Russia Bombing Belarus: Is Moscow Attacking Its Neighbor?

Russia's ally Belarus has been accused of targeting hundreds of people for showing solidarity with Ukraine during the war. A human rights report by the Viasna human rights centre says that at least 1,671 Belarusians were detained for their anti-war stance or for expressing solidarity with Ukraine, with at least 200 of them given prison sentences ranging from one to 25 years on charges of extremism and conspiracy against the state.

Belarus has also been accused of intensifying its crackdown on dissent ahead of a presidential election in January 2025, in which Lukashenko is seeking a seventh term. Lukashenko has ruled Belarus with an iron fist for more than 30 years and has relied on Moscow's subsidies and support. He allowed the Kremlin to use his country's territory to invade Ukraine in February 2022 and to deploy some of its tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.

Russia's ally Belarus arrests hundreds for supporting Ukraine

Russia's ally Belarus has arrested hundreds of people for showing solidarity with Ukraine during the war. At least 1,671 Belarusians were detained for their anti-war stance or for expressing support for Ukraine, and at least 200 of them have been given prison sentences ranging from one to 25 years on charges of "extremism" and "conspiracy against the state." The Viasna human rights center reported that people were tortured, held in inhumane conditions, and given fines, with some even subjected to forced psychiatric treatment.

A Ukrainian diplomat, Ihor Kyzym, stated that at least 12 Ukrainians in Belarus have been convicted of "extremism" and alleged links to Ukrainian security agencies, and subsequently imprisoned. Those sentenced include a 16-year-old student, a Ukrainian official, and individuals with relatives in Belarus.

The crackdown comes from Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has ruled the country for over 30 years with support from Moscow. Lukashenko allowed Russia to use Belarusian territory to invade Ukraine in February 2022 and permitted the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Intensifying ahead of the January presidential election, the crackdown aims to suppress dissent as Lukashenko seeks a seventh term.

In contrast, Lukashenko has pardoned a small number of political prisoners, signalling a willingness to engage in dialogue with the US and the European Union, which have imposed sanctions on his regime. However, the contradictory actions from the Belarusian government have led to confusion, with repressions intensifying even as some prisoners are pardoned.

Russia deploys bombers and troops to Belarus

Russia has deployed bombers and troops to Belarus, raising concerns in the West about Moscow's intentions toward Ukraine and its other neighbours.

In February 2022, Russia moved troops from Siberia and the Far East to Belarus for what it described as joint military drills. Satellite images provided by Maxar Technologies showed ground attack aircraft, troop tents, and other military equipment at Luninets airfield in Belarus. The Russian deployment included Sukhoi Su-25 ground attack aircraft and Tu-22M3 long-range bombers, which performed patrol missions over Belarus.

The presence of Russian troops and military assets in Belarus has raised concerns that Moscow could stage an attack on Ukraine from the north. Belarus shares a 1,084-kilometer (670-mile) border with Ukraine, and it allowed Russian forces to use its territory during the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

In addition to conventional forces, Russia has also moved tactical nuclear weapons into Belarus, which is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and a close ally of Moscow. The nuclear weapons deployment was first announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin in June 2023 and confirmed by Western officials. The movement of nuclear weapons closer to NATO territory is seen as a political message and an attempt to pressure the alliance's eastern flank.

While the presence of Russian military assets in Belarus has stoked tensions, there have been no reports or indications that Russia is using them to bomb Belarus. However, Russia has conducted numerous air attacks and missile strikes on Ukraine throughout the conflict, including a massive air attack on Kyiv in August 2024 that disrupted power and water supplies in the city.

Belarus intensifies crackdown on dissent ahead of January election

Belarus has intensified its crackdown on dissent ahead of the January 2025 election, with a wave of arrests and raids targeting opposition activists, journalists, and their relatives. The Viasna human rights center reported that at least 159 people were targeted by searches and detentions in multiple Belarusian cities, including the capital, Minsk. The Belarusian Association of Journalists stated that among those arrested was journalist Aksana Yuchkovich, who was involved in helping families of political prisoners. Authorities also launched a criminal investigation into 20 Belarusian analysts and pundits living abroad, accusing them of conspiring to overthrow the government.

The latest wave of repression comes as authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko seeks a seventh term in the upcoming election. Rights campaigners have reported more than 100 arrests across the country since Thursday, specifically targeting participants in online chats created by residents of apartment buildings in various cities. These chats were widely used to coordinate protests during the massive demonstrations triggered by the 2020 presidential vote, which the opposition and the West denounced as a sham.

