Belarus-Russia Alliance: What's Next For Europe?

Belarus and Russia have historically been closely linked by language and culture, with Belarus having been a Soviet state. However, in recent years, Belarus has sought to strengthen its ties with Europe and the US, causing strain in its relationship with Russia. Belarus has rejected proposals from Moscow for closer integration, including a single currency and common legislative initiatives. The relationship between the two countries has been further complicated by disputes over energy supplies and the arrest of 33 Russians in Belarus, who were accused of planning mass protests. Despite this, Russia has pushed for more integration with Belarus, with Russian President Vladimir Putin suggesting that Belarus should reactivate stalled plans for more integration. Belarus's President Alexander Lukashenko has resisted these overtures, accusing Russia of wanting to swallow up his country.

Belarus's ruler Lukashenko accused Russia of lying about a mercenary group

Belaruss ruler Lukashenko accused Russia of lying about a mercenary group

In 2020, Belarus's longtime ruler, President Alexander Lukashenko, accused Russia of lying about a "mercenary" group arrested in Minsk, Belarus. Lukashenko claimed that the group of 33 Russians, allegedly members of the Wagner mercenary group, were not simply transiting through Belarus en route to Istanbul, as Russia had asserted. Instead, he alleged that they had been sent to Belarus deliberately to wait for further instructions. Lukashenko also warned of another group deployed in the south of the country, vowing to "catch them all."

This incident occurred during a tense period in Belarus, as Lukashenko faced growing anti-government protests and sought re-election on August 9, 2020. He portrayed his opponents as wreckers controlled by "puppet masters" abroad and warned of a revolution plot, claiming that Belarus was threatened by forces seeking "colour revolutions" similar to those that toppled leaders in other ex-Soviet republics.

The arrest of the Russian mercenaries strained the relationship between Belarus and Russia, which are closely linked historically, culturally, and strategically. Russia urged Belarus to release the detained men, denying any involvement in plotting terrorism or interference in Belarus's presidential election. Moscow maintained that the Russians were transiting through Belarus to a third country and demanded their quick release.

Lukashenko's accusations against Russia came amidst broader concerns about Russian influence in Belarus. Lukashenko had previously sought to strengthen ties with Europe and the United States, causing friction with the Kremlin. There were also reports that the Kremlin was pushing for a merger between Russia and Belarus, offering cheap energy prices in exchange. However, Lukashenko resisted this pressure, stating that neither Russians nor Belarusians would want to follow this path.

The incident highlighted the complex dynamics between Belarus and Russia, with Lukashenko walking a delicate line between seeking independence and maintaining ties with its powerful neighbour.

Lukashenko has sought to strengthen ties with the West and diversify energy supplies

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has been in power for over 25 years, making him the longest-serving head of state in Europe. Throughout his rule, Belarus has generally been more closely aligned with Moscow than any other ex-Soviet state. However, Lukashenko has recently sought to strengthen ties with the West and diversify his country's energy supplies to reduce its near-total dependence on Russia.

Lukashenko's relationship with Russia, once his powerful ally and vocal supporter, has significantly deteriorated in recent years. Tensions between the two countries became apparent in 2020, when 33 Russian military contractors were arrested in Minsk, and Russia collaborated with opposition activist Siarhei Tsikhanouski. Lukashenko also accused Russia of trying to cover up an attempt to send 200 fighters from the private Russian military firm Wagner Group into Belarus to destabilize the country ahead of its presidential election.

Lukashenko has shown increasing signs of seeking a thaw with the United States and the European Union. In 2014, Belarus did not recognize Russia's annexation of the Crimea peninsula from Ukraine. In 2019, Lukashenko lifted a restriction that had capped the number of US diplomats permitted to operate in the country at just five since 2008. The Belarusian Foreign Ministry said it hoped the move would "contribute to the further normalization of relations between Belarus and the United States." Lukashenko has also held meetings with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who visited Minsk in early February 2020 and dangled the prospect of cheap US oil imports.

In addition to improving relations with the US, Lukashenko has also sought to strengthen ties with other Western countries. In November 2019, he visited Vienna, his first state visit to an EU country in three years. Lukashenko has also shown interest in improving relations with China, meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing in March 2023 and advocating an approach of "understanding China, learning from China, and approaching China."

Lukashenko's efforts to strengthen ties with the West and diversify energy supplies are driven by his desire to reduce Belarus's dependence on Russia and improve its negotiating position. Russia has long kept Belarus in its political orbit through subsidies and cheap energy supplies, but Moscow plans to phase these out to lessