The Lukashenko Paradox: Understanding His Popularity In Belarus

Alexander Lukashenko is the first and longest-serving President of Belarus, having held office since 1994. Lukashenko has been described as a people's politician and president of the ordinary people. However, he has also been labelled Europe's last dictator by the media, and his regime as authoritarian. International monitors have not regarded Belarusian elections as free and fair, except for his initial win. Since his victory in the 1994 election, state repression against the political opposition has become increasingly harsh.

Lukashenko's early economic policies aimed to prevent issues that occurred in other post-Soviet states, such as the establishment of oligarchic structures and mass unemployment. He kept many industries under the control of the government and maintained close ties with Russia. Lukashenko has also been criticised for his suppression of dissent and the media, and for human rights abuses.

Lukashenko's popularity in Belarus is difficult to ascertain due to the country's political climate and the lack of independent polling. However, the largest protests in the country's history took place in 2020, with hundreds of thousands taking to the streets to demonstrate against what they believed to be a rigged election.

Lukashenko's rise to power

Alexander Lukashenko, born on 30 August 1954, has been the President of Belarus since 1994, making him the longest-serving head of state in Europe. Before his political career, Lukashenko worked as the director of a state farm and served in the Soviet Border Troops and the Soviet Army.

In 1990, Lukashenko was elected to the Supreme Soviet of the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, he assumed the position of head of the interim anti-corruption committee of the Supreme Council of Belarus. In 1994, he won the presidency in the country's inaugural presidential election.

Lukashenko's early economic policies aimed to prevent the issues that occurred in other post-Soviet states, such as the establishment of oligarchic structures and mass unemployment. He opposed economic shock therapy during the 1990s post-Soviet transition, maintaining state ownership of key industries in Belarus. This spared Belarus from recessions as devastating as those in other post-Soviet states.

Lukashenko's rule has also been marked by his personalised and deeply authoritarian leadership style. He has relied on the country's secret service, the KGB, to maintain his grip on power. Lukashenko has used referendums to amend laws and even the constitution to expand his authority and scrap term limits. The country's parliament has been stripped of its power, the liberal opposition sidelined, and media outlets censored.

Lukashenko has maintained political power through strong state control of the economy, control over the media, and repression. He is accused of at least four political murders and has imprisoned dozens of political opponents.

His policies and their impact

Alexander Lukashenko's policies have been described as authoritarian and unpredictable. They have been focused on maintaining the Soviet-era economic model, resisting economic and political reforms, and suppressing dissent in the media and among the people.

Economic Policies

Lukashenko has maintained state ownership of key industries in Belarus, preventing the privatisation that occurred in other post-Soviet states. He has focused on stabilising large Soviet enterprises, such as the Minsk Tractor Factory and the Minsk Truck Factory, and kept the private sector small. He has also kept the Belarusian economy closely tied to Russia, exporting refined Russian oil and fertilisers to the West.

Political Policies

Lukashenko has been accused of political repression, including the suppression of opponents and limits on media freedom. He has been accused of at least four political murders and has imprisoned dozens of political opponents. He has also been accused of election rigging, with his victory in the 2020 election sparking the largest anti-government protests during his rule.

Foreign Policy

Lukashenko's foreign policy has been focused on maintaining close ties with Russia, signing a number of agreements with Russian President Boris Yeltsin calling for various forms of union between the two countries. He has also sought to improve relations with the West, meeting with Pope Benedict XVI in 2009 and receiving a state visit from Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen in 2019. However, his relationship with the EU has been strained due to his policies towards domestic opponents, resulting in visa sanctions and travel bans.

Impact of Policies

The impact of Lukashenko's policies has been mixed. On the one hand, they have prevented the economic shocks experienced by other post-Soviet states and maintained a relatively high employment rate. Belarus was also the first post-Soviet country to recover from economic devastation. On the other hand, his policies have led to isolation from Western countries and dependence on Russia, as well as frequent financial crises due to current account deficits.

International relations

Alexander Lukashenko, the President of Belarus, has had a complex relationship with the international community. Often referred to as "Europe's last dictator" by Western media, Lukashenko has been criticised for human rights abuses and political oppression. As a result, he has faced sanctions from the United Kingdom, the European Union, the United States, and other Western governments.

Since his disputed election win in 2020, Lukashenko has become increasingly isolated from the West. This has led to greater dependence on Russia, with whom he has maintained close ties. Lukashenko played a crucial role in creating the Union State of Russia and Belarus, which allows for the free movement of people between the two countries. However, tensions between Lukashenko and Russia emerged in 2020, with Russia cutting economic subsidies to Belarus. Lukashenko accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of trying to make Belarus a part of Russia, while Russia accused Lukashenko of collaborating with opposition activists. Despite this, Lukashenko allowed Russian forces to stage their 2022 invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory.

