Russian Troops In Belarus: Where Are They Stationed?

The presence of Russian troops in Belarus has been a cause for concern for its neighbours, with fears that Belarus could be pressured to join the war in Ukraine. In February 2022, Russia moved troops from the Far East to the Belarus-Ukraine border, with joint Russian-Belarusian military exercises taking place over ten days. Since then, Russia has maintained two military bases in Belarus and is preparing to station tactical nuclear weapons in the country. In October 2022, thousands of Russian troops underwent military exercises in Belarus before being deployed to fight in Ukraine. More recently, in July 2024, satellite images showed the dismantling of Russian training camps in Belarus, raising questions about whether Russia needs more troops at the front to halt Ukraine's counteroffensive. The presence of Russian troops in Belarus has been seen as a threat to the country's sovereignty, with Belarusian territory being used as a staging area for the Russian army.

Russian troops in Belarus as a staging ground for the invasion of Ukraine

In the prelude to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Belarus became a staging ground for Russian forces preparing to invade Ukraine. The 5th, 29th, 35th, and 36th Combined Arms Armies of the Eastern Military District, the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, the 98th Guards Airborne Division, and the Pacific Fleet's 155th Separate Marine Brigade were all deployed to Belarus, alongside the headquarters of the Eastern Military District.

Russian troops from Belarus partook in the Kyiv offensive, ultimately failing to take Ukraine's capital and withdrawing from northern Ukraine in April 2022. Russian forces' efforts were hampered in part by resistance in Belarus, which led to the damaging of Belarusian rail lines and the serious disruption of Russian logistics.

The landlocked country of 9 million people borders northern Ukraine and served as a staging ground for Russian troops in the months preceding the invasion. Belarus has a nearly 700-mile border with Ukraine, and Kyiv is closer to Belarus than it is to Russia. In the winter of 2022, more than 30,000 Russian troops gathered in Belarus under the guise of joint training exercises. Russia claimed those forces would leave after the exercises ended in late February, but instead, they invaded Ukraine on February 24.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Belarus has been a key staging ground for Russian forces. Russian troops coming from Belarus have approached Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, along the west side of the Dnieper River and attacked Chernihiv, a smaller city to Kyiv's northeast. Russian missiles have also been launched from Belarus, and injured Russian soldiers have been evacuated to hospitals in the country.

The involvement of Belarus was condemned in Western countries, and the country has faced sanctions from the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan.

Russian military presence in Belarus has increased greatly in size since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Following his victory in the 1994 Belarusian presidential election, Alexander Lukashenko began the process of militarily integrating Belarus and Russia, leading to a series of 1995 military agreements that provided two military bases to the Russian Armed Forces and gave them a role in guarding the Belarusian border.

The role of Alexander Lukashenko in the military integration of Belarus and Russia

Following his victory in the 1994 Belarusian presidential election, Alexander Lukashenko began the process of militarily integrating Belarus and Russia as part of the Union State initiative. This led to a series of military agreements in 1995, which provided two military bases to the Russian Armed Forces and gave them a role in guarding the Belarusian border. Lukashenko also played a crucial role in brokering a deal to end the Russian Wagner Group rebellion in 2023, allowing some Wagner soldiers into Belarus.

Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Armed Forces of Belarus had been founded as an independent formation from the Soviet Armed Forces. However, the initial arrangement of Belarusian military independence from Russia remained uncertain, with the former Soviet command structure remaining in place as the United Armed Forces of the Commonwealth of Independent States until 15 June 1993.

Upon his election as President of Belarus, Lukashenko began the implementation of military reforms. The eastward expansion of NATO caused a shift in Belarusian defensive policy to be primarily anti-NATO and pro-Russian. This climate, in addition to increasing moves towards the unification of Belarus and Russia, led to Russia playing a greater military role in Belarus.

On 6 January 1995, the governments of Belarus and Russia signed a series of agreements which provided for the leasing of military installations in Vileyka and Baranavichy to the Russian Armed Forces for a 25-year period (renewed in 2021). An additional agreement on 21 February 1995 established provisions for mutual border protection and the protection of Belarusian or Russian sovereignty, effectively bringing the Russian Armed Forces to Lithuania and Poland's eastern border.

