Belarus-Ukraine Relations: Complexities And Challenges Amidst Conflict

Belarus and Ukraine share a border and have historically been closely linked, both having been part of Kievan Rus' (9th to 13th centuries CE), the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth (1569-1795), the Russian Empire (1721-1917), and the Soviet Union (1922-1991). Both countries are predominantly inhabited by East Slavic ethnic groups and share closely related cultures. However, the relationship between the two countries has deteriorated in recent years, particularly following the 2020 Belarusian protests against President Alexander Lukashenko, and Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which was launched in part from Belarus. While Belarus has denied the presence of its troops in Ukraine, it has supported Russia by allowing the stationing of Russian troops and equipment on its territory and has become the target of sanctions from Western countries. Public opinion in Belarus is divided, with some supporting the Russian narrative and others opposing the war and expressing solidarity with Ukraine.

Belarus's involvement in the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Belarus has been a close ally of Russia and supported its neighbour in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the lead-up to the invasion, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to conduct military drills on its territory. However, the Russian troops did not leave the country as agreed and instead used Belarus as a base to launch their invasion of Ukraine, providing the shortest land route to Kyiv. Belarus has also allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory, targeting Ukraine.

While Belarus has denied sending its own troops to fight in Ukraine, there have been several reports from the Belarusian opposition and the Ukrainian military of Belarusian troops fighting alongside Russians. Belarus has also been accused of participating in war crimes, including the forced transfer of Ukrainian children to Belarus and their detention in recreational camps.

The involvement of Belarus in the conflict has been condemned internationally, with the EU, US, UK, Canada, and Japan imposing sanctions. Belarus's participation in the conflict is unpopular among its citizens, with protests held and hackers targeting government agencies and critical infrastructure.

In July 2024, Lukashenko described Ukraine as an "enemy", and in August 2024, Belarus announced the transfer of additional military equipment and forces to the border with Ukraine, including missile launchers, special forces, and air defence systems. This has led to warnings from NATO, US, and Ukrainian officials that Belarus may be preparing to enter the war directly.

While Belarus has denied direct involvement of its armed forces, its territory has been crucial for Russia's invasion, and the two countries have continued to cooperate militarily, including the potential stationing of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus.

Public opinion in Belarus

A survey by Chatham House found that 79% of Belarusians disapprove of the possible deployment of Belarusian soldiers in the Ukraine war, with 59% speaking against the involvement of contract soldiers and 74% expressing a negative attitude towards any Belarusian participation in the conflict. The survey also revealed that 33% supported Russian actions, 25% favoured complete neutrality, and 20% supported Ukraine. These findings suggest that a significant portion of the Belarusian population opposes their country's involvement in the conflict and prefers neutrality or support for Ukraine.

Online discussions and testimonials provide additional insights into the diverse perspectives within Belarus. Some Belarusians strongly oppose the war and view Russia as an occupant attempting to rebuild its empire. They see Putin as a common enemy and wish to support Ukraine in any way possible. Others adopt a more neutral stance, empathising with the victims of the war and desiring peace without taking a clear political stand. A smaller group supports Russia and Lukashenko, often influenced by pro-Russian propaganda and media. This group includes retirees and individuals with a strong connection to Russia.

The Belarusian opposition, led by figures such as Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and Pavel Latushka, has actively condemned the war and called for sanctions against Lukashenko similar to those imposed on Putin. They argue that Belarus is a territory temporarily occupied by Russia, as the regime has lost its independence in decision-making. Prominent Belarusians, including journalists, writers, athletes, and celebrities, have joined the opposition in speaking out against the war and expressing solidarity with Ukraine.

Additionally, Belarusian activists have engaged in acts of sabotage and disrupted the work of the Belarusian Railway to hinder the transport of Russian military equipment. These actions reflect a strong anti-war sentiment within a segment of the Belarusian population, despite the tight security measures imposed by the Lukashenko regime.

It is important to note that reliable polling data in Belarus is limited, and the dynamics of public opinion may be influenced by factors such as education, age, and geographic location. However, it is clear that the Belarusian public's attitude towards the war in Ukraine is nuanced and multifaceted, with a significant portion opposing their country's involvement and expressing solidarity with Ukraine.

Belarus-Ukraine relations

Belarus and Ukraine have historically had a close relationship, with both countries being full members of the Baku Initiative and Central European Initiative. They share an 891km border and have historically been part of the Kievan Rus, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, and the Russian Empire. Both countries were also part of the Soviet Union and became founding members of the United Nations in 1945.

However, in recent years, the relationship between the two countries has deteriorated significantly. In 2020, during the Belarusian protests against President Lukashenko, Ukraine recalled its ambassador to Belarus and criticised Lukashenko's government. In 2021, Ukraine banned Belarusian airlines from its airspace, and Belarus imposed new trade barriers on Ukrainian goods in response.

The biggest blow to the relationship between the two countries came in February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, with troops entering Ukraine via Belarus. Belarus has allowed Russian troops and equipment to be stationed on its territory and has supported Russia's invasion. This has led to Ukraine freezing diplomatic relations with Belarus, although it has not broken them off entirely.

