Belarus: Revolution's Spark Or A Distant Dream?

Belarus has been ruled by Alexander Lukashenko since 1994, earning him the nickname Europe's last dictator. In August 2020, mass protests erupted across the country in response to a rigged presidential election, which was officially won by Lukashenko. This was the largest anti-government protest in the history of Belarus, with demonstrations intensifying after the official election results were announced on 9 August. Lukashenko's regime has been characterised by political and economic instability, with a majority of Belarusians wanting him gone. However, the revolution has stalled due to several factors, including large-scale repression by the government, the failure of the democratic movement to galvanise a wide range of dissatisfied citizens, and the position of international actors who perceive maintaining the status quo as less risky than engaging with the Belarus crisis. Despite the protests, Lukashenko was inaugurated for another five-year term, prompting the EU to reject the legitimacy of the election and call for new elections. The future of Belarus remains uncertain, with ongoing debates about the potential for a successful revolution and the role of external factors, particularly Russia, in influencing the country's political landscape.

The role of Russia

Russia has played a significant role in the political situation in Belarus, especially in relation to the country's leader, Alexander Lukashenko. Moscow has been a close ally of Lukashenko, seeing Belarus as a buffer against NATO and a vital export corridor for its oil. In 2020, mass protests erupted in Belarus following a rigged presidential election, posing a significant threat to Lukashenko's 26-year rule. The Kremlin's backing became vital for his chances of extending his rule, and Russia provided both political and financial support to prop up his regime.

Russia has accused the US and other Western countries of trying to foment a revolution in Belarus and overthrow Lukashenko. Sergei Naryshkin, the head of Russia's SVR Foreign Intelligence Service, accused Washington of funding anti-government bloggers, training activists through NGOs, and backing opposition leaders like Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. Russia's support for Lukashenko belies an awkward personal relationship between Putin and Lukashenko, who has played Russia off against the West for political gain.

Despite the support from Russia, Lukashenko's regime has faced significant challenges. A majority of Belarusians want him gone, and the country has witnessed widespread protests and demonstrations. Lukashenko has responded with large-scale repression, including killing protesters, putting them in prison, and imposing fines and arrests for those expressing dissent. However, the democratic movement in Belarus has struggled to galvanize the full spectrum of dissatisfied Belarusians, and the revolution has stalled.

The position of international actors, particularly their reluctance to antagonize Russia, has also contributed to the stalemate. Policymakers fear that strong sanctions against Lukashenko would only push him closer to Russia, and the Kremlin is hesitant to put pressure on Lukashenko due to the lack of a better alternative. As a result, Lukashenko does not fear international pressure, and sanctions and efforts to stop repressions in Belarus have been modest.

In conclusion, Russia's role in Belarus has been complex. While Russia has provided crucial support for Lukashenko, enabling his regime to withstand the revolution, it has also been accused of promoting Lukashenko's authoritarian rule and suppressing the democratic aspirations of the Belarusian people. The future of Belarus remains uncertain, but Russia's influence will likely continue to be a key factor in the country's political landscape.

The impact of international actors

The outcome of the Belarusian revolution is crucial for the security of Russia's European neighbours and engages the interests of the members of the European Union and NATO, including the US. Belarus is located at the meeting point of the West and the post-imperial sphere of influence of Russia. The country's future is, therefore, important for the preservation or collapse of a Russian neo-imperial agenda.

Russia continues to support Lukashenko politically, although it can no longer do so financially. Policymakers do not want to antagonise Russia, and fear that sanctions against Lukashenko will only make him more likely to align with Russia. As a result, international pressure on Lukashenko has been modest at best. The Kremlin is interested in a smooth transfer of power to a Russia-friendly alternative but is hesitant to put pressure on Lukashenko as it does not currently see a better alternative.

Germany and France, the major powers of the EU, have secondary interests in Belarus. Germany is linked with Russia by a shared network of interests, including the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. France, with its traditional anti-American attitude, looks to Russia as a counterbalance to US influence.

Poland and the Baltic states, especially Lithuania, have been the most reactive to the situation in Belarus. Poland has pushed through its projects in the EU, demonstrating its ability to do so and signalling to Belarusians that they are not alone and can count on support from the West.

The US has refrained from taking steps that might cost it support in the run-up to the presidential election. Unless Russia strikes US interests, the US reaction will remain verbal and symbolic.

The ineffectiveness of the democratic movement

Internal Divisions

The democratic movement in Belarus faces challenges due to internal divisions among its leaders and supporters. Some leaders have advocated for a firm stance, calling for increased sanctions and pressure on the regime. However, there are also voices within the movement that favour a more flexible approach, including negotiations and easing sanctions. This division raises questions about the sincerity and commitment of certain opposition members.

Lack of International Support

The response from the international community has been lukewarm, with many of President Lukashenko's worst excesses going unpunished. The West, in particular, has yet to offer an adequate response to the authoritarian surge in Belarus. This has emboldened Lukashenko and allowed him to expand his crackdown on dissent. The only notable international support has come from Russia, which has propped up the Lukashenko regime and intervened to prevent its collapse.