Since 1999, the Russian and Belarusian militaries have also conducted joint military exercises on Belarusian territory. Beginning with the Zapad 1999 exercise, Belarus and Russia have held military exercises every two years, alternating between their respective territories. These exercises have at times reflected the Belarusian government's opponents, with Belarusian concerns about the Polish minority being reflected in Zapad 2009 and about the Belarusian opposition in the Zapad 2017 exercise with the existence of fictional states.

In 2020, following the beginning of the Belarusian protests, Lukashenko publicly requested assistance from Russia, stating that Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, and Ukraine were ordering Belarus to hold new elections. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced he was willing to dispatch the Russian military to support Lukashenko, noting provisions within the 1995 agreements. On 14 September 2020, following negotiations between the Belarusian and Russian governments, Russia's troop presence in Belarus was expanded, with undisclosed units of the Russian military being sent to places of permanent deployment within Belarus as "reserves".

Lukashenko has also allowed Russia to use Belarus as a staging ground for its invasion of Ukraine, with Russian forces in Belarus launching the Kyiv offensive. However, Belarusian sabotage of rail connections between the two countries ultimately contributed to the failure of this offensive.

Lukashenko's rule has been characterised as authoritarian, with international monitors not regarding Belarusian elections as free and fair, except for his initial win. The government suppresses opponents and limits media freedom, resulting in multiple Western governments imposing sanctions on Lukashenko and other Belarusian officials. Lukashenko's contested victory in the 2020 presidential election, amid allegations of vote-rigging, led to the United Kingdom, the European Union, and the United States refusing to recognise him as the legitimate president of Belarus.

Lukashenko's isolation from parts of the West has increased his dependence on Russia, with whom he has maintained close ties. This has been particularly evident following the rise to power of Vladimir Putin, who replaced the reformist president Boris Yeltsin. Lukashenko played a crucial role in creating the Union State of Russia and Belarus, enabling Belarusians and Russians to travel, work, and study freely between the two countries.

Lukashenko's supporters argue that his rule has spared Belarus the turmoil experienced by other former Soviet countries. However, critics use the term "Lukashism" to refer to the authoritarian ideology based on a cult of his personality and nostalgia for Soviet times among certain groups in Belarus.

Russian military presence in Belarus and the erosion of Belarusian sovereignty

The Russian military presence in Belarus has been a source of concern for neighbouring countries and has been viewed as an erosion of Belarusian sovereignty. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Russian military presence in Belarus has increased significantly, with Russia currently maintaining two military bases in the country. This presence has been utilised in suppressing domestic opposition, with Russia accused of supplying weapons and equipment to assist in the crackdown on the 2020-2021 Belarusian protests.

Following his victory in the 1994 Belarusian presidential election, Alexander Lukashenko pursued a policy of military integration with Russia, resulting in a series of agreements that provided Russia with military bases and a role in guarding the Belarusian border. This integration has been furthered through joint military exercises, with Russia conducting drills on Belarusian territory since 1999.

In October 2022, Lukashenko announced the deployment of a regional group of forces comprising Russian and Belarusian troops, citing NATO provocations and the threat of Ukrainian attacks. This deployment was seen as a potential prelude to a renewed offensive on Kyiv, raising concerns among neighbouring countries. Despite assurances that the unit would not fight in Ukraine, the true nature and intent of these manoeuvres remain uncertain.

The erosion of Belarusian sovereignty is evident in the increasing influence of Russia on Belarus's domestic and foreign policies. Lukashenko's regime has become increasingly reliant on Moscow for economic and political support, with Russia serving as the main sponsor and guarantor of his rule. This has resulted in Belarus adopting policies that align with Russian interests, including participating in hybrid attacks against the West and adopting Russian conservative values and propaganda.

Additionally, Belarus has abandoned its neutrality and permitted the stationing of foreign troops and nuclear weapons on its territory, providing Russia with a permanent military presence. The presence of nuclear weapons in Belarus has been widely condemned, including by Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The Belarusian regime's securitisation and militarisation, coupled with its economic and political dependence on Russia, have accelerated the country's de-sovereignisation. The West's inability or unwillingness to engage in geopolitical competition with Russia has allowed this process to continue unchecked. As a result, Belarus's future remains uncertain, with its trajectory largely dependent on the outcome of the war in Ukraine.

