Wagner's Belarus Exit: What's Next?

The Wagner Group, a Russian state-funded private military company, has been at the centre of recent speculations regarding its withdrawal from Belarus. The group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, was involved in a short-lived mutiny in June 2023, which ended with a deal that allowed them to relocate to Belarus. This deal was brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, and the group has since been offered a camp in Belarus capable of accommodating up to 5,000 soldiers. However, the future of the Wagner Group in Belarus remains uncertain, with some speculating that they will be incorporated into the Belarusian security apparatus, while others suggest they may be limited to a headquarters presence without many actual fighters.

Wagner Group's withdrawal from Belarus

The Wagner Group's withdrawal from Belarus is a significant development in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The Wagner Group, a Russian state-funded private military company, played a crucial role in the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine and has been accused of committing war crimes.

In June 2023, the Wagner Group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, staged an armed rebellion against Russia after accusing the Defense Ministry of shelling Wagner soldiers. Wagner units seized the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and advanced towards Moscow. However, the mutiny was short-lived, as a deal was brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, allowing Prigozhin and his troops to seek exile in Belarus.

According to the terms of the deal, Wagner forces agreed to end their rebellion and, in exchange, were offered amnesty and safe haven in Belarus. This relocation was presented as a way to de-escalate the situation and avoid further bloodshed. Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that Wagner troops had the choice to either sign contracts with the Defense Ministry, relocate to Belarus, or retire from service.

The Wagner Group's presence in Belarus has raised concerns and sparked speculation about their future activities. Lukashenko suggested that Wagner's extensive combat experience could benefit the Belarusian military, proposing that they serve as instructors. However, observers noted that Lukashenko would likely seek to maintain strict control over the group to prevent any surprises or autonomous actions.

The actual number of Wagner troops in Belarus remains unclear, and there is uncertainty about their future role. Some speculate that Wagner could become Lukashenko's personal guard or be hired for security operations in African countries where they already have a presence. However, the high wages of Wagner mercenaries and the limited financial resources of Belarus make this prospect less feasible.

Another possibility is that Wagner may register as a private military company in Belarus, with their leadership operating from an office in Minsk while the troops are dispersed across various countries. This scenario would allow Lukashenko to maintain control and avoid the presence of a large number of armed mercenaries in his country.

The Wagner Group's withdrawal from Belarus is a complex and dynamic situation, with ongoing negotiations and uncertainties about the group's future activities and influence in the region.

Wagner Group's mutiny against Russia

On 23 June 2023, the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, staged an uprising against the Government of Russia. The mutiny marked the climax of the Wagner Group–Ministry of Defence conflict, which had begun about six months earlier.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, had been expressing resentment towards Minister of Defence Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, blaming them for Russia's military inadequacies, especially during the Wagner-led Battle of Bakhmut. Prigozhin characterised the rebellion as a "march of justice" against the Russian military establishment.

Wagner mercenaries seized Rostov-on-Don, where the Southern Military District is headquartered, while an armoured column advanced through Voronezh Oblast towards Moscow. They were armed with mobile anti-aircraft systems and were able to repel aerial attacks by the Russian military.

However, the rebellion was short-lived. On 24 June, President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, brokered a settlement with Prigozhin, who agreed to halt the rebellion. Prigozhin and his troops were allowed to withdraw to Belarus, and the criminal charges against them were dropped.

The mutiny exposed divisions within the Russian establishment and revealed the weakness of the Russian security forces and Putin's monopoly on the use of force. It also highlighted the dissatisfaction within the Wagner Group towards the Russian military leadership and the government's handling of the war in Ukraine.

In the year following the mutiny, the Kremlin has effectively replaced the Wagner Group with other Russian state and paramilitary units. Some former Wagner forces have joined the Rosgvardia, or National Guard, which has been described as Putin's "private army". Other ex-Wagner forces have signed up to fight with Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Chechnya.

The Wagner Group is still operating in the Central African Republic (CAR), allegedly controlled by Prigozhin's son, Pavel. However, overall, the group has fragmented, and its future remains uncertain following Prigozhin's death in a plane crash on 23 August 2023.