Resilience of the Ruling Regime

President Lukashenko has proven resilient, maintaining control through large-scale repression and violence against protesters. He has kept the ruling class united and involved them in his attempts to remain in power. Additionally, the security services are prepared to go to great lengths to ensure their own survival, which is tied to Lukashenko remaining in power. The regime has also been able to withstand protests due to the democratic movement's inability to galvanize a broad spectrum of dissatisfied citizens. A significant portion of the population, particularly those who are more passive observers, do not fully identify with the protest movement and are unsure of its leaders and their interests.

Geopolitical Constraints

Belarus's complex relationship with Russia adds another layer of difficulty for the democratic movement. Any steps towards democracy or concessions by the Belarusian government risk upsetting Moscow, given its interest in keeping Belarus within its sphere of influence. This geopolitical dynamic restricts international efforts to support democratic change in the country.

In conclusion, the ineffectiveness of the democratic movement in Belarus can be attributed to internal divisions, a lack of robust international support, the resilience of the Lukashenko regime, and the geopolitical constraints imposed by Russia's influence. These factors have hindered the movement's ability to bring about significant change and led to a stalemate in the country's political situation.

The regime's use of repression

Leaked audio recordings revealed Belarusian security agents discussing plans to murder opposition activists and create prison camps for dissidents. The regime has also targeted journalists, with several independent journalists arrested, beaten, and injured by rubber bullets during the suppression of the protests.

The human rights group Viasna estimated that around 1,300 people had been detained for protesting between early May and early August 2020. The United Nations Human Rights Office cited more than 450 documented cases of torture, ill-treatment, sexual abuse, and rape of detainees. At the end of 2020, the Viasna Human Rights Centre documented 1,000 testimonies of torture victims.

The regime's violent response to the protests has resulted in international condemnation and sanctions. The European Union (EU) rejected the legitimacy of the 2020 election, called for new elections, and condemned the repression and violence against protesters. The EU has since imposed sanctions on Belarusian officials, including Lukashenko, and diverted funding away from the government towards civil society and victims of state violence.

Despite international pressure, Lukashenko remains in power, supported by Russia, which has a vested interest in maintaining influence in Belarus. Lukashenko's regime has been able to withstand the protests due to several factors. Firstly, Lukashenko has kept the ruling class and security services united, with their survival hinging on his continued rule. Secondly, the democratic movement has failed to galvanize a broad spectrum of dissatisfied Belarusians, with a significant portion of the population remaining passive observers. Finally, international actors have largely perceived maintaining the status quo as less risky than engaging with the Belarus crisis, fearing antagonizing Russia.

The future of Alexander Lukashenko

Alexander Lukashenko, the current president of Belarus, is the longest-serving head of state in Europe, having been in power since 1994. Lukashenko's future looks bleak, with a majority of Belarusians wanting him gone. However, his regime has proven difficult to depose, and the revolution feels stalled. Here is an analysis of Lukashenko's future:

Maintaining Control

Lukashenko has maintained control through large-scale repression, with reports of widespread government killing of protesters, imprisonment, and lower-level fines and arrests for those expressing dissent. His regime has united the ruling class and security services, whose survival hinges on Lukashenko remaining in power. The democratic movement in Belarus has failed to galvanize the full spectrum of dissatisfied people, and international actors have largely perceived maintaining the status quo as less risky than engaging in the Belarus crisis, which has allowed Lukashenko to hold on to power.

Economic Policies

Lukashenko's early economic policies aimed to prevent the issues that occurred in other post-Soviet states, such as mass unemployment and the establishment of oligarchic structures. He maintained state ownership of key industries, which spared Belarus from recessions as devastating as those in other post-Soviet states. However, this has resulted in increased dependence on Russia, as Belarus imports Russian crude oil at below-market prices, refines it, and sells it to other European countries at a profit.

Relationship with Russia

Lukashenko's relationship with Russia, once his powerful ally, has significantly deteriorated in recent years. Russia cut economic subsidies for Belarus, and there have been tensions over the arrest of Russian military contractors and the presence of Russian private military firms in Belarus. Despite this, Lukashenko has continued to depend on Russia, and his isolation from parts of the West has further increased this reliance.

International Sanctions and Criticism

Lukashenko has been labeled "Europe's last dictator" by the media, and his regime has been criticized for suppressing opponents and limiting media freedom. As a result, multiple Western governments, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the European Union, have imposed sanctions on Lukashenko and other Belarusian officials. Lukashenko's contested victory in the 2020 presidential election, amid allegations of vote-rigging, led to mass protests and further international condemnation.

COVID-19 Response

Lukashenko's response to the COVID-19 pandemic drew criticism, as he downplayed the severity of the virus, suggesting that working in tractors, drinking vodka, and going to saunas could prevent infection. Belarus ended up with one of the highest per capita rates of infection in Eastern Europe.

Future Prospects

Lukashenko's future remains uncertain. While he has managed to maintain his grip on power, the ongoing protests and international sanctions continue to pose a threat to his regime. His increasing isolation from the West and deteriorating relationship with Russia may further weaken his position. However, his ability to withstand the protests and the lack of a unified opposition movement have allowed him to remain in power thus far.

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