How Nato Could Isolate Belarus

NATO has been closely observing the developments in Belarus since the country's disputed 2020 presidential election, which led to mass protests and a subsequent crackdown on opposition figures by the Belarusian government. The alliance has condemned Belarus for its role in enabling Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with Belarusian territory being used as a base for Russian forces to launch attacks on Ukraine. In response, NATO allies have suspended practical cooperation with Belarus while maintaining dialogue. The presence of Russian troops in Belarus and the potential for them to be permanently stationed there has raised concerns among NATO members, particularly those on the eastern flank bordering Russia and Belarus, as it enhances Russia's military encirclement of Ukraine and poses a direct threat to the security of Eastern Europe.

NATO's condemnation of Belarus for enabling Russia's invasion of Ukraine

NATO has strongly condemned Belarus for enabling Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In a statement released on 25 February 2022, NATO Heads of State and Government asserted that the invasion, facilitated by Belarus, posed the gravest threat to Euro-Atlantic security in decades. They called on Russia to immediately cease its military assault and withdraw its forces from Ukraine. The statement emphasised that Russia bore full responsibility for the conflict, having rejected diplomacy and dialogue, and that the world would hold both Russia and Belarus accountable for their actions.

Since 1992, when Belarus joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council, NATO has sought to build a partnership with the country, developing dialogue and practical cooperation. However, in 2021, NATO Allies suspended practical cooperation with Belarus, citing concerns over human rights violations and a lack of respect for fundamental freedoms. Despite this, NATO maintained dialogue with Belarus, calling for the release of political prisoners and an end to arbitrary detentions and abductions of opposition figures.

In the lead-up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Belarus allowed Russian forces to utilise its territory and infrastructure, including the deployment of advanced military capabilities and personnel. This marked a significant shift in Belarus-Russia relations, as previously, Belarus had resisted falling under Russia's shadow, even amid disputes. Belarus's decision to side with Moscow was influenced by deteriorating relations with the West following the disputed 2020 presidential election, which resulted in mass protests and international sanctions.

As a result of Belarus's complicity in the war, NATO Allies have condemned the country for its ongoing role in prolonging Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. They have called on Belarus to end its involvement, abide by international law, and respect human rights and fundamental freedoms. NATO has emphasised the negative implications of Russia's deepening political and military integration with Belarus, including the stationing of nuclear weapons in the country, which poses a threat to regional stability and the defence of the Alliance.

The impact of Belarus' actions on regional stability

Since 2020, Belarus' actions have had a profound impact on regional stability, particularly in relation to its role in Russia's war against Ukraine and its increasingly close ties with Moscow.

Following the 2020 Belarusian presidential election, which was widely condemned as rigged, mass protests broke out, and the regime responded with arbitrary detentions and abductions of opposition figures. This prompted NATO to express serious concern and call for the Belarusian authorities to respect fundamental rights and freedoms. The US and EU refused to recognize the election results and sanctioned the regime, leading to a breakdown in relations between Belarus and the West.

In response to this, Belarus aligned itself more closely with Russia, allowing Russian forces to use its territory to attack Ukraine and hosting Russian tactical nuclear weapons. This marked a significant shift in Belarus' stance, as it had previously maintained a certain level of independence from Moscow, even resisting Russian pressure to establish an air base and distancing itself from Russia's confrontational policies.

The presence of Russian troops in Belarus and the deployment of advanced military capabilities, such as Iskander tactical missiles, S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems, and SU-35 fighter jets, have raised concerns among NATO allies, particularly those on the eastern flank. The permanent presence of Russian troops in Belarus would enhance Russia's ability to seal the Suwalki Gap, a strategic strip of land between Poland and Lithuania. If Russia were to control this area, the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania would be cut off from the rest of NATO and vulnerable to aggression.

In addition to the military build-up, Belarus has also engaged in hybrid activities, such as engineering a migrant crisis by pushing large numbers of refugees towards the Polish border. This prompted NATO allies to call on Belarus to respect human rights and abide by international law.

The role of the US in Belarus' shift towards Russia

The US played a role in Belarus' shift towards Russia, although this was not the only factor at play.

Following the 2014 Ukrainian crisis, the US and its European allies sought to pull Belarus away from Russia's influence and associate it with Europe instead. Belarus, feeling an existential threat from Russia, pursued better relations with the West. It released all political prisoners in 2015, leading the US to lift some sanctions. Bilateral relations continued to improve, with diplomatic visits taking place in 2018 and 2019. Belarus also took steps to modernise its military and sought security cooperation with Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine—all countries at odds with Russia.

