Belarus Lockdown: Navigating Restrictions And Impact

Belarus has been one of the only countries to not impose a nationwide lockdown during the coronavirus pandemic. Instead, the government has relied on recommendations such as not travelling abroad, avoiding public events, and frequent hand-washing. The country's leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has dismissed the threat of coronavirus, suggesting remedies such as vodka, saunas, and driving tractors. Despite criticism from the press and population, as well as calls for a nationwide quarantine, Belarus has maintained its unorthodox approach to the pandemic.

Lukashenko's unorthodox response to the pandemic

Belarus has been one of the only countries to not impose a nationwide lockdown during the coronavirus pandemic, with President Alexander Lukashenko dismissing concerns about the virus. Instead, the country has taken an unorthodox approach to the pandemic.

On 16 March 2020, Lukashenko downplayed the threat of coronavirus, encouraging people to continue working, especially in the fields, where he claimed "the tractor will heal everyone". He also referred to the pandemic as “psychosis” and, on 28 March, stated that "it is better to die on our feet, than live on your knees [...] sport, especially on ice, is better than any antiviral medication, it is the real thing". Lukashenko also proposed "poisoning" the coronavirus with vodka and attending banyas (steam baths) as cures for the disease.

Despite the World Health Organization's (WHO) recommendations for physical distancing, Belarus kept its borders, schools, universities, theatres, and cafes open. The country also went ahead with its national football championship, the only one in Europe to do so. Lukashenko claimed that closing the borders would be pointless, arguing that spot controls were more effective and that the number of infected individuals in the country was not growing exponentially.

The Belarusian government's response to the pandemic was not solely driven by medical reasons. The country's fragile economy, already facing challenges due to the unresolved oil war with Russia, would have been devastated by a lockdown. Small businesses would have gone bankrupt, and the government would have had to make budget cuts and take out new loans. Additionally, with the country's presidential elections approaching, there were clear political considerations in play as well.

Lukashenko's unorthodox approach to the pandemic extended beyond his refusal to implement a lockdown. He authorised the head of the KGB to crack down on those spreading rumours about the first deaths caused by the virus. He also stated that the danger of the virus had been artificially inflated by the media, and the Belarusian government's communication tactics seemed aimed at appeasing the population, with less attention given to coronavirus in state-controlled media broadcasts.

Lukashenko's response to the pandemic drew heavy criticism from civil society actors, student activists, and protest leaders, who called for nationwide quarantine measures. However, as long as the situation in terms of infections, deaths, and hospital bed capacity remained under control, the government's tactics did not spark any major protests.

On 28 July 2020, Lukashenko announced that he had contracted COVID-19 asymptomatically and had recovered. By early May 2021, Belarus was reported to have 15,000 diagnosed cases, one of the highest per capita rates of infection in Eastern Europe.

The country's lack of lockdown

Belarus has been one of the only countries to not impose a nationwide lockdown during the coronavirus pandemic. Instead, the country has relied on a unique set of measures and recommendations to combat the spread of the virus.

No Nationwide Lockdown

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has dismissed the threat of coronavirus, refusing to implement a nationwide lockdown. Lukashenko has proposed unconventional remedies, such as working in the fields, driving tractors, drinking vodka, and visiting saunas as ways to fight the virus. He has also claimed that the pandemic is a "psychosis" and that Belarus does not need to take drastic measures. This approach has been criticised by opposition leaders and civil society actors, who have called for more stringent measures, such as closing schools and implementing quarantines.

Regulatory Measures and Recommendations

While not imposing a lockdown, the Belarusian government has adopted some regulatory measures. These include allowing parents to keep their children home from school, rescheduling university lectures to avoid student crowds on public transport, and requiring individuals returning from abroad to self-isolate for two weeks. The government has also focused on targeted testing of those who have been in contact with infected individuals or exhibit symptoms. Additionally, the country's national bank has advised other banks to offer loan repayment holidays and not restrict foreign currency sales.

Economic and Political Considerations

The decision to avoid a lockdown may be partly due to economic concerns. A lockdown would be costly for small businesses and could lead to a wave of bankruptcies and layoffs. The Belarusian economy is already fragile due to limited oil supplies and a drop in oil exports, causing a decline in the Belarusian rouble. Additionally, the upcoming presidential elections may have influenced Lukashenko's decision, as he seeks to avoid economic collapse and present himself as the advocate of an effective strategy.

Communication Strategy

The Belarusian government's communication tactics have aimed to appease the population. State-controlled media pays less attention to the coronavirus, and the official young people's union has published caricatures mocking those who panic. The government's strategy may be to downplay the threat of the virus and present a sense of control, as most people are unsure of the best response to the pandemic.

The impact on Belarus' economy

Belarus has been one of the only countries to not impose a nationwide lockdown during the coronavirus pandemic. President Alexander Lukashenko has repeatedly dismissed concerns about the virus, suggesting unconventional remedies such as vodka, saunas, and driving tractors as cures for COVID-19. Lukashenko's unorthodox approach has sparked criticism and accusations of downplaying the pandemic's severity.

The impact of the pandemic on the Belarusian economy has been significant. Even before the pandemic, the Belarusian economy faced challenges due to unresolved oil disputes with Russia, resulting in limited oil supplies and a decline in oil exports, which was the primary source of foreign exchange inflow. The situation was further exacerbated by the global economic slowdown and falling demand in neighbouring countries.

