Russia's Belarus Annexation: Geopolitical Fallout And Implications

The potential annexation of Belarus by Russia has been a topic of discussion and concern for several years, with some speculating that Russia intends to gradually absorb Belarus by 2030. This has raised questions about the future of Belarusian sovereignty and the potential consequences for the region's stability and security. In 2024, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko warned that any attempt by Russia to annex Belarus would lead to war, stating that Belarus must remain a sovereign state. Lukashenko's comments come amidst increasing Russian influence in Belarus, with the country already heavily dependent on Russia economically and militarily.

Lukashenko warns of war if Russia attempts to annex Belarus

In an interview with the Russian newspaper Izvestia, the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, warned that any attempt by Russia to annex Belarus would lead to war. Lukashenko asserted that Belarus must remain a sovereign state, and that the idea of Belarus joining Russia is "out of the question", "impossible", and "unfeasible". He emphasised that the world has moved on from the Middle Ages, where conquering territories was more straightforward, and that modern leaders should be thoughtful about their actions and their consequences.

Lukashenko's comments come amid concerns about Russia's intentions towards Belarus. In February 2023, an internal Russian document was leaked to the press, outlining the country's strategic goals with regard to Belarus. The document suggested a plan for the gradual absorption of Belarus into Russia, with a unification process completed by 2030. This proposal goes beyond the current Union State agreement between the two countries, which was established in 1999 and includes a customs union and free trade zone.

Lukashenko's stance on maintaining Belarusian sovereignty marks a shift from his previous push for integration with Russia in the late 1990s. Since then, he has skillfully navigated his relationship with Russia, extracting benefits for Belarus while maintaining a degree of independence. However, his recent comments reflect a tension between the two countries, particularly as Lukashenko aided Russia in invading parts of Ukraine in 2022.

While Lukashenko expressed confidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin would not attempt to annex Belarus, he warned that any such move would be met with resistance from the Belarusian people. He emphasised the importance of respecting borders and the folly of setting unrealistic goals in the modern world. Lukashenko's declaration highlights the complex dynamics between Belarus and Russia, and the potential for conflict should Russia seek to infringe upon Belarusian sovereignty.

The potential annexation of Belarus by Russia has been a subject of discussion and speculation, with some arguing that Russia already has much of what it wants from Belarus without needing to invade. Russia benefits from the free flow of goods and energy, the use of Belarusian territory as a staging ground, and the adoption of the Russian language as the main spoken language in Belarus. However, the leaked document suggests that Russia may have long-term plans for the gradual absorption of Belarus, indicating a potential shift in their approach.

Russia already has significant control over Belarus

Russia has also been able to use Belarus as a staging ground for the invasion of Ukraine, which has resulted in Belarus facing many of the same sanctions as Russia, despite not having troops in Ukraine. Russia has also left tactical nukes in Belarus.

Since the disputed 2020 Belarusian presidential election, Belarus has become increasingly indebted to and dependent on Russia for support. This has resulted in greater Russian political, economic, and military control. Russia's influence over Belarus has been described as a "gradual annexation" and a "gradual takeover".

The erosion of Belarusian sovereignty has consequences for the stability and security of the region. As Russia tightens its grip on Belarus, the international community must confront the changing geopolitical landscape and the potential for further destabilization.

The annexation of Belarus would impact global security

The annexation of Belarus by Russia would have a significant impact on global security. Belarus's president, Alexander Lukashenko, has threatened war if Russia attempts to annex his country, stating that such a move would be "impossible and unrealistic" and akin to "seizing a territory in the Middle Ages". Despite this, there are signs that Russia is working towards the gradual absorption of Belarus, with a leaked document outlining Russia's strategic goals for the country, including its unification with Russia by 2030. This has already been happening since the disputed 2020 Belarusian presidential election, with Lukashenko making concessions that have allowed greater Russian political, economic, and military control.

