Belarus' Involvement In Ukraine: Understanding Their Role

Belarus has been a close ally of Russia in its war with Ukraine, allowing Russian troops to use its territory as a launching pad for the invasion. In the early days of the conflict, Belarus also allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory and shoot at Ukrainian targets.

Since the invasion, Ukraine-Belarus relations have deteriorated significantly, with Ukraine divesting from important Belarusian imports, particularly petroleum products. Bilateral trade has plummeted as a result, from $6.9 billion in 2021 to $1.6 billion in 2022, and down to just $13.8 million in the first seven months of 2023.

While Belarus initially served as a base for Russian military operations, it has since become a crucial supplier of military hardware, munitions, and components to Russia. There have also been repeated reports of Belarusian soldiers participating in the invasion, although the country's leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has denied this, and Belarusian troops have not been directly involved in the conflict.

In recent months, Belarus has deployed additional air defence forces to its border with Ukraine and conducted military drills, citing threats to its critical infrastructure. Ukraine has dismissed these concerns, saying it was forced to move troops and equipment towards their shared border because of Minsk's continued support for Russia's invasion.

Belarus's role in the 2022 invasion

Belarus, a close ally of Russia, has supported its eastern neighbour in the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In the lead-up to the invasion, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to perform military drills on its territory. However, the Russian troops did not leave Belarus as scheduled, and the country allowed Russia to stage part of the invasion from its territory, providing the shortest land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. Belarus also permitted Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its soil and fire upon Ukrainian targets.

There have been several reports of Belarusian troops in Ukraine fighting alongside Russians. However, as of early 2023, the Belarusian Armed Forces (BAF) have not been confirmed to have directly participated in combat against Ukraine, and they have remained on Belarusian territory. The Belarusian leader, Aleksander Lukashenko, has stated that he will not send soldiers into Ukraine unless his country is attacked first.

The involvement of Belarus in the invasion has been condemned internationally, with the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan imposing sanctions. Belarus's participation in the conflict is unpopular among its citizens, with protests held on February 27, 2022, the day of a constitutional referendum that revoked the country's non-nuclear and neutral status.

Since the initial stages of the invasion, Belarus's role has evolved. While it initially served as a base for Russian military operations, it has transitioned into a crucial supplier of military hardware, munitions, and components to Russia. Belarus has also become a participant in Russia's psychological and informational operations preceding new phases of the war, creating the impression of potential offensives originating from its territory.

In summary, Belarus has played a significant role in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine by providing territory, military support, and participation in psychological operations. However, there is ambiguity regarding the extent of Belarusian troop involvement in Ukraine, and the country has faced domestic and international condemnation for its role in the conflict.

The country's relationship with Ukraine post-invasion

Belarus's relationship with Ukraine has deteriorated significantly since the Russian invasion. Belarus supported Russia in the invasion and allowed its territory to be used as a launching pad for the attack on Ukraine. This has led to a severe deterioration in relations between the two countries, with Ukraine divesting from important Belarusian imports and reducing diplomatic relations.

Economic Cooperation Breakdown

Before 2022, Ukraine aimed to leverage trade with Belarus to prevent Russian encroachment on Belarusian sovereignty. When the EU imposed sanctions on Belarus in mid-2021, Ukraine became the main market for Belarusian exports and provided a way to circumvent sanctions. However, once Belarus became a bridgehead for Russia's invasion, Ukraine changed course and divested from key Belarusian imports, particularly petroleum products. As a result, bilateral trade between the two countries plummeted from $6.9 billion in 2021 to $1.6 billion in 2022.

Political Relations at a Standstill

Ukraine-Belarus political relations have also reached their lowest point in history, with minimal communication and significant diplomatic withdrawals. Both countries have recalled their ambassadors and reduced embassy staff. Ukraine has reduced its embassy staff in Minsk to just five people, while Belarus has evacuated its diplomats from Ukraine. Despite this, Ukraine still maintains diplomatic relations with Belarus for several reasons. Firstly, the channel is used to exchange notes and transmit legal and consular documents. Secondly, Belarus is one of the few routes through which Ukrainians from occupied territories can reach government-controlled areas. Finally, the presence of Ukrainian diplomats in Belarus signals that Ukraine will not resort to military force against its northern neighbour.