Belarus's role in the Wagner deal

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko negotiated a deal to end the rebellion, which resulted in the Wagner Group agreeing to stop their advance on Moscow and relocate to Belarus. Lukashenko claimed that he personally convinced Prigozhin to stand down and that he talked Putin out of destroying the Wagner columns. As part of the deal, the Wagner Group and its leaders would escape punishment for mutiny and be offered safe haven in Belarus.

The Wagner Group's move to Belarus was also presented as an option by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who stated that Wagner troops could choose between signing contracts with the Defense Ministry, relocating to Belarus, or retiring from service. Putin's comments reflected his efforts to secure the loyalty of the Wagner mercenaries and prevent further escalation.

The Belarusian Defense Ministry did not disclose the number of Wagner troops in Belarus, leaving it to Prigozhin and Moscow to decide on the relocation. However, it is reported that convoys of Wagner troops have been entering Belarus, with the Belarusian authorities offering them a field camp.

The presence of the Wagner Group in Belarus adds to the country's involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Belarus has allowed Russian troops to invade Ukraine through its border and permitted the stationing of Russian nuclear weapons on its territory.

Wagner Group's presence in Belarus

The Wagner Group, a Russian state-funded private military company, has been present in Belarus since July 2023. The group's arrival in the country was part of a deal negotiated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to end the Wagner Group's short-lived mutiny against the Russian state in June 2023.

The Wagner Group's mutiny began on June 23, 2023, when its forces swept through the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, capturing the military headquarters without firing a shot. The group's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, called it a “march of justice” to oust Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Valery Gerasimov. The mutiny posed a serious threat to Russian President Vladimir Putin's rule, and the rebels advanced to within 200 kilometres of Moscow before an agreement was reached.

Under the terms of the deal negotiated by Lukashenko, the Wagner Group's leaders and troops would escape punishment for their mutiny and be offered safe haven in Belarus. The group's fighters were given the choice between signing contracts with the Russian Defence Ministry, moving to Belarus, or retiring from service. Putin offered the Wagner officers the option to continue serving as a single unit under their same commander.

The Wagner Group has a history of serving Russian interests and has been accused of war crimes, including murder, torture, rape, and robbery of civilians. The group first emerged during the war in Donbas, where it helped Russian separatist forces in Ukraine from 2014 to 2015. It played a significant role in the later full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, recruiting Russian prison inmates for frontline combat. The group has also supported pro-Russian regimes in countries such as Syria, Libya, the Central African Republic, and Mali.

The presence of the Wagner Group in Belarus has raised concerns among some observers, who note that Lukashenko will likely seek to control and monitor the group's activities closely. There are questions about what the group will do in Belarus, as the country already has internal troops, anti-riot police units, and other security services. Lukashenko has suggested that Wagner fighters could serve as instructors for the Belarusian army, given their combat experience. However, the relatively small size of the Belarusian military does not necessitate thousands or even hundreds of instructors.

The future of the Wagner Group in Belarus remains uncertain. There are speculations that the group may register as a private military company in Belarus, with its leadership based in an office in Minsk while the actual troops are dispersed across various countries. However, the idea of an autonomous group of armed mercenaries in Belarus is unimaginable, and any deal between Lukashenko and Prigozhin would require a level of trust that is currently lacking.

Wagner Group's future in Belarus

The Wagner Group's future in Belarus was thrown into doubt following the presumed death of its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in a plane crash in August 2023. Prigozhin was a former close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin and had led the Wagner Group since its founding in 2014.

In the aftermath of Prigozhin's death, members of the Wagner Group began leaving their large base in Belarus, with reports suggesting that the group's camps were being dismantled. The National Resistance Center of Ukraine reported that Wagner fighters began leaving in convoys, likely headed towards the Russian border. Belarusian special services attempted to prevent the mercenaries' vehicles from leaving the country.

The Wagner Group's presence in Belarus was a source of tension in the region, with Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia threatening to close their borders due to Wagner's activities along the border.

It is unclear what the future holds for the Wagner Group in Belarus. However, it is worth noting that the group has a history of operating in multiple countries, including Ukraine, Syria, Sudan, Mozambique, and Libya. The group has also been accused of committing war crimes, including murder, torture, and robbery of civilians.

In October 2023, pro-Wagner groups reported that Pavel Prigozhin, the son of Yevgeny Prigozhin, had taken over command of the Wagner Group. It remains to be seen whether this leadership change will result in a renewed presence for the Wagner Group in Belarus.

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