Belarus: The Next Ukraine? A Geopolitical Analysis

There are concerns that Belarus could become the next Ukraine, with Russia's influence and military presence in the country growing. Belarus has been described as an oasis of stability compared to its neighbour, Ukraine, which has been engulfed in political upheaval and war with Russia. However, this stability is threatened by Russia's attempts to exert greater control over Belarus, including through the revival of the 1999 Union Treaty, which would harmonise public policy between the two countries and potentially set them on a path towards unification. Belarus has shown reluctance to integrate further with Russia, but its economic dependence on its neighbour and historical ties make it vulnerable to Russian influence. The situation in Belarus is further complicated by internal political struggles, with pro-democracy protests and a crackdown on dissent by the authoritarian regime of Alexander Lukashenko, dubbed Europe's last dictator. The outcome of the ongoing crisis in Belarus will have implications for the region's stability and could shape the future of Russia's relations with its former vassal states.

The role of Alexander Lukashenko

Lukashenko has maintained a close relationship with Russia, with Belarus depending on subsidised Russian oil and gas to support its Soviet-style welfare state. This reliance on Russia has given Moscow significant influence over Belarus, with the Kremlin pushing for greater political, economic, and military integration between the two countries. Lukashenko initially appeared open to this idea, signing the 1999 Union Treaty with then-Russian President Boris Yeltsin, which aimed to harmonise various aspects of public policy between the nations. However, Lukashenko has also sought to preserve Belarus's sovereignty, preventing Russian oligarchs from gaining too much economic influence and refusing to allow Russian troops to maintain bases in the country.

Lukashenko's stance towards Russia became more complicated following the 2020 Belarusian presidential election, which was widely condemned as fraudulent and sparked massive pro-democracy protests. Facing a wave of domestic opposition, Lukashenko became increasingly dependent on Russian support, turning his country into another front in Putin's war against Ukraine. This shift in Belarus-Russia relations has been marked by increased military cooperation, with Belarus deploying forces and hardware to its Ukrainian border in a manner coordinated with Moscow.

Lukashenko's suppression of pro-democracy protests and opposition groups has drawn condemnation from Western countries, who have denounced election results in Belarus as fraudulent and threatened sanctions. However, there appears to be a lack of strong willingness to intervene in Belarus, in contrast to the response during the 2014 Ukraine crisis. This may be due to a variety of factors, including the absence of a strong anti-Russian sentiment within Belarus and the country's lack of a recent history of pre-Soviet independence.

In conclusion, Lukashenko's role in shaping Belarus's domestic and foreign policies has been crucial in determining the country's trajectory. His complex relationship with Russia, marked by both cooperation and resistance, has made Belarus a key player in the geopolitical tensions between Moscow and the West. While Lukashenko's authoritarianism and suppression of dissent have drawn criticism, his ability to maintain a degree of independence from Russia has also been credited with contributing to regional stability.

Russia's influence on Belarus

Russia has sought to further integrate Belarus, with President Vladimir Putin pushing to revive the 1999 Union Treaty, which would harmonise public policy between the two nations. This has been resisted by Belarus, which has maintained its sovereignty, despite its economic reliance on Russia. Belarus has prevented Russian oligarchs from exerting influence over its economy and has kept Russian troops from having bases on its territory.

However, Russia has been increasing its military presence in Belarus, with reports in 2021 of Russian troops massing on the Ukrainian border, and in 2022, Russian forces were permitted to stage part of the invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory. Belarus has also stated that Russia can bring its nuclear weapons onto Belarusian soil.

Russia exerts considerable influence in the Belarusian information space, with Russian media being a tool of interference. Russian-based social media networks like VK and Odnoklassniki are popular in Belarus and are used to disseminate pro-Kremlin, anti-Western propaganda.

Russia's influence in Belarus is a testing ground for Putin, and the country represents a potentially dangerous harbinger of things to come.

The West's response

The United States

The US has denounced the election results in Belarus as fraudulent and called for a new vote. However, it has not shown a strong willingness to intervene in the situation as it did during the Ukraine crisis in 2014. The US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, offered to supply Belarus with American oil and gas, but this offer seems largely symbolic given the shipping costs involved.

