Belarus Joins War: What Could Be The Outcome?

Belarus's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war has been a concern since the beginning of the conflict. Belarus, under the leadership of Alexander Lukashenko, has been a close ally of Russia and supported its eastern neighbour in the invasion of Ukraine. In the initial stages of the conflict, Belarus allowed Russian troops to perform military drills on its territory and launch attacks on Ukraine from its border, providing Russia with the shortest possible land route to Kyiv. Despite assurances from Lukashenko that Belarusian troops would not participate directly in the conflict, there have been reports of their presence in Ukraine.

The involvement of Belarus has been met with condemnation from Western countries, resulting in sanctions. Public opinion in Belarus largely opposes the country's involvement in the war and the use of its territory by Russia. Lukashenko has walked a delicate line between his support for Russia and the lack of public enthusiasm in Belarus for the invasion. While he has avoided sending Belarusian troops to fight alongside Russian forces so far, he has provided territorial access and military support to Russia.

The possibility of Belarus joining the war remains a concern, with Ukrainian forces fortifying and mining territory close to the border. Lukashenko has stated that Belarus will join Russia in the war if attacked, indicating his willingness to provide territory and wage war alongside Russia if provoked. The balance of his decision may shift towards intervention if the situation on the battlefield changes significantly.

Belarus's military capabilities

In 2017, the IISS estimated that personnel in the armed forces numbered 49,000, with nearly 350,000 reserves. Most soldiers are conscripts serving for a period of 18 months, although there is an alternative service option. Belarus's military still holds many Soviet military laws and considers high numbers of reserve personnel a high priority.

Belarus's ground forces consist of mechanized and motorised brigades, as well as missile, antitank, and antiaircraft brigades. In 2007, the Land Forces consisted of 29,600 soldiers, 1800 main battle tanks, and 2600 AFV/APCs. The Air Force and Air Defence Force consist of fighter/interceptor bases, FGA/reconnaissance squadrons, a transport air base, training aircraft, attack and support helicopters, and SAM units. The Air Force has two commands: the Western Operational-Tactical Command and the North-Western Operational-Tactical Command.

Belarus has a close partnership with Russia, and much of its air defence system is integrated into the Russian network. In 2021, Moscow and Minsk signed contracts for the supply of fighters, helicopters, air defence systems, and other weapons to Belarus. Belarus also received S-400 air defence systems and 9K720 Iskander tactical ballistic missiles in 2022.

While Belarus has a relatively large number of military personnel and equipment, some Western experts consider its equipment outdated. Belarus's armed forces receive around 100 new and upgraded systems a year, but they are almost exclusively armed with Soviet-era equipment inherited from the Soviet Union.

The impact on Russia's invasion strategy

Firstly, the proximity of Belarus to Ukraine, particularly its capital Kyiv, gives Russia a strategic advantage. Belarus' northern border with Ukraine is less than 160 kilometres from Kyiv, and its territory includes temporary Russian air bases. This proximity would enable Russian and Belarusian forces to launch a joint offensive on Kyiv, which they previously did in February 2022. Such an attack could be aimed at cutting off Western supplies of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. Additionally, the presence of Belarusian troops in the conflict would force Ukraine to redeploy some of its forces from the south and east to defend Kyiv and other major cities.

Secondly, Belarus could provide additional military support to Russia. While the Belarusian army is not particularly well-staffed or combat-ready, it could still deliver heavy blows to Ukraine's civilian population and critical infrastructure. Belarus has an array of armed forces and intelligence operations, including special forces, riot police, and assault brigades, that have shown loyalty to the regime. Additionally, Belarus has provided Russia with military equipment, such as ammunition, tanks, armoured vehicles, and missile and air defence systems.

Thirdly, the involvement of Belarus in the war could impact Russia's public image and international relations. Belarus' participation in the military conflict is unpopular among its general population, with protests being held against the war. Western countries have already imposed sanctions on Belarus for its support for Russia, and further involvement in the war could lead to additional sanctions and international isolation.

Finally, the decision to join the war would have implications for Russia's relationship with Belarus. While Belarus is a close ally and dependent on Russia for political and economic support, its participation in the war is not guaranteed. There is a risk of backlash and public discontent in Belarus if its troops are sent to fight, and there are doubts over the reliability of the Belarusian army due to low morale and combat experience. Additionally, a popular uprising in Belarus against the regime and "Russian occupation" could be dangerous for Putin, eliminating one of his closest allies and inspiring political turmoil within Russia.

Public opinion in Belarus

According to a survey by Chatham House, 79% of Belarusians think that the death of Belarusian soldiers during the war is unacceptable, and more than 50% thought that Belarus should remain neutral. Participants of the survey were asked, "What should Belarus have done after the outbreak of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine?". 33% expressed their support for Russian actions (including 3% in favour of Belarus taking part in the conflict on Russia's side and 30% against), 25% supported complete neutrality and the expulsion of all foreign troops from Belarusian territory, 21% were unsure, and 20% supported Ukraine (including 1% in favour of Belarus taking part in the conflict on Ukraine's side and 19% against). Thus, at least 74% of Belarusians, regardless of their political stances, had a negative attitude towards any Belarusian involvement in the war.

