko's contested victory in the 2020 presidential election sparked mass protests and allegations of vote-rigging, leading to the largest anti-government demonstrations during his rule.

Lukashenko's rule has been characterised by his personalised and deeply authoritarian leadership style. He has been accused of employing tactics such as referendums, censorship, and the suppression of dissent to maintain his power. International monitors have not regarded Belarusian elections as free and fair, except for his initial win. As a result, Lukashenko has faced sanctions from Western governments, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the European Union, which do not recognise him as the legitimate president of Belarus.

Despite the controversy surrounding his rule, Lukashenko has enjoyed support from certain segments of Belarusian society, particularly the elderly who primarily rely on state media for news. He has also cultivated an image as a man of the people and is affectionately known as "Batka" (father) among some Belarusians. However, his popularity has waned in recent years, with opposition figures gaining support and calling for free and fair elections.

Lukashenko has also cultivated a close relationship with Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin. He played a crucial role in creating the Union State of Russia and Belarus, allowing for the free movement of people and goods between the two countries. However, his relationship with Putin has reportedly deteriorated in recent years, with Lukashenko expressing concerns about Russian attempts to exert influence over Belarus.

The 2020 election was disputed, leading to mass protests

The 2020 election in Belarus was disputed, leading to mass protests. The election, which took place on 9 August, resulted in Alexander Lukashenko being declared the winner and securing him a sixth term in office. However, Lukashenko's main opponent, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, rejected the results, claiming they were falsified and that she had received 60-70% of the votes. This sparked mass protests across the country, with demonstrators taking to the streets to express their dissatisfaction and call for a fair count of the votes. The protests, which were the largest anti-government demonstrations in the history of Belarus, were met with violent persecution by the authorities.

The disputed election and subsequent protests highlighted the authoritarian rule of Lukashenko and the frequent repression of the opposition. Lukashenko had faced growing public opposition, particularly due to his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, which he denied as a serious threat. The election also brought attention to the lack of free and fair elections in Belarus, with international monitors questioning the legitimacy of the results. The European Union, for example, rejected the outcome of the 2020 election and called for new elections to be held.

The mass protests in Belarus were met with a brutal crackdown by the government, with security forces using excessive force, including rubber bullets, stun grenades, tear gas, and blank ammunition. Thousands of protesters were detained and subjected to inhumane and degrading conditions, with hundreds experiencing torture and other forms of ill-treatment. The violent response by the authorities resulted in the deaths of several protesters and left many others with serious injuries.

The crackdown extended beyond the protesters to include journalists, political opposition figures, and human rights defenders. Dozens of journalists were detained, beaten, fined, or deported, and stripped of their accreditation. The government also blocked websites and restricted internet access to control the flow of information. The widespread crackdown aimed to stifle dissent and prevent the spread of information about the protests and the government's actions.

The disputed election and the subsequent mass protests had significant repercussions in Belarus and internationally. The protests nearly led to Lukashenko's fall from power, but a brutal campaign, backed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, suppressed the demonstrators and opposition. The European Union, the United States, and the United Kingdom imposed sanctions on Belarusian officials involved in the crackdown. Additionally, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) was not invited to monitor the 2020 election, marking the first time since 2001 that the OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights did not observe elections in Belarus.

Opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya denounced the upcoming election as a farce

Belarus will hold its next presidential election on the 26th of January 2025, as announced by the country's Central Electoral Commission. The election is almost certain to extend the rule of authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko, who has suppressed almost all political dissent. Lukashenko, who first came to power in 1994, is a staunch ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin and has been referred to as "Europe's last dictator". His last victory in the 2020 election was denounced by the opposition and the West as fraudulent, sparking mass protests that were violently suppressed.

Opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya denounced the upcoming election as a "farce", urging Belarusians and the international community to reject it. She stated that the election is a "sham performance without a real electoral process" and that it is taking place in an "atmosphere of terror". Tsikhanouskaya, who was forced to flee the country after running against Lukashenko in 2020, now leads a 'government in exile' in neighbouring Lithuania, recognised by several European countries and the European Parliament.

Tsikhanouskaya's husband, a leading opposition candidate, was arrested and jailed during the 2020 campaign and is currently serving an 18-year sentence. Tsikhanouskaya herself is facing charges of high treason, conspiracy to seize power, and undermining national security, which could result in a 20-year prison sentence if she is convicted. Despite the risks, she remains steadfast in her opposition to Lukashenko and has called for unity and global support for the democratic opposition in Belarus.

The Belarusian authorities have started a wave of arrests, with over a hundred people detained in a week, adding to the already overcrowded prisons. Lukashenko's government has repeatedly refused access to independent election observers, and the country's oldest and most prominent human rights organization, Viasna, reports that there are still around 1,300 political prisoners in Belarus, including leaders of opposition parties.

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