Belarus: A Peaceful Country Or Not?

Belarus, officially the Republic of Belarus, is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe. It is the largest landlocked country in Europe, with an area of 208,000 square kilometres and a population of 9.4 million people. The country has a cool continental climate and is administratively divided into six regions. Minsk is the capital and largest city.

Belarus has a history of political repression and human rights abuses. Since gaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Belarus has retained close ties with Russia, its most dominant neighbour. In 1999, the two countries signed the Union State Foundation Treaty, which aimed to create a politically integrated confederation. However, the precise nature of this partnership remains unclear.

The current president, Alexander Lukashenko, has been in power since 1994 and leads a highly centralized and authoritarian government. Lukashenko has been criticised for restricting freedom of speech, assembly, and the press, and for human rights violations. Belarus remains the only country in Europe and Central Asia to carry out the death penalty.

In recent years, Belarus has faced international sanctions due to its role in the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the crackdown on dissent following the 2020 presidential election, in which Lukashenko sought a sixth term. The country has also been accused of luring refugees and migrants with false promises of easy passage to the EU and then forcing them across EU borders, where they face pushbacks and abuse.

With a history of political repression, human rights abuses, and controversial foreign policy decisions, Belarus faces ongoing challenges in its pursuit of peace and stability.

Belarus's human rights record

Belarus has been criticised for its human rights record by organisations such as Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and the United Nations. The country's president, Alexander Lukashenko, has described himself as having an "authoritarian ruling style", and Western countries have described Belarus under Lukashenko as "Europe's last dictatorship".

Freedom of Expression, Association, and Peaceful Assembly

Belarus has been criticised for severely restricting the rights to freedom of expression, association, and peaceful assembly. The government has targeted independent media outlets, journalists, and human rights organisations. During the 2020 Belarusian presidential election and protests, several people died due to the use of unlawful and abusive force by law enforcement officials. The Belarusian authorities have also been accused of harassing those who challenged their version of events.

Political Prisoners and Dissidents

Belarus has a history of imprisoning political dissidents and opposition figures. In December 2010, Belarusian security forces attacked demonstrators, injuring and arresting hundreds of people. The country has also been criticised for its treatment of political prisoners, including members of the Belarusian Popular Front, a pro-democracy party.

Freedom of Religion and Belief

While Belarus has two official languages—Russian and Belarusian—religious minorities in the country have faced discrimination. Jewish communities, in particular, have faced restrictions on worship and censorship of religious literature. Additionally, the Belarusian Orthodox Church has been granted privileged status by the government.

Torture and Other Ill-Treatment

Torture and other forms of ill-treatment are endemic in Belarus, with perpetrators often enjoying impunity. Political prisoners and dissidents have faced harsh treatment, inhumane conditions, and denial of adequate healthcare. For example, in July 2023, imprisoned artist Ales Pushkin died reportedly from an untreated perforated ulcer.

Refugees' and Migrants' Rights

Belarusian authorities have been accused of luring refugees and migrants to the country with false promises of easy passage into the European Union, only to violently force them across EU borders, where they face pushbacks and abuse.

Death Penalty

Belarus is the only country in Europe and Central Asia that still carries out the death penalty. In March 2023, President Lukashenko signed a law allowing the use of capital punishment against officials and soldiers convicted of high treason.

The country's democratic status

Belarus has been described as "Europe's last dictatorship", with President Alexander Lukashenko deemed "Europe's last dictator" by some media outlets, politicians, and authors.

Belarus is a semi-presidential republic with separation of powers, governed by a president and the National Assembly. However, the country has been led by a highly centralized and authoritarian government, with power ultimately concentrated in the hands of the president.

Lukashenko has been the president of Belarus since 1994, when he was elected in the country's first and only free election after independence. In 1996, Lukashenko called for a controversial vote to extend the presidential term from five to seven years, and as a result, the election that was supposed to take place in 1999 was pushed back to 2001. Under the 1994 constitution, the president could serve for only two terms, but a change in the constitution in 2004 eliminated term limits.

The constitution was revised by a national referendum in 1996, which greatly expanded the powers of the president and restricted the powers of the bicameral National Assembly. The president is the head of state, while the head of government is the prime minister, who is proposed by the president and needs the approval of the Parliament of Belarus.

The government includes a Council of Ministers, headed by the prime minister and five deputy prime ministers. The members of this council need not be members of the legislature and are appointed by the president. The judiciary comprises the Supreme Court and specialized courts such as the Constitutional Court, which deals with specific issues related to constitutional and business law. The judges of national courts are appointed by the president and confirmed by the Council of the Republic.