The Belarusian regime, led by President Lukashenko, has been condemned internationally for its support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and several countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union, have imposed sanctions on Belarus. Despite Lukashenko's assurances that Belarusian troops would not participate directly in the conflict, there have been reports of Belarusian troops fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine.

Public opinion in Belarus towards the war is divided, with some supporting the Russian narrative and others opposing the war and participating in anti-war protests. There have also been reports of Belarusian volunteers fighting alongside Ukrainian forces. The war has cast a shadow over the Belarusian people, with reports of sudden mistrust and ostracization by Ukrainian and Polish border guards and the Ukrainian population.

Belarusian opposition to the invasion

The Belarusian opposition to the invasion of Ukraine has been significant, with many Belarusians actively protesting against their country's involvement in the conflict. Public opinion in Belarus is largely against the war, with a survey by Chatham House finding that 79% of Belarusians consider the death of Belarusian soldiers in the war to be unacceptable, and more than 50% believing that Belarus should remain neutral.

The Belarusian government's actions have been condemned by opposition leaders such as Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who expressed her belief that "Ukraine will win this war" and suggested that President Alexander Lukashenko is no longer in control of the Belarusian military. Tsikhanouskaya has urged Belarusian soldiers to disobey orders to join the war on Russia's side, stating that any such orders would be criminal and that commanders would be prosecuted by military tribunals. Another opposition leader, Pavel Latushka, called for similar sanctions against Lukashenko as those imposed on Putin, stating that "rockets were also fired at Ukraine from the territory of Belarus, and Lukashenko is the same aggressor as Putin".

Belarusian journalists have also been vocal in their opposition to the invasion, with some claiming that the Belarusian government's actions could be considered aggression under the United Nations General Assembly Resolution 3314. Nobel Laureate Svetlana Alexievich called Lukashenko's actions a 'crime', and Belarusian writer Alhierd Bacharevič declared that "we have the same enemy: the Belarusians, the Ukrainians, the Lithuanians, and even the Russians. And this enemy is Putin's empire, Putinism, Putin's fascism!".

In addition to vocal opposition, there have also been acts of sabotage and disruption of Russian military operations in Belarus. Belarusian activists have targeted the country's railway system, which is used to transport Russian military equipment and troops. There have been numerous acts of sabotage, including fires set to signalling equipment and railroad switches, resulting in reduced train speeds. Belarusian hackers have also targeted government agencies and critical infrastructure, aiming to disrupt the Russian war effort.

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Belarusian volunteers have also joined the Ukrainian Armed Forces, with reports indicating that around 450 Belarusians are fighting for Ukraine as of July 2023. These volunteers have formed battalions such as the Pahonia Regiment and the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment, which later transformed into a regiment consisting of two battalions, a UAV unit, and a medical company. Belarusian volunteers are one of the largest foreign military groups fighting alongside Ukraine.

The Belarusian opposition's efforts have been crucial in countering the domestic disinformation campaigns of the Lukashenko regime and raising international awareness about the situation in Belarus. The democratic opposition, led by figures such as Tsikhanouskaya, has been working to rally international support for political change in Belarus and draw attention to the growing Russian control over the country.

The impact of the war on Belarusians

The war in Ukraine has had a significant impact on Belarus and its people. Belarus, a close ally of Russia, has supported its eastern neighbour in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Belarus allowed Russia to station troops and equipment on its territory and launch attacks on Ukraine, becoming the target of international sanctions. The Belarusian regime, led by President Alexander Lukashenko, has faced widespread condemnation for its role in the war, with many viewing it as a betrayal of Ukraine, a fellow Slavic nation with which Belarus shares close cultural ties.

The decision to support Russia in the war has been unpopular among the general Belarusian population, with polls indicating strong opposition to the potential deployment of Belarusian soldiers in Ukraine. Protests against the war have been held in Belarus, despite tight security measures and the risk of reprisals from the government. Belarusians have also engaged in acts of sabotage, targeting the country's railway system to disrupt the movement of Russian military equipment.

The war has led to a deterioration in relations between Belarus and Ukraine, with Ukraine closing border checkpoints and imposing trade barriers. There have been reports of sudden mistrust and ostracization of Belarusians by Ukrainian and Polish border guards, as well as the Ukrainian population. The war has also impacted Belarus's relations with the West, with the European Union, the United States, and other countries imposing sanctions on the country.

The involvement in the war has raised concerns about Belarus's sovereignty and independence. By aligning closely with Russia, Belarus has become increasingly dependent on Russia for trade, finance, and political support. There are fears that Belarus is at risk of being absorbed by Russia, with the presence of Russian troops and military cooperation between the two countries further fueling these concerns.

The war has also had economic consequences for Belarus. Small and medium-sized businesses in the country are facing challenges due to the conflict, and international sanctions have impacted trade with the West. Additionally, Belarus has become a target of cyberattacks, with hackers targeting government agencies and critical infrastructure.

Overall, the war in Ukraine has had far-reaching impacts on Belarus and its citizens. The country's support for Russia has led to international condemnation, sanctions, and strained relations with neighbouring countries. The conflict has also raised questions about Belarus's sovereignty and economic stability, while acts of protest and sabotage within Belarus demonstrate the strong opposition of the Belarusian people to the war.

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