Russian troops in Belarus and the threat of a second attack on Kyiv

The Russian military presence in Belarus has been a cause for concern for many, given the country's proximity to Ukraine and the role it played in the early stages of the Russian invasion. Russia currently maintains two military bases in Belarus and has been accused of assisting in the crackdown on the 2020-2021 Belarusian protests by supplying weapons and equipment to the government.

In the lead-up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Belarus served as a staging ground for Russian forces, with thousands of troops stationed in the country. This raised fears among Ukraine and its allies that Russia was planning to open a new front in the war. However, officials and analysts have cast doubt on the likelihood of a successful Russian offensive from Belarus, given the Russian military's struggles in eastern and southern Ukraine.

While Russia and Belarus have both downplayed the threat posed by the troop buildup, it is unclear what their true intentions are. Some speculate that the Russian troops in Belarus could be used to disrupt the flow of Western weapons into Ukraine or to launch another attack on Kyiv. Others suggest that the troops are primarily intended for training purposes or to put pressure on Ukraine by feigning an imminent attack.

Since the initial invasion, Belarus has allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory and has supported Russia's attacks on Ukraine. However, there is opposition to Belarusian involvement in the conflict within Belarus, with protests and acts of sabotage disrupting the movement of Russian military equipment and trains.

The presence of Russian troops in Belarus and the uncertainty surrounding their intentions continue to be a source of tension and a potential threat to Ukraine. The possibility of a second attack on Kyiv cannot be ruled out, but it is difficult to assess the likelihood without knowledge of the number of troops and their positioning within Belarus.

The situation is further complicated by the stationing of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, which has been widely condemned and perceived as a threat to regional security. The erosion of Belarusian sovereignty and the increasing integration of its military with Russia are key features of the evolving regional security landscape.

Belarusian public opinion on the country's participation in the war

Public opinion in Belarus regarding the country's participation in the war in Ukraine is complex and multifaceted. On the one hand, there is a clear demand among Belarusians to stay out of the hostilities, with a strong pacifist sentiment prevailing in the country. This sentiment has helped the authorities, led by President Alexander Lukashenko, to regain some public support lost since the 2020 political crisis. Opinion polls indicate that a majority of Belarusians oppose the use of Belarusian territory and infrastructure for the war in Ukraine and overwhelmingly reject the idea of the Belarusian army's involvement. This stance is driven by a fear of war, which is understandable given Belarus's history of armed conflicts and its geographical location between Russia and the West.

However, when it comes to assessing the actions of Russia and the presence of Russian troops in Belarus, Belarusian society is deeply polarised. This polarisation stems from the 2020 political crisis, where Russia backed Lukashenko while opposition leaders received Western support. As a result, the internal political split gradually spilled over into geopolitical orientation and attitudes towards Moscow and Western capitals. The closure of popular non-state media outlets further solidified information bubbles, leading to the radicalisation of two camps: ardent supporters and opponents of Lukashenko.

Opinion polls show a correlation between respondents' media consumption and their views on the war. Those who watch Russian and Belarusian TV channels tend to support the Russian narrative, while consumers of non-state online media condemn the Russian invasion and the presence of Russian troops. Overall, there is a negative attitude among Belarusians towards the possible participation of their country's army in the war, with only a small minority expressing support. This sentiment is influenced by the fear of war and the priority Belarusians place on security and stability.

The Belarusian opposition, led by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, has condemned the country's role in the war and accused Lukashenko of endangering the country's sovereignty. However, the opposition faces challenges in reaching a broader audience due to the cleansing of independent media within Belarus. Lukashenko, on the other hand, has carefully crafted a pacific message for his domestic audience, opposing the war and promising not to send Belarusian soldiers to the battlefield. This messaging appears to have been effective, as recent polls indicate an increase in his approval ratings.

In summary, Belarusian public opinion on the country's participation in the war is characterised by a strong desire for peace and a rejection of direct military involvement. While society is polarised along geopolitical lines, there is a widespread intolerance for war, which has contributed to Lukashenko's ability to maintain support and partially recover from the losses incurred during the 2020 political crisis.

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