The erosion of Belarusian sovereignty has far-reaching consequences for the Belarusian people and the stability and security of the region. As Russia tightens its grip, the international community must confront a changing geopolitical landscape and the potential for further destabilization. A panel hosted by the Davis Center at Harvard University explored the impact of the Russian takeover on global security, regional stability, and the lives of Belarusians. The panel also assessed the international community's response to the crisis, including NATO's position and shifting power dynamics within Europe.

Russia's expansionist agenda and its increasing influence over Belarus have raised concerns among its neighbours and the wider international community. The potential for conflict between Russia and Belarus, as suggested by Lukashenko's warnings, could further escalate tensions in the region and have unpredictable consequences for global security. The impact of such a conflict would be felt beyond the borders of Belarus and Russia, potentially drawing in other countries and destabilizing the region.

Additionally, the annexation of Belarus would provide Russia with greater military and strategic capabilities. Belarus shares borders with several NATO members, including Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, which could increase tensions and the risk of military confrontation between Russia and NATO. Russia's proximity to these countries and its potential control over Belarusian military assets pose a direct threat to European security and stability.

The annexation of Belarus would also impact global security by shifting the balance of power in Europe. Russia would gain influence in the region, potentially at the expense of the European Union and NATO. This could lead to a realignment of alliances and a reevaluation of security strategies, as countries seek to counter Russia's growing influence and protect their interests.

Russia's influence over Belarus has been increasing since 2020

• Constitutional Reform: Russia has pushed for constitutional reform in Belarus as a way to resolve the political crisis. While both Lukashenko and Russia initially proposed constitutional reform, their visions differ significantly. Russia seeks to weaken Lukashenko's absolute power and establish a system more favourable to Moscow.
• Diversification of Allies: Russia has worked to diversify its allies within Belarus, building relationships with various figures and organisations. By doing so, they aim to break Lukashenko's monopoly on decision-making and reduce his influence.
• Economic Presence: Russia aims to deepen its economic presence in Belarus, particularly by acquiring large state-owned enterprises. The shrinking Belarusian economy and lack of credit resources make the Russian oligarchy an attractive source of foreign exchange for the Belarusian government.
• Media, Culture, and Education: Russia is working to increase its influence in these spheres as well. They aim to shape a Russia-focused identity, culture, and worldview among Belarusians.
• Military Cooperation: Belarus and Russia have close military ties and regularly engage in joint military drills. Russia also operates several military bases and radars in Belarus.
• Energy Sector: Belarus is highly dependent on Russian oil and gas, which Moscow can use as leverage in negotiations. Russia supplies discounted oil and gas, which Belarus relies on to sustain its economy.
• Information and Propaganda: Russian media and social media networks are popular in Belarus and are used to disseminate pro-Kremlin, anti-Western propaganda. This has been an influential tool for Russia to shape public opinion in Belarus.
• Political Parties: Russia is working to create a stable infrastructure of political influence by building a network of pro-Russian parties and public associations. These parties may become parliamentary forces and play a significant role in regional governance, further cementing Russia's influence.

Belarus is important to Russia's invasion of Ukraine

Secondly, Belarus allowed Russia to stage part of its invasion from its territory, providing Russia with the shortest possible land route to Kyiv. Over the winter, more than 30,000 Russian troops gathered in Belarus under the guise of joint training exercises. Instead of returning home after the exercises ended, these troops invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, attacking from the north.

Thirdly, Belarus has also provided Russia with access to its military airbases and army installations, enabling Russia to launch aircraft, artillery, and missile attacks on Ukraine. Russian missiles have been launched from Belarus, and Russian soldiers wounded in Ukraine have been evacuated to hospitals in Belarus.

Additionally, Belarus has served as a crucial supplier of military hardware, munitions, and military components to Russia. It has also participated in Russia's psychological and informational operations that precede new phases in the war. For example, leaked Pentagon documents revealed Russian efforts in early 2023 to create the impression among Ukrainian intelligence of a potential second offensive originating from Belarus.

Lastly, Belarus has supported Russia diplomatically, hosting Russo-Ukrainian talks on its border in the early days of the invasion. However, despite some preliminary agreements, these talks did not result in a lasting ceasefire.

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