There is a widespread belief among Ukrainians that the Belarusian army will not go against Ukraine, and if such an order is given, it will turn against Lukashenko himself. This opinion is based on the genuinely friendly relationship between the two nations, including the support Belarusians showed for Ukrainians during the revolutions of 2004 and 2014, and the general unwillingness to live under the leadership of the Kremlin. Many Belarusians chose to flee to Ukraine, seeking protection from Lukashenko's regime, and actively helped Ukrainian refugees during the war.

However, the people and the army in Belarus are not united, as demonstrated by the rallies in 2020. There is little Belarusians themselves can do if the army is ordered to attack. Belarus was known for its widespread and well-trained underground resistance during World War II, which played a significant role in the German army's failure in the war against the USSR. Belarusians may not be the most militant nation, but they are talented saboteurs. Since the beginning of the war, sabotage groups of Belarusians have mined railway tracks, preventing trains carrying ammunition from crossing to support the advancing Russian army.

The potential for a two-front war

The Belarusian army's strength is estimated at around 65,000 personnel, including 45,000 servicemen and 20,000 civilian personnel. Additionally, there are about 12,000 soldiers in the Internal Troops, who are loyal to Lukashenko and have a history of suppressing protests. While the Belarusian army has not engaged in any military action since the country's independence, its presence in the conflict would force Ukraine to redeploy some of its troops from the south and east. Belarus's firepower could inflict heavy damage on Ukraine's civilian population and critical infrastructure.

However, there are doubts about the willingness of the Belarusian army to engage in combat against Ukraine. There is a widespread belief among Ukrainians that the Belarusian army will not go against them, and if ordered to do so, they may turn against Lukashenko himself. This belief is rooted in the friendly relationship between the two nations and the support Belarusians have shown for Ukrainians during past revolutions. Many Belarusians have also actively helped Ukrainian refugees during the war.

Nevertheless, the people and the army in Belarus are not united, as demonstrated by the rallies in 2020. If ordered to attack, it is unlikely that the Belarusians themselves could do much to stop it. Additionally, Belarus was known for its well-trained underground resistance during World War II, which played a significant role in the German army's failure against the USSR. Belarusian saboteurs have already been active during the war, mining railroad tracks and disrupting Russian supply lines.

In conclusion, while the potential for a two-front war exists, it is uncertain whether the Belarusian army would fully commit to an invasion of Ukraine. The consequences of such a decision would be significant for both Ukraine and Belarus, with the potential for widespread destruction and loss of life on both sides.

The role of nuclear weapons

In recent years, Russia has moved tactical nuclear weapons into Belarus, bringing them several hundred miles closer to NATO territory. This deployment is intended to pressure NATO's eastern flank and deter Western support for Ukraine. While some experts argue that this move does not significantly change the nature of Russia's military threats to NATO, others emphasize the increased risk and the need for a stronger response.

Belarus's involvement with nuclear weapons is not merely speculative. In October 2024, Belarus launched nuclear drills, including exercises with missiles and warplanes capable of delivering tactical nuclear weapons. These drills were conducted jointly with Russia and coincided with Russian President Vladimir Putin's inauguration for his fifth term, underscoring the alignment between the two countries.

The presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus has been a source of concern for Western powers, who have condemned the deployment as a violation of Belarus's obligations under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The Lithuanian representative to the First Committee warned that Belarus is breaching its commitments as a non-nuclear-weapon state by allowing the stationing of nuclear weapons on its territory.

Belarus's leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has defended the presence of Russian nuclear weapons in his country, claiming they serve as a deterrent against potential aggression. He asserted that the weapons are intended for defensive purposes and that Belarus would only use them if its territory were attacked. Lukashenko's statements reflect a delicate balance between projecting strength and avoiding direct confrontation with NATO.

The potential use of nuclear weapons in the conflict has been a persistent concern for Western leaders. Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, has not ruled out the possibility, even as the conflict reached a stalemate. Putin's statements and Russia's nuclear capabilities have influenced Western debates about continuing to support Ukraine.

The deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus has significant implications for the region's security. It not only increases the risk of nuclear conflict but also extends Russia's capability to target several NATO allies in Eastern and Central Europe. This development has prompted discussions among NATO nations about the potential need to station nuclear weapons on their soil.

In summary, the role of nuclear weapons in the event of Belarus joining the war is a critical factor that heightens tensions and complicates the geopolitical situation. The presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus, facilitated by Russia, poses a direct threat to Ukraine and NATO members in the region. The potential use of these weapons remains a concern, influencing strategic decisions and debates among Western leaders.

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