Lukashenko was officially re-elected as president in 2001, 2006, 2010, 2015, and 2020, although none of these elections were considered free, fair, or democratic. The 2020 election led to mass protests, with neighbouring countries Poland and Lithuania refusing to recognize Lukashenko as the legitimate president. The European Union, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States also did not recognize the election results and imposed sanctions on Belarus.

The country has continued several Soviet-era policies, such as state ownership of large sections of the economy, and is the only European country that continues to use capital punishment. Belarus has also been criticized by rights bodies for suppressing free speech, muzzling the press, and denying the opposition access to state media.

According to Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, Belarus has violated human rights, including freedom of expression, association, and peaceful assembly. Religious minorities face discrimination, the justice system is abused to suppress dissent, and torture and other ill-treatment are endemic.

The country ranks low in international measurements of freedom of the press and civil liberties and has been labeled as "not free" by Freedom House, "repressed" in the Index of Economic Freedom, and ranked 153rd out of 180 countries in the Press Freedom Index by Reporters Without Borders.

Its relationship with Russia

Belarus and Russia have a long and complex history, sharing a land border and constituting a supranational Union State. Russia is Belarus's largest and most important economic and political partner, and both countries are members of several international organisations, including the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Union, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and the United Nations.

The Early Years

In the early 1990s, Russia attempted to maintain control over the post-Soviet space by creating the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). However, Belarus, like other CIS republics, began to drift away from Russia, which was then focused on stabilising its economy and ties with the West. Russia was also concerned that its involvement in the near abroad state of Belarus would risk its relations with the West.

Mid-to-Late 1990s

As NATO began to expand eastward, Russia found itself in a difficult position. It faced the breakup of the large geopolitical bloc it had once controlled and felt that the West was trying to isolate it. This led to the increasing importance of good relations with Belarus. In the mid-1990s, and especially with Alexander Lukashenko's rise to power in 1994, Belarus seemed like an ideal candidate for integration with Russia.

In February 1995, Russian President Boris Yeltsin signed the Treaty of Friendship, Good-Neighbourliness and Cooperation with Belarus, declaring that the two nations shared a common historical experience, which created the basis for the treaty and further documents on deeper integration. The integration process was launched in April 1996, and exactly a year later, the Union of Belarus and Russia was founded. This culminated in the establishment of the Union State between the two countries in December 1999.

Early 2000s

When Vladimir Putin took office, he expressed dissatisfaction with the status of relations with Belarus and criticised the 1999 treaty. Putin proposed continuing unification, either through a federation model or building a union similar to the European Union. However, Belarus refused, and the status quo was maintained. Despite this, the strategic value of Belarus seemed to continue to rise for Russia due to international developments, including the United States' military activity in the post-Soviet space and the eastern European states' shift towards the West.

2010s and the Russo-Ukrainian War

In 2014, following years of embracing Russian influence, Lukashenko pressed for a revival of Belarusian identity after the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War. For the first time, he delivered a speech in Belarusian, saying, "We are not Russian—we are Belarusians." Trade disputes, a border dispute, and a much more relaxed official attitude towards dissident voices all contributed to a weakening of the once warm relationship with Russia.

2020s: Strained Relationship and Reconciliation

In January 2020, signs of new tensions emerged when Lukashenko publicly accused Putin of trying to incorporate Belarus into Russia, leading to Russia cutting economic subsidies. In July 2020, the relationship was described as "strained" after 33 Russian military contractors were arrested in Minsk. Lukashenko accused Russia of trying to cover up an attempt to send 200 fighters from the private Russian military firm Wagner Group to destabilise Belarus ahead of its presidential election.

Following the presidential election and the eruption of new protests, Lukashenko negotiated the refinancing of Belarus's state debt worth $1 billion with Russia. In February 2022, Russian forces were permitted to stage part of the invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory, and Lukashenko stated that Belarusian troops could take part if needed. Belarus has also stated that Russia can bring its nuclear weapons onto Belarusian soil.

Economic Relations

Before 2004, Gazprom sold gas to Belarus at Russian domestic prices due to the political integration process. As this process faltered in the late 1990s and early 2000s, Gazprom wanted to ensure reliable transit of Russian gas through Belarusian territory by taking control of the Belarusian transit network. However, disagreements over price led to the 2004 Russia-Belarus gas dispute, in which Gazprom ceased supplies to Belarus. A new gas contract was signed in June 2004, and relations improved.