Europe

European countries have also denounced the election results and threatened sanctions, but no concrete actions have been taken so far. Poland, Lithuania, and other Eastern European countries hostile to Russia have been more aggressive in their response, hoping to spread anti-government sentiments from Belarus to Russia.

NATO

NATO has been involved in the Ukraine-Russia conflict but does not seem to have a significant presence in Belarus. Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister, Oleksiy Reznikov, announced that his country would no longer participate in peace talks with Russia in Minsk, previously a neutral ground for negotiations.

The International Community

The international community has been monitoring the situation in Belarus, particularly the suppression of pro-democracy protests and the crackdown on opposition leaders. Human rights observers have identified a large number of political prisoners in Belarusian detention centers, and the opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has called on the West to react to the recent arrests.

Belarus's national identity

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Belarus underwent limited reform and retained close ties with Russia, relying on subsidised Russian oil and gas. The country's current president, Alexander Lukashenko, has been described as a "living artifact of Soviet antinationalism". He changed the country's flag to resemble the Soviet-era version and discouraged the use of the Belarusian language, with the government conducting its business mostly in Russian. Lukashenko's Soviet-style welfare state and Belarus's economic dependence on Russia have contributed to the country's close relationship with its neighbour.

However, there are signs that a distinct Belarusian national identity is emerging, particularly among the younger generation. Following the controversial 2020 presidential election, which sparked widespread protests, some school teachers and civil society activists have promoted the Belarusian language and culture as a form of resistance to Moscow's pressure for integration. There have been demonstrations against Russian encroachment on Belarusian sovereignty, indicating a growing sense of national identity and independence.

The evolution of Belarus's national identity is also reflected in the country's political landscape. Lukashenko has ruled the country since 1994 and has maintained a firm grip on power, with the bureaucracy he created remaining stable and operating normally. However, the opposition groups have formed alliances and gained support, particularly among those seeking a more democratic and independent Belarus.

In summary, Belarus's national identity is shaped by its historical and cultural ties to Russia, the influence of the Soviet era, and the emergence of a distinct Belarusian language and culture. While the country has maintained close ties with Russia, there is a growing sense of independence and national identity, particularly among the younger generation, which may impact Belarus's political and economic trajectory in the years to come.

The impact of the 2020 election

The 2020 election in Belarus had a profound impact on the country, sparking unprecedented anti-regime protests and forcing Lukashenko to become increasingly dependent on Putin. The election also highlighted the ineffectiveness of the authoritarian strategies that had previously sustained the political apathy and resigned acceptance of the population, allowing for the emergence of a new form of political mobilisation.

The election, which was held on 9 August 2020, resulted in Lukashenko being declared the winner with just over 80% of the vote. This outcome was disputed by opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who claimed to have won with at least 60% of the vote and subsequently formed the Coordination Council to facilitate a transfer of power. The election was marred by allegations of widespread electoral fraud, with numerous countries and the European Union refusing to accept the result and imposing sanctions on Belarusian officials.

The election also brought gender dynamics to the forefront, with Lukashenko's male chauvinism damaging his legitimacy among women. Tsikhanouskaya's campaign, on the other hand, empowered Belarusian women to challenge the president's views and express their readiness to play a leading role in political participation.

The aftermath of the election saw a wave of repression, with thousands of people detained, prosecuted, and imprisoned. The harsh response from the government further damaged Lukashenko's legitimacy and led to the emergence of a decentralised resistance movement. The protest spirit remained strong, with creative expressions of dissent, such as the "Slipper Revolution", becoming popular.

The election also had international repercussions, with the European Union and several European countries refusing to recognise Lukashenko's presidency. The regime became increasingly isolated, facing sanctions and losing access to international platforms.

Overall, the 2020 election in Belarus had far-reaching consequences, catalysing political mobilisation, exposing the ineffectiveness of authoritarian strategies, and shaping both domestic and foreign relations.

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