However, this shift towards the West was not to last. In 2020, Lukashenko's decision to run for re-election angered the liberal opposition, as the election was expected to be rigged in his favour. Lukashenko's victory led to mass protests and a crackdown on dissidents, isolating Belarus from the West. The US refused to recognise Lukashenko's victory, sanctioned his regime, and openly sided with the opposition, leading to a collapse in US-Belarus relations.

After relations with the West broke down, Belarus realigned with Russia. Putin congratulated Lukashenko on his election victory and assured him of Russian support. Lukashenko, now indebted to Putin, accelerated the process of integration with Russia in exchange for financial aid. In 2021, Lukashenko promised to intervene in a future war in Ukraine and acknowledged Russian sovereignty over Crimea. Belarus also amended its constitution to allow the stationing of Russian nuclear weapons on its territory.

In summary, the US initially played a role in improving relations with Belarus and reducing its dependence on Russia. However, following the 2020 election and subsequent crackdown on dissidents, the US abandoned engagement and imposed sanctions, pushing Belarus back towards Russia.

NATO's suspension of practical cooperation with Belarus

Since 1992, when Belarus joined the North Atlantic Cooperation Council, NATO has sought to build a partnership with the country, developing dialogue and practical cooperation in areas of mutual interest. However, in recent years, the relationship between NATO and Belarus has deteriorated, with NATO expressing serious concerns over human rights abuses and a lack of respect for fundamental freedoms in Belarus.

In August and September 2020, following mass protests over the results of the Belarusian presidential election, NATO called on the Belarusian authorities to respect fundamental rights, including freedom of speech and the right to peaceful protest. In May 2021, NATO condemned Belarus for its diversion of a Ryanair flight and the arrest of a Belarusian journalist and his partner. In November 2021, NATO allies suspended all practical cooperation, both civilian and military, with Belarus while maintaining dialogue. This suspension was in response to Belarus sending large numbers of irregular migrants to its borders with Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, as well as its complicity in Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The presence of Russian troops in Belarus and the deployment of advanced Russian military capabilities, including nuclear weapons, have raised concerns among NATO allies, particularly those on the eastern flank that borders Russia and Belarus. The militarization of Belarus has altered the security calculus in Eastern Europe and enhanced Russia's ability to threaten its neighbors. NATO has condemned Russia's nuclear rhetoric and its stationing of nuclear weapons in Belarus, which demonstrate a posture of strategic intimidation.

The suspension of practical cooperation with Belarus by NATO is intended to signal disapproval of Belarus's actions and pressure the country to abide by international law, respect human rights, and end its complicity in Russia's aggression.

The implications of Russia's military integration with Belarus

Russia's military integration with Belarus has had significant implications for regional stability and the defence of the NATO Alliance. Here are some key implications:

• Enabling of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Belarus has enabled Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine by allowing Russian forces to use its territory and infrastructure to launch attacks. This complicity has drawn condemnation from NATO allies, who have called on Belarus to end its support for Russia's war of aggression.
• Deployment of Russian Military Capabilities and Personnel: Russia has deployed advanced military capabilities and personnel in Belarus, including nuclear weapons. This deployment demonstrates a posture of strategic intimidation and poses a threat to the region.
• Negative Impact on Regional Stability: The deepening political and military integration between Russia and Belarus has negatively affected regional stability. It challenges the defence of the NATO Alliance and increases tensions in the area.
• Irresponsible Nuclear Rhetoric: NATO has condemned Russia's irresponsible nuclear rhetoric and coercive signalling, including the announced stationing of nuclear weapons in Belarus. This poses a significant threat to regional security.
• Strained Belarus-Russia Relations: The integration has led to strains in the relationship between Belarus and Russia, with disputes over economic subsidies, border issues, and political differences. Despite this, Russia continues to view Belarus as a critical partner in the region.
• Impact on NATO-Belarus Relations: NATO allies suspended practical cooperation with Belarus in 2021 while maintaining dialogue. This suspension includes civilian and military cooperation, reflecting NATO's concerns over Belarus's actions and their impact on regional stability.

Overall, Russia's military integration with Belarus has heightened tensions in the region, challenged NATO's defence posture, and drawn widespread condemnation from the international community. The implications of this integration have been far-reaching and have contributed to a more complex and volatile geopolitical landscape.

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