Belarus: Unraveling The Recent Turmoil And Political Landscape

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Belarus has been in the news recently for its close ties with Russia, its involvement in the war in Ukraine, and its treatment of dissidents. The country, led by President Alexander Lukashenko, has been described as Europe's last dictatorship. In 2020, Lukashenko claimed victory in a disputed election, sparking mass protests and a subsequent government crackdown. The country has also been accused of forced transfers of Ukrainian children, and its involvement in Russia's invasion of Ukraine has drawn condemnation from Western powers, resulting in sanctions.

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The Belarusian government's crackdown on dissent

The 2020 protests, which saw more than 100,000 people pack into central Minsk for four consecutive Sundays, were met with a sweeping crackdown. Lukashenko's government arrested more than 35,000 people and beat thousands more. In recent weeks, Belarusian authorities have ramped up raids and arrests of independent journalists and civil society activists. Lukashenko has denounced these activists as "bandits and foreign agents" and vowed to continue a "mopping-up operation" against them.

The Belarusian government has relentlessly targeted anyone expressing even mild dissent. For example, a court in Belarus recently convicted a 50-year-old journalist, Siarhei Hardziyevich, of insulting the president in messages in a deleted chat group, sentencing him to one and a half years in prison.

The government has also gone to extremes to stop its critics, including forcing a Ryanair plane to land in the capital of Minsk in 2021 and arresting dissident journalist Roman Protasevich. In addition, Vitaly Shishov, a Belarusian activist who led a group in Ukraine helping Belarusians fleeing persecution, was found dead in a Kyiv park in 2021. A murder investigation was launched, with police suspecting the killing was made to look like suicide.

In 2021, Belarusian Olympian Krystsina Tsimanouskaya also accused officials from her country of trying to force her to leave the Tokyo Games early after she criticised Belarus Olympic officials on Instagram. She refused to return to Belarus, citing fears for her safety, and was granted refuge in Europe.

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The country's involvement in the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Belarus, a close ally of Russia, has supported its neighbour in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Before the invasion, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to perform military drills on its territory. However, the Russian troops did not leave as scheduled and used Belarus as a staging ground for the invasion, allowing them to take the shortest possible land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. Belarus also allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory and permitted the firing of missiles at Ukrainian targets.

There have been reports of Belarusian troops in Ukraine fighting alongside Russians, but these have been dismissed by the Belarusian leader, Aleksander Lukashenko, who has stated that the Belarusian Armed Forces (BAF) would not participate directly in the conflict. Lukashenko has also assured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that he will not involve Belarusian armed forces on Russia's side. Despite this, the situation along the Belarus-Ukraine border remains tense, with Ukraine closing border checkpoints.

In the early days of the invasion, Belarus was involved in peace initiatives, holding talks between Russia and Ukraine on its border. However, these talks did not result in a lasting ceasefire.

The involvement of Belarus in the conflict has been condemned internationally, with countries such as the US, UK, Canada, and Japan imposing sanctions. According to polls, Belarus's participation in the military conflict is unpopular among its general population, with protests held against the war.

In addition to military support, Belarus has also granted asylum to a former Polish judge, Tomasz Szmydt, who defected to the country and faced espionage charges in Poland, a vocal supporter of Ukraine.

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The death of a Belarusian activist in Ukraine

Vitaly Shishov, a 26-year-old Belarusian activist living in exile in Ukraine, was found hanged in a park near his home in Kyiv in August 2021. Ukrainian police have launched a murder investigation, considering the possibility of suicide or a murder staged to appear as suicide. Shishov had felt under constant surveillance since he left Belarus in 2020 after taking part in anti-government protests. He had been warned about possible threats, including kidnapping and death.

Shishov led the Belarusian House in Ukraine (BDU), a Kyiv-based organisation that helps Belarusians fleeing persecution find accommodation, jobs, and legal advice. Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania have become safe havens for tens of thousands of Belarusians during a security crackdown by President Alexander Lukashenko following a disputed election in 2020. Lukashenko, who has been in power for over 30 years, allowed Russia to use his country's territory to invade Ukraine in February 2022 and has deployed Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.

The death of Shishov has raised concerns among Belarusian exiles in Ukraine, who do not feel safe even in Kyiv. They believe Shishov was killed by the Belarusian secret services, noting that he had reported being watched and followed. A statement by the BDU said, "Vitaly was under surveillance... We were also repeatedly warned... about all kinds of provocations, including kidnapping and liquidation." Kyiv police claim they had no information about Shishov being under surveillance.

The investigation into Shishov's death is of international concern. The US State Department spokesman said, "We condemn in the strongest terms the ongoing violent crackdown on Belarusian civil society and transnational repression by the Lukashenko regime." The US will closely monitor the Ukrainian authorities' investigation. The European Parliament has also condemned the murder, blaming the Lukashenko regime.

