Avoiding Belarus: Airlines' Political Risk And Passenger Safety

On 23 May 2021, a Ryanair flight from Athens to Vilnius was forced to land in Minsk, Belarus, after the country's authorities claimed there was a bomb threat. The plane was diverted so that Belarusian authorities could arrest Roman Protasevich, an opposition journalist and activist, and his girlfriend, who were on board. In response, the European Union and the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) called on airlines to avoid Belarusian airspace.

The arrest of a journalist

On 23 May 2021, a Ryanair flight from Athens, Greece, to Vilnius, Lithuania, was forced to land in Minsk, Belarus, following a supposed security alert. The Belarusian government claimed to have received a bomb threat from the Middle Eastern militant organisation Hamas, which demanded a ceasefire with Israel. However, this was later denied by Hamas, and the transcript of the conversation between the air traffic controller and Ryanair pilot could not be independently confirmed.

Onboard the flight was Roman Protasevich, a Belarusian journalist and opposition activist. As soon as the plane landed, Protasevich was arrested, along with his travelling companion, Sofia Sapega. Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary accused Belarus of "state-sponsored hijacking, state-sponsored piracy", and believed that the intent of the Belarusian authorities was to remove the journalist and his companion from the flight.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the forced landing was "an attack on freedom of expression and... European sovereignty", and the European Union called on airlines to avoid Belarusian airspace. The UK Civil Aviation Authority also issued a notice to all UK airlines to avoid flying over Belarus, and the Lithuanian government closed its airports to flights from the country.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) condemned the actions of the Belarusian government, with director Willie Walsh stating that it "clearly was an extremely dangerous action". The UN's International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) agreed that the incident may have contravened a core aviation treaty, and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) recommended that airlines exercise caution when operating within or over Minsk.

The EU's response

The EU also imposed economic sanctions on individuals and entities involved in the hijacking, including businesses and economic entities that finance the Belarusian regime. The EU leaders also hoped to block Belavia, the Belarusian state airline, from flying to EU countries.

In addition to the EU's response, the UK imposed similar restrictions, and several major airlines, including Lufthansa, Austrian Airlines, Air France, KLM, and Finnair, announced they would stop flying over Belarus. The Lithuanian government closed its airports to flights from Belarus and urged its citizens to leave the country.

The fallout from the incident had a significant impact on air travel over Belarus, with flight radars showing Belarusian airspace empty after the announcements. This disruption also affected airlines, forcing them to deviate from the most direct and cost-effective routes.

The UK's response

Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab called the incident a "shocking assault on civil aviation and an assault on international law)", and the UK summoned the Belarusian Ambassador to convey its deep alarm at the "reckless actions" of the Belarusian authorities. Raab also said that further sanctions were being considered against the regime of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, and that the UK was actively considering and coordinating with its allies on further sanctions against those responsible for this outlandish conduct".

The impact on Belarussian air travel

The impact on Belarusian air travel has been significant, with the country's airspace becoming largely empty as airlines avoided the country. This has had a particularly notable effect on Belavia, the Belarusian state airline, which operated approximately 419 flights over or to/from Belarus in the week ending May 19, 2021.

The European Union, the United Kingdom, and Ukraine all imposed restrictions on airlines regarding Belarusian airspace. The EU called on airlines based in the bloc to stop flying over Belarus and worked to ban Belarusian airlines from its airspace. The UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) issued a similar notice to UK airlines and suspended all foreign carrier permits held by Belarusian airlines. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky ended flights between Kyiv and Minsk and banned Ukrainian-registered aircraft from flying over Belarus.

Major international carriers, including Lufthansa, Air France, KLM, Finnair, Wizz Air, Austrian Airlines, and Air Baltic, also rerouted flights to avoid Belarusian airspace. Ryanair, Europe's biggest low-cost airline, stated that it would follow EU guidance and not fly over Belarus.

The impact of these actions on Belarussian air travel was profound. Not only did it result in a significant decrease in air traffic to and from the country, but it also disrupted flight routes in the region. Belarus is an important area for overflights, especially after the suspension of flights over eastern Ukraine following the downing of a Malaysia Airlines plane in 2014. Airlines were forced to deviate from the straight-line routes, leading to longer and more expensive flights.

The impact on escape routes for activists

The impact of airlines avoiding Belarus on escape routes for activists is significant. The forced landing of a Ryanair flight by Belarusian authorities in May 2021, which resulted in the arrest of a dissident journalist, Roman Protasevich, and his travelling companion, led to widespread condemnation and avoidance of Belarusian airspace by many airlines and countries. This has had a direct impact on the escape routes available for activists and critics of the Belarusian government.

The European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States all advised their airlines to avoid Belarusian airspace, with the EU and UK also working to ban Belarusian airlines from their airspace. This has resulted in the suspension of flights to and from Belarus by many major airlines, including Lufthansa, Austrian Airlines, Air France, KLM, and Finnair. The Lithuanian government went a step further, closing its airports to flights from Belarus and urging its citizens to leave the country.

The impact of these actions on activists and critics of the Belarusian government is twofold. Firstly, it limits their ability to physically leave the country, as there are now far fewer flights in and out of Belarus, and those that do operate may be subject to increased scrutiny and risk. Secondly, it makes it more difficult for those who are able to leave to do so discreetly, as they may have to take more circuitous routes, increasing the risk of detection and obstruction by the Belarusian authorities. This is especially true for those who may be seeking to escape via clandestine means, such as stowing away on cargo flights or private aircraft.

The avoidance of Belarusian airspace by airlines has also had a broader impact on travel in the region. Airlines are already avoiding Ukrainian airspace due to the conflict with Russia, and the addition of Belarus as an off-limits area presents significant complications and increased costs for airlines and travellers alike. This could further impact activists and critics attempting to leave Belarus, as they may have to contend with reduced flight options and increased security measures on the remaining routes.

Overall, the decision by airlines to avoid Belarus has had a significant impact on the escape routes available to activists and critics of the Belarusian government. It has limited their physical ability to leave the country and increased the risk of detection and obstruction for those who do attempt to escape. This has made it even more difficult for those seeking to flee persecution and oppression in Belarus to do so safely and discreetly.

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