The pandemic's effect on the already fragile Belarusian economy included:

• A huge drop in demand for goods and services, causing small businesses to struggle with rent and loan repayments.
• A decline in the Belarusian rouble: the drop in oil prices triggered a rise in the dollar exchange rate, adversely affecting the local currency.
• A recession and drop in real household income: Belarus entered a recession in 2020, and the economic slowdown was expected to worsen due to falling demand in neighbouring countries.
• Budgetary constraints: the government had to make budget cuts and take out new loans to repay existing ones.
• Increased unemployment and bankruptcies: the pandemic's impact, combined with existing economic woes, threatened to engulf the country in a wave of bankruptcies and layoffs.
• Outflow of talent: young Belarusians have been leaving the country in pursuit of better opportunities, leading to a brain drain.
• Impact on the banking sector: the National Bank advised other banks to offer loan repayment holidays and not restrict foreign currency sales.

While Lukashenko's decision to avoid a lockdown may have been motivated by economic concerns, it also carried significant risks. If the situation worsened and the virus spread uncontrollably, the government and the president, as the main advocate of this strategy, would face the outrage and blame of the population, endangering not only the economy but also the government's stability.

The government's communication strategy

The Belarusian government's communication strategy during the COVID-19 pandemic was heavily influenced by the country's political and economic situation, as well as the personal beliefs of President Alexander Lukashenko. While the government did implement some regulatory measures, its overall approach was notably more relaxed compared to other countries.

Downplaying the Threat

Lukashenko consistently downplayed the threat of COVID-19, referring to it as a "psychosis" and suggesting unconventional remedies such as working in the fields, drinking vodka, and visiting saunas. He also authorised the KGB to crack down on those spreading rumours about deaths caused by the virus. This strategy aimed to minimise public fear and panic, with Lukashenko arguing that the media had artificially inflated the danger of the virus.

Appeasing the Population

The government's communication tactics were designed to appease the population and prevent major protests. State-controlled television devoted less airtime to the coronavirus compared to non-state media, and the official Belarusian young people's union (BRSM) published caricatures mocking those who expressed panic. The Ministry of Health also released summary reports that broke down the number of infected individuals into specific groups, which some interpreted as an attempt to obscure the total number of infections.

Economic Concerns

The Belarusian economy was already fragile due to the unresolved oil war with Russia, which had limited oil supplies and adversely affected the country's GDP. Lukashenko believed that imposing a lockdown would be devastating for small businesses and could lead to a wave of bankruptcies and layoffs. With the country's next presidential elections approaching, he decided that halting the economy was too risky, especially since it was not certain that mass quarantine would be effective.

Targeted Measures

Instead of a nationwide lockdown, the Belarusian government focused on targeted measures. Parents could keep their children home from school, and university lectures were rescheduled to avoid crowding on public transport. The government also implemented targeted testing of individuals who had been in contact with infected people or exhibited symptoms. Additionally, all travellers from abroad were required to self-isolate for two weeks.

Border Controls

While Belarus kept its borders open initially, it eventually imposed restrictions. From March 25, 2020, a mandatory 14-day self-quarantine was required for individuals entering the country from affected areas. However, this did not apply to diplomats, air crews, and those transiting through Belarus. On December 20, 2020, Belarus suspended departures from its land borders for citizens and foreign residents, with exceptions for diplomats and certain other cases.

The public's reaction

The public reaction to Belarus's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic has been mixed. On the one hand, many Belarusians have been critical of the government's lack of transparency and inaction in the face of the pandemic. This criticism intensified as the government failed to initiate a nationwide quarantine, leading to accusations of withholding up-to-date information about the territories affected by the virus, decreasing the frequency of updates, and increasing the ambiguity of official reports.

Additionally, the government's decision to keep borders, schools, universities, theatres, and cafes open, as well as allowing the national football championship to continue, sparked outrage among civil society actors, student activists, and opposition leaders. A petition calling for the closure of educational institutions garnered over 16,000 signatures, a significant number by Belarusian standards.

On the other hand, it is important to note that the Belarusian people's trust in their government is generally low. They often view the authorities as having inherited the worst of Soviet traditions when it comes to non-transparency. Furthermore, the collective trauma of the Chernobyl disaster has left many believing that the government is hiding the truth about the pandemic or could start doing so at any moment.

Some Belarusians may also be unsure about the best course of action to combat the virus, as evidenced by the relatively low number of signatures on the petition compared to the country's population. As long as the situation in terms of infection rates, death tolls, and available hospital beds remains under control, the government's tactics are unlikely to spark major protests.

However, if the situation deteriorates and the virus spreads uncontrollably, popular opinion will likely shift towards blaming the government and the president, who has been the main advocate of this unusual approach. Such a failure could spark deeper outrage and more dangerous consequences for the authorities than simple economic discontent.

It is worth noting that Belarus's handling of the pandemic has also impacted cross-border travel. With Belarus being one of the only countries to not impose a nationwide lockdown, its borders became a route for Russians to bypass their country's coronavirus travel restrictions. Additionally, the Belarusian government's decision to close land borders in December 2020 was met with criticism from opposition figures and protesters, who saw it as a way to prevent repressed Belarusians from fleeing the country and seeking asylum abroad.

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