The Evolution of Belarus's Role in the War

Initially, Belarus served as a base for Russian military operations. However, its role has evolved, and it is now a crucial supplier of military hardware, munitions, and components to Russia. Belarus has also become a participant in Russia's psychological and informational operations that precede new phases of the war. For example, leaked documents revealed Russian efforts in early 2023 to create the impression among Ukrainian intelligence of a potential second offensive from Belarus. Similar bellicose actions are now taking place in association with the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine, with Belarus conducting military drills and accusing Kyiv of deploying saboteurs on its territory.

Low Chances of Serious Escalation

Despite the deterioration in relations, the prospects for a renewal of missile or drone attacks or a repeat offensive from Belarusian territory are fairly low. Turning Belarus into a war zone would be disadvantageous for both Lukashenko, who is keen to preserve his regime, and Russia, as its ability to obtain necessary components and products from Belarus would be undermined by Ukrainian attacks on defence facilities and refineries. Additionally, Ukraine has Belarusian volunteer units fighting on its side, such as the Kalinousky Regiment, which the Minsk regime views as a potential threat and a source of destabilization.

The Belarusian opposition

Public Opinion in Belarus

According to a survey by Chatham House, 79% of Belarusians find the death of Belarusian soldiers in the war between Russia and Ukraine unacceptable, and more than 50% believe Belarus should remain neutral. The survey also found that at least 74% of Belarusians, regardless of their political stance, had a negative attitude towards any Belarusian involvement in the war.

Condemnation of War by Opposition Leaders

Tsikhanouskaya has been particularly critical of Belarusian leader Aleksander Lukashenko, accusing him of participating in the invasion and expressing her belief that Ukraine will win the war. She has also suggested that Lukashenko is no longer in control of the Belarusian military and has urged soldiers to disobey any orders to join the war on Russia's side.

Another opposition leader, Pavel Latushka, has called for similar sanctions against Lukashenko as those imposed on Putin, stating that rockets were fired at Ukraine from Belarusian territory and that Lukashenko is an aggressor. Latushka has also called for Belarus to be recognised as a territory temporarily occupied by Russia, arguing that the Belarusian regime has lost its independence in decision-making and control over the country.

Ivonka Survilla, President of the Rada of the Belarusian Democratic Republic, has also expressed support for the Ukrainian people in their struggle for democracy, independence, and a European future. She has asked Ukrainian officials and media to refrain from associating all Belarusians with the illegitimate Lukashenko regime and to cease any harassment or insults directed at Belarusians.

Condemnation of War by Journalists and Celebrities

Belarusian Nobel Laureate Svetlana Alexievich has called Lukashenko's actions a 'crime' and stated that if Belarusian troops are sent to Ukraine, "heroism for them will be not to shoot." She has also said that Russia's war against Ukraine is a worse evil than World War II and that those fighting against Putin are heroes.

Other notable figures who have spoken out against the war include Belarusian writer Alhierd Bacharevič, tennis star Victoria Azarenka, and former Olympic swimmer Aliaksandra Herasimenia.

Anti-War Public Protests and Acts of Sabotage in Belarus

Despite tight security measures, protests against the invasion have been held across Belarus, including on 27 February 2022, the day of voting on changes to the Belarusian constitution, during which 800 people were detained. Belarusian activists have also disrupted the work of the Belarusian Railway, which transports Russian military trains, by destroying control points, organising short circuits, and damaging network infrastructure. There have been numerous acts of sabotage targeting the railway system, with the Belarusian Interior Ministry reporting around 80 such acts as of April 2022.

Belarusian Volunteers Serving in Ukrainian Armed Forces

Belarusians have also fought alongside Ukraine, with more than 200 citizens joining the Armed Forces of Ukraine and an additional 300 volunteers coming through Poland. In July 2023, it was reported that around 450 Belarusians were fighting for Ukraine in various units, including the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment, the Pahonia Regiment, the Belarusian Volunteer Corps, and the Second International Legion.