In 2009, a serious diplomatic row erupted when Lukashenko accused Russia of offering a $500 million loan on the condition that Belarus recognise Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Lukashenko declared that Belarusian citizens must abide by Georgian laws when travelling to these regions. He also questioned the necessity of diplomatic relations with Russia, stating that Russia was "blockading" Belarus.

In July 2009, Russia banned all dairy imports from Belarus, claiming they did not comply with new regulations. Belarus accused Russia of employing the ban for political purposes, while Russia denied any political motivation. Russia soon lifted the ban, and Belarus resumed dairy deliveries. However, a new dispute arose when Russia claimed that Belarus owed $231 million for gas supplies, leading Belarus to threaten to introduce border and customs control on its border with Russia.

Military Cooperation

Russia and Belarus have close military relations and are engaged in various joint military-scientific activities. Russia also operates several military bases and radars in Belarus. As a result of the 2014 Ukraine crisis, Russia sought to replace Ukrainian defence ties with Belarus, and in September 2017, the two countries resumed normal relations and conducted military drills.

Recent Developments

In October 2024, Belarusian President Lukashenko rejected the notion of Belarus formally joining Russia, stating that it would mean war. He emphasised Belarus's role in establishing the Union State and its ability to build close relations without offending anyone. Lukashenko also highlighted the importance of planning ahead, referring to Russia's war in Ukraine and stating that capturing territory is not enough—a wise politician should always think about what will happen next.

In summary, Belarus and Russia have a complex and evolving relationship, with Belarus striving to balance its independence while maintaining close ties with its dominant neighbour. While there have been periods of tension and reconciliation, the two countries remain closely linked through economic, political, and military cooperation.

The impact of the Chernobyl disaster

Belarus, officially the Republic of Belarus, is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe. It is bordered by Russia to the east and northeast, Ukraine to the south, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest. Belarus has a population of 9.1 million and is administratively divided into six regions. Minsk is the capital and largest city.

The Chernobyl disaster took place in the former Soviet republic of Ukraine, but about 70% of the nuclear fallout from the explosion landed in neighbouring Belarus, contaminating roughly two-thirds of the country's territory. The Belarusian government designated the most toxic area, along the Ukrainian border and closest to the plant, the Polesie State Radioecological Reserve. This restricted zone, once home to scores of villages, has been used exclusively for scientific monitoring and research.

The economic impact of the disaster has been significant as well. According to Chernobyl International, a humanitarian organization, the disaster costs Belarus 20% of its annual budget. The organization also estimates that more than half a million people have been relocated since 1986. The international community has provided technical and financial support to help Belarus deal with the consequences of the disaster. The United Nations General Assembly adopts Chernobyl-related resolutions every three years to strengthen intergovernmental cooperation and implement international programmes and projects related to Chernobyl.

The state of its economy

Belarus's economy has been heavily impacted by the country's political situation and its close ties with Russia. The country has been led by an authoritarian government under President Alexander Lukashenko, who has maintained control over key industries and continued several Soviet-era policies, such as state ownership of large sections of the economy.

In recent years, Belarus's economy has faced significant challenges due to its support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As a result, many international firms and investors have left the Belarusian market, leading to a sharp decline in trade with the EU and Ukraine. This has resulted in a recession and a drop in GDP. The country has also been subjected to numerous rounds of sanctions by the US, EU, and other countries, further impacting its economic prospects.

Belarus's economic policies have been characterized by a mix of state control and limited privatization. While the government has claimed to welcome foreign investment, the imposition of wide-ranging sanctions and legislation to seize private property and violate intellectual property rights have made the country a less attractive destination for foreign direct investment (FDI). The country has also faced criticism for its lack of judicial independence and persistent corruption, which serve as additional deterrents to foreign investment.

The Belarusian economy is heavily dependent on a few key sectors, including manufacturing, agriculture, and energy. Manufacturing accounts for a significant portion of GDP, with industries such as petrochemicals, mechanical engineering, and food processing playing a major role. The country has a well-educated and skilled workforce, which has contributed to the development of a strong IT sector. However, due to the political situation and human rights concerns, many IT professionals have left the country.

The country's close ties with Russia have also influenced its economic policies and decisions. Belarus and Russia have signed several agreements, including the Union State Foundation Treaty, which aims to create a politically integrated confederation. However, the precise nature of this partnership remains unclear. Additionally, much of the new investment in Belarus in recent years has come from Russia, and the two countries have worked to align their economies more closely.

Overall, the state of Belarus's economy is heavily influenced by political factors, both domestically and internationally. The country faces challenges in attracting foreign investment due to its political situation, sanctions, and lack of economic reforms. The close relationship with Russia has also played a significant role in shaping the country's economic trajectory.

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