Prigozhin's Presence In Belarus: What Does It Mean?

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner Group military company, has arrived in Belarus after staging an armed rebellion against Moscow. Prigozhin's troops advanced towards the Russian capital before the rebellion was halted. Prigozhin then fled to Belarus, where President Alexander Lukashenko said he and his troops were welcome to stay for some time and at their own expense. The Belarusian president also offered the Wagner Group an abandoned military base in the country. Prigozhin's exile to Belarus was part of a deal that ended the short-lived mutiny in Russia, and the criminal case against him has been dropped.

Yevgeny Prigozhin's arrival in Belarus

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, a private military company, and a close confidant of Russian President Vladimir Putin, arrived in Belarus in June 2023. Prigozhin's arrival in Belarus came after he staged an armed rebellion against Moscow, advancing towards the capital with his troops before agreeing to halt the insurrection and go into exile in the former Soviet state.

Prigozhin's brief insurrection shook Russia's leadership, with Putin denouncing those who moved against Moscow as traitors. As part of the deal to end the rebellion, Putin agreed to allow Prigozhin to go into exile and escape criminal prosecution. The agreement also included the Wagner Group handing over its heavy weapons to the Kremlin's military.

Prigozhin's arrival in Belarus was confirmed by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who said that Prigozhin and some of his troops were welcome in the country "for some time" and at their expense. Lukashenko offered the Wagner troops an abandoned base in Belarus, saying, "Set up your tents... We can help in any way we can."

Lukashenko also revealed that he had talked Putin out of killing Prigozhin during the negotiation talks, claiming that he told Putin, "don't do this." He described Prigozhin's soldiers as "the most prepared unit in the Russian army," and suggested that they could provide Belarus with valuable information about warfare.

Prigozhin's whereabouts had been unknown since he was last seen leaving the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don on Saturday evening. His private jet was tracked flying into the Belarusian capital, Minsk, on Tuesday.

The arrival of Prigozhin and the Wagner Group in Belarus has raised concerns among neighbouring NATO members, who worry that the presence of the mercenaries could spell trouble for the region.

The deal that allowed Prigozhin to escape prosecution

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner Group, a private military company, staged an uprising against the Russian military leadership in June 2023. Prigozhin's troops advanced towards Moscow, but the rebellion was called off less than 24 hours after it began. As part of a deal negotiated with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Prigozhin and his troops were allowed to go into exile in Belarus and escape prosecution.

The deal, which was reportedly struck after Putin addressed the nation and denounced the rebellion as "treason", allowed Prigozhin to escape criminal charges for his role in the mutiny. In exchange, Prigozhin agreed to halt the rebellion and relocate his forces to Belarus. The Wagner Group also agreed to hand over its heavy weapons to the Kremlin's military.

According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Lukashenko had a long-standing relationship with Prigozhin, saying the Belarusian president had been acquainted with him for at least 20 years. However, Prigozhin's maverick ways and profanity-laced challenges to authority were at odds with Lukashenko's harsh repression of dissent and independent media in Belarus.

While the details of the deal were not disclosed, Peskov stated that Putin provided "certain guarantees" to avoid a "worst-case scenario". As part of the agreement, Prigozhin and some of his troops were allowed to stay in Belarus for some time at their own expense.

The brief insurrection shook Russia's leadership, and experts speculated that the relationship between Putin and Prigozhin was now too contentious to last. There were also concerns about the potential access of Prigozhin's forces to Russian battlefield nuclear weapons if they were based in Belarus.

The future of the Wagner Group

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner Group, is in Belarus after staging an armed rebellion against Moscow. While the future of the group is uncertain, there are a few possibilities.

Firstly, it is possible that Wagner Group soldiers will follow Prigozhin to Belarus, either out of loyalty or due to dissatisfaction with being absorbed into the Russian military as contract soldiers. This could provide the group with continued support and resources, allowing them to maintain their operations. However, it is unclear if they would be welcomed in Belarus, as Prigozhin's maverick ways are at odds with the country's harsh repression of dissent and independent media.

Secondly, Wagner Group soldiers could sign individual contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry, effectively becoming part of the Russian military. This would likely result in a loss of autonomy for the group but would provide access to additional resources and support from the Russian government.

Thirdly, Wagner Group soldiers may choose to demobilize in Russia and seek other opportunities. This could lead to a disbandment of the group or a significant reduction in its size and influence.

The group's future is further complicated by their recent failures in Mali, which have damaged their reputation for ruthless effectiveness. This may cause countries that previously relied on their services to seek alternative security partners, reducing the group's influence and resources.

In conclusion, the future of the Wagner Group is uncertain, and it remains to be seen whether they will continue to operate as an independent force, be absorbed into the Russian military, or disband. Their fate will likely depend on the decisions of their soldiers, the actions of foreign governments, and their ability to recover from recent setbacks.

The role of Alexander Lukashenko

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has been a key ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Lukashenko has been described as "Europe's last dictator" and has been in power since 1994. He has been accused of human rights violations and cracking down on dissent and independent media. In 2020, he launched a brutal crackdown on protests against his rule, resulting in hundreds of people being sentenced to lengthy prison terms. Lukashenko has also been accused of election fraud, with the 2020 election that won him a sixth term being denounced as fraudulent at home and abroad.

Lukashenko played a key role in negotiating an end to a brief uprising against the Russian Defence Ministry by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, a private military company. Lukashenko reportedly negotiated a deal for Prigozhin and his troops to be exiled to Belarus after their rebellion against Moscow. He stated that Prigozhin and some of his troops were welcome in Belarus "for some time" and at their expense. This move was seen as surprising by some, as Prigozhin's maverick ways are at odds with Lukashenko's harsh repression of dissent.

Lukashenko has also been involved in negotiations with Russia regarding the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. In June 2023, Russia moved a batch of these weapons to its neighbour, and Lukashenko has stated that he is completely ready" to use them if necessary. He has emphasised that Belarus has no plans to attack anyone and that the nuclear weapons will only be used if a foreign soldier steps into Belarus.

Lukashenko has sought to portray Belarus as a stable and secure country, referring to it as a "dictatorship of stability, security, order, kindness and hospitality". He has denied accusations of corruption and has announced his intention to seek a seventh term as president in the country's 2025 election.

Neighbouring countries' reactions

Yevgeny Prigozhin's arrival in Belarus has sparked concern among its neighbouring countries, particularly Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland. Exiled Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya warned that allowing Prigozhin to relocate could lead to him "bringing war to Belarus" and potentially launching another attack on Ukraine. She emphasised that Prigozhin's presence in Belarus would pose a danger to its neighbouring countries.

Tsikhanouskaya also highlighted the discrepancy between Prigozhin's maverick ways and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's harsh repression of dissent and independent media. She criticised Lukashenko for making Belarus a "hostage to other people's games and wars" and asserted that he is "by no means a peacemaker".

Artem Shraibman, a Belarusian political analyst in exile in Poland, offered a similar perspective. He suggested that Prigozhin's stay in Belarus might be temporary, stating, "Prigozhin leaving for Belarus does not mean that Prigozhin will stay there. There's nothing for him to do in Belarus—arrive, exhale, use the corridor, and move on."

The presence of Prigozhin's Wagner troops in Belarus has also raised concerns about access to Russian battlefield nuclear weapons. Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy head of Russia's security council, warned that "the world will be put on the brink of destruction" if Wagnerites obtain nuclear weapons.

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