The outcome of the 2020 election, which secured Lukashenko's sixth term, sparked unprecedented mass protests that rocked the country for months. In response, the Belarusian authorities detained more than 35,000 demonstrators, brutally beating many. Thousands have fled the country, and dozens have been labeled extremists. The current wave of repression is seen as an attempt to intimidate and suppress dissent ahead of the election, with Belarusian police conducting sweeping anti-riot drills as a signal that they will not tolerate any protests.

The European Union's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, has condemned the new wave of arrests, noting that they are taking place ahead of the parliamentary elections in February. Amnesty International's director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Marie Struthers, stated that the arrests represent "a new departure in the chilling campaign to exterminate all vestiges of dissent" since the 2020 election.

Belarus has also been in the news recently for its military drills with Russia, which have raised concerns in the West about a potential attack on Ukraine. Russia has moved troops and nuclear weapons to Belarus, raising tensions with NATO.

Russia moves tactical nuclear weapons into Belarus

Russia has moved tactical nuclear weapons from its borders into Belarus, a country that neighbours Ukraine and NATO members Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania. This is the Kremlin's first deployment of such weapons outside Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. The movement of the weapons marks one of the westernmost deployment points of Russia's atomic arsenal.

The political message

The move is likely aimed at pressuring NATO's eastern flank. It follows years of nuclear sabre-rattling, intended to scare the West into reducing its support for Ukraine, which is now in its third year of war against Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened a wider military showdown with NATO over its continued support for Ukraine. He argues that by deploying its tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, Russia is following the lead of the US, noting that the US has nuclear weapons based in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey.

The military significance

Some experts have downplayed the military significance of the move, arguing that the weapons do not pose a higher or lower threat to NATO simply by being moved several hundred miles closer to NATO territory. Rose Gottemoeller, a former top US arms control envoy and deputy secretary-general of NATO, said:

> The Russians can reach any place in NATO with nuclear missiles with what they have on their own territory... It does not change the threat environment at all. So it is purely a political message.

The response

The US State Department denounced the deployment plan but said Washington had no intention of altering its position on strategic nuclear weapons. A spokesperson said:

> I will just add we have seen no reason to adjust our strategic nuclear posture or any indications that Russia is preparing to use a nuclear weapon.

Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya condemned the move, saying:

> We must do everything to prevent Putin's plan to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus, as this will ensure Russia's control over Belarus for years to come. This will further jeopardize the security of Ukraine and all of Europe.

The Belarus perspective

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said the movement of the nuclear weapons had begun, but it was unclear whether any had arrived in his country. He said:

> This is a weapon of deterrence, a defensive weapon.

The bottom line

While the movement of nuclear weapons into Belarus sends a clear political message, its military significance is disputed. However, it does extend Russia's capability to target several NATO allies in Eastern and Central Europe.

Russia and Belarus conduct joint military drills

Russia and Belarus have conducted joint military drills, with Russia moving troops from Siberia and the Far East to Belarus. This deployment included Russian Tu-22M3 long-range bombers, Sukhoi Su-25 ground attack aircraft, and Iskander missiles, all of which are nuclear-capable. The drills were framed as a warning to the West and a response to statements by Western officials regarding their support for Ukraine.

The Russian troop deployment to Belarus raised concerns in the West about Russia's potential intentions to stage an attack on Ukraine from the north. These concerns were heightened by the presence of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has allowed Russia to use Belarusian territory in the invasion of Ukraine and has facilitated the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Lukashenko has relied on close ties with Russia and has been accused of cracking down on dissent and arresting hundreds of people for their support of Ukraine.

The joint military drills and the movement of Russian troops and weaponry to Belarus sent a clear political message to NATO and the West. However, some experts downplayed the military significance of the move, arguing that Russia already had the capability to reach any NATO member state with nuclear missiles from its own territory. They claimed that the move was purely a political message rather than a genuine military threat.

The drills and the deployment of Russian forces and weaponry in Belarus sparked fears in the West about a potential attack on Ukraine from the north. This concern was further heightened by the presence of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has been a key ally of Russia in the war. Lukashenko allowed Russian troops to station in Belarus during the so-called "drills" before the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Lukashenko has also permitted the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus and facilitated Russia's use of Belarusian territory in the invasion of Ukraine. In addition to these actions, Lukashenko has been accused of intensifying crackdowns on dissent and arresting hundreds of people for their support of Ukraine. At least 1,671 Belarusians were detained for their anti-war stance or for expressing solidarity with Ukraine, according to a report by the Viasna human rights center.

In summary, Russia and Belarus conducted joint military drills involving nuclear-capable aircraft and weaponry. This deployment sent a political message to NATO and raised concerns about a potential attack on Ukraine from the north. The presence of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has been a key ally of Russia, further heightened these tensions and concerns.

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