Anti-War Actions by the Belarusian Diaspora

Belarusians living outside Belarus and Ukraine have expressed their solidarity with Ukraine by attending anti-war rallies, helping organisations assisting Ukrainian refugees, and collecting and delivering financial and humanitarian aid. They have also assisted Belarusian volunteers fighting for Ukraine.

Churches and Religious Organisations

The clampdown on protests in 2020-2021 limited the ability of Christian communities to express their positions independently. However, the Christian Vision group, mostly based abroad, condemned the aggression and the use of Belarusian territory by the Russian army. They expressed solidarity with Ukraine and called on Belarusian soldiers not to participate in the war.

Initially, the leadership of the main Belarusian Christian denominations avoided referring to the conflict as an invasion or war. However, following criticism, they have expressed concern about the political conflict escalating into a war and called for Belarus to refrain from participating.

Impact of the Opposition

The activities of Belarus's democratic opposition have drawn greater international attention, raising awareness of the human rights abuses committed by the Lukashenko regime. The opposition has also helped counter the regime's domestic disinformation efforts and highlighted the growing Russian control over Belarus, which many observers have likened to a "creeping annexation".

The country's relationship with Russia

Belarus's relationship with Russia has been a close one, with Belarus acting as a crucial ally to Russia in the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Before the invasion, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to conduct military drills on its territory, and even allowed Russia to stage part of the invasion from its land, giving Russia the shortest route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv.

The relationship between the two countries has been developing since the 2014 Ukrainian crisis, during which Belarus acted as a mediator and peacemaker, taking a neutral stance on Russia's annexation of Crimea. However, the 2020 political crisis in Belarus increased Aliaksandr Lukashenko's dependence on the Kremlin, and he became a crucial ally to Russia.

Since the invasion, Belarus has continued to support Russia, allowing Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory and shoot at Ukrainian targets. There have also been reports of Belarusian troops in Ukraine fighting alongside Russians, although Lukashenko has denied these claims.

In early 2023, Lukashenko stated that there would be "no way" he would send soldiers into Ukraine unless attacked first. Despite this, in October 2024, Lukashenko ordered Belarusian troops to join Russian troops near Ukraine, claiming that Kyiv posed a clear threat to Belarus. This statement came after Ukraine's successful counteroffensive in September 2022, which recaptured large areas in the northeast.

The involvement of Belarus in the conflict has been condemned by Western countries, with the US, EU, UK, Canada, and Japan imposing sanctions. Belarus's participation in the conflict is also unpopular among the general population, with protests being held on the day of a constitutional referendum that revoked Belarus's neutral and non-nuclear status.

Belarus has also been accused of violating the UN General Assembly resolution of 1974 and its obligations towards Ukraine under a "Treaty of Friendship on Good-Neighbourliness and Cooperation" signed in 1995. As a result, Belarus may have to pay reparations to Ukraine at the end of the war.

The future of Belarus's role in the conflict remains uncertain, but the country's independence is at stake, and the possibility of becoming a direct participant in the war against Ukraine remains.

The future of Belarus's independence

Belarus's future independence is uncertain, and it is heavily dependent on the outcome of the war in Ukraine. Since the early days of the Russian invasion, Belarus has been a crucial ally to Russia, allowing its territory to be used as a launching pad for the invasion and providing military hardware, munitions, and components. This has resulted in a severe deterioration of Ukraine-Belarus relations and economic cooperation.

Belarus's role in the conflict has evolved, and it now participates in Russia's psychological and informational operations, conducting military drills and spreading misinformation. The country's military potential has increased, with the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons and fighters from the Wagner group. However, the number of ground forces has decreased, and Belarus is facing a demographic crisis due to the repression of those who oppose Lukashenko and the resulting exodus of young people.

While the future is uncertain, it is clear that Belarus's independence is at stake. The country's involvement in the Ukraine conflict, its domestic political situation, and the actions of both the government and the opposition will shape its path towards maintaining or losing its independence.

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