Lukashenko has sought to broaden his diplomatic horizons beyond Russia, visiting countries such as China, Zimbabwe, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran. These visits have been interpreted as an attempt to demonstrate that attempts to isolate Belarus have failed and that Minsk still has partners around the world. Lukashenko's relationship with the EU has been strained, with the bloc imposing travel bans and other sanctions on him and his associates. However, there have been periods of improved relations, with the EU occasionally lifting sanctions to encourage dialogue and gain concessions.

Lukashenko has maintained close ties with China, advocating an approach of "understanding China, learning from China, and approaching China." He has also received support from other world leaders, including Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, Serbian actress and film director Ivana Zigon, and Nobel Prize winner Zhores Alferov. Lukashenko's rule has been characterised by a focus on economic development and social welfare, with Belarus experiencing economic growth under his leadership.

The 2020 election and its aftermath

The 2020 Belarusian presidential election was held on 9 August, with early voting beginning on 4 August. The incumbent, Alexander Lukashenko, was announced by the Central Election Commission (CEC) to have won a sixth term in office, with just over 80% of the vote. However, the election was marred by allegations of widespread electoral fraud.

Opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya claimed to have won a decisive first-round victory with at least 60% of the vote and called on Lukashenko to start negotiations. She subsequently formed the Coordination Council to facilitate a transfer of power and stated her readiness to organise "long-term protests" against the official results. All seven members of the Coordination Council Presidium were arrested or forced into exile.

The election results were not recognised by numerous countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the European Union, which imposed sanctions on Belarusian officials deemed responsible for "violence, repression, and election fraud". The disputed election results sparked widespread protests across Belarus, with demonstrators barricading areas and security forces responding with tear gas and flashbangs.

Tsikhanouskaya was detained by Belarusian security services on the night of the election after submitting a formal complaint to the CEC. She was later escorted to Lithuania, reportedly as part of a deal to secure the release of her campaign manager, Maria Moroz. While in detention, she appeared in a video, seemingly under duress, calling on protesters to stop and accept Lukashenko's victory. However, after her release, she published another video, claiming to have won the election with between 60 and 70% of the vote and calling for the creation of a transitional council to facilitate a peaceful transfer of power.

Lukashenko was inaugurated for his sixth term on 23 September 2020. In the aftermath of the election, there were increased arrests and violence against protesters, with reports of torture and claims of human rights abuses. International reactions to the election and the subsequent crackdown were mixed, with some countries accepting the results and others imposing sanctions. The situation also led to demonstrations of solidarity with the Belarusian opposition in over 20 countries worldwide.

His legacy

Alexander Lukashenko, the first President of Belarus, has been in power since 1994. He is often referred to as "Europe's last dictator" and has been criticised for his authoritarian leadership style.

Lukashenko's legacy is complex and multifaceted. On the one hand, he has been credited with stabilising the Belarusian economy and preventing recessions as devastating as those experienced by other post-Soviet states. He maintained state ownership of key industries, a socialist economic model, and Soviet-era symbolism. This approach, along with his opposition to economic shock therapy during the post-Soviet transition in the 1990s, helped Belarus avoid the severe economic shocks that afflicted other former Eastern Bloc countries.

Lukashenko has also been praised for his role in creating the Union State of Russia and Belarus, which facilitated free movement and opportunities for Belarusians and Russians between the two countries. Additionally, he played a crucial role in brokering a deal to end the Russian Wagner Group rebellion in 2023.

However, Lukashenko's legacy is also marred by allegations of human rights abuses, political repression, and the suppression of dissent. He has been accused of rigging elections, and international monitors have questioned the fairness and freedom of Belarusian elections, except for his initial win. There have been allegations of vote-rigging, media censorship, and the suppression of opposition voices. As a result, Western governments, including the UK, EU, and US, have imposed sanctions on Lukashenko and other Belarusian officials.

Lukashenko's relationship with Russia has been complex. While he maintained close ties with Russia and Vladimir Putin, there have also been tensions and disagreements, particularly regarding trade and Belarus's independence. Lukashenko's dependence on Russia has increased due to his isolation from Western nations.

In recent years, Lukashenko's popularity has waned, with mass protests erupting following the 2020 presidential election, which was marred by allegations of electoral fraud. The largest protests in Belarus' history took place in 2020, with hundreds of thousands taking to the streets. Lukashenko's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and his interference in the electoral process sparked widespread discontent.

Lukashenko's legacy is further complicated by his role in enabling Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He allowed Russian troops to use Belarusian territory as a launchpad for the invasion, leading to sanctions from Western nations.

Overall, Lukashenko's legacy is characterised by his authoritarian rule, economic policies, and complex foreign relations, particularly with Russia. His supporters credit him with stabilising the economy and maintaining Belarus's independence, while critics highlight human rights abuses, political repression, and his role in enabling the Ukraine invasion.

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