Shishov's death is part of a broader context of Belarus's repression of dissent. Lukashenko's administration has arrested and detained thousands of people for their support of Ukraine and their anti-war stance. Belarus has close ties with Russia, and both countries have been accused of human rights abuses and suppressing freedom of speech.

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The Belarusian Olympic athlete who refused to return to her homeland

Belarus has been ruled by President Alexander Lukashenko since 1994. The country has been under scrutiny for its support of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and its human rights record, with sanctions and bans from international sporting competitions imposed.

In this context, Belarusian sprinter Krystsina Tsimanouskaya's refusal to return to her homeland during the 2020 Tokyo Olympics is notable. Tsimanouskaya, 24, criticised her coaches for "negligence" and was abruptly removed from the competition and taken to the airport by team officials. Fearing arrest and reprisals, she refused to board the flight back to Minsk and sought police protection, indicating her intention to seek asylum in the west. This incident brought attention to Lukashenko's tightening grip on Belarusian society, including the world of sports, where athletes have faced imprisonment or consequences for their criticism of the government.

Tsimanouskaya received a humanitarian visa from Poland, which offered to help her continue her athletic career. She was filmed arriving at the Polish embassy in Tokyo, where she sought refuge. Several European countries, including the Czech Republic, Germany, and Austria, had offered her asylum. Tsimanouskaya's husband, Arseniy Zdanevich, also fled to Kyiv, Ukraine, and planned to join her in Poland.

The International Olympic Committee (IOC) spokesperson, Mark Adams, stated that the IOC's priority was Tsimanouskaya's safety and security. He confirmed that they had been in touch with her and that she had spent the night at an airport hotel under protection from Japanese police. Adams also mentioned that the UNHCR and the police were involved in the situation.

This incident highlighted the political tensions and human rights concerns surrounding Belarus and the impact on its athletes, with Tsimanouskaya's actions demonstrating the courage and determination to continue her sporting career free from fear and governmental interference.

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The country's presidential election in January 2025

Belarus, a country that borders Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, has been in the news in recent years due to its close relationship with Russia and its authoritarian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, who has been dubbed "Europe's last dictator." Lukashenko, who has been in power since 1994, has been accused of rigging elections, cracking down on dissent, and supporting Russia's invasion of Ukraine. With this context in mind, let's look ahead to the country's presidential election in January 2025.

The upcoming election will be a significant event in Belarus, as it will determine whether the country continues on its current path under Lukashenko's rule or potentially charts a new direction. Lukashenko is expected to run for reelection and, given his tight grip on power, is likely to be the favourite to win. However, it is worth noting that the country has been facing economic challenges, and there is some discontent among the population regarding his authoritarian rule and alignment with Russia.

In the lead-up to the election, we can expect to see increased political activity and campaigning from both Lukashenko and any opposition candidates who dare to challenge him. The election will likely be a tense affair, with the opposition hoping to gain some ground and present a credible alternative to Lukashenko's rule. However, it is important to note that past elections in Belarus have been marred by allegations of fraud and voter intimidation, and the opposition has often faced harsh repression.

The international community will also be watching the election closely. Western countries, such as the United States and those in Europe, have previously imposed sanctions on Belarus due to human rights concerns and its support for Russia's war in Ukraine. They will be keen to see a free and fair election that reflects the will of the Belarusian people.

The outcome of the January 2025 election will have significant implications for the country's future. If Lukashenko wins reelection, it is likely that he will continue his current policies and maintain Belarus's close relationship with Russia. On the other hand, an opposition victory, though unlikely, could bring about political and economic reforms and potentially improve relations with Western countries.

In conclusion, the presidential election in January 2025 is a crucial event for Belarus, as it will shape the country's direction for the foreseeable future. While Lukashenko is expected to maintain his hold on power, the election will be a test of his popularity amid economic challenges and international condemnation. The world will be watching to see if Belarus can hold a free and fair election, and the outcome will have ramifications beyond its borders.

Frequently asked questions

Alexander Lukashenko, often referred to as "Europe's last dictator", has been the leader of Belarus since 1994. Lukashenko won re-election for a sixth time in 2020 with 80% of the vote, in a ballot deemed “neither free nor fair” by the European Union. This sparked mass protests and a sweeping crackdown from Lukashenko's government. More than 35,000 people were arrested and thousands were beaten by police. Lukashenko has brutally cracked down on any opposition to his power.

Belarus, a close ally of Russia, has supported its eastern neighbour in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Before the start of the offensive, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to perform weeks-long military drills on its territory. Belarus also allowed Russia to stage part of the invasion from its territory, giving Russia the shortest possible land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv. Belarus has allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory and shoot at Ukrainian targets.

The involvement of Belarus in the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been condemned in Western countries, with the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan imposing sanctions against Belarus. The Belarusian opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, has also condemned Lukashenko for participating in the invasion. Tsikhanouskaya was welcomed by Boris Johnson at Downing Street, who told her that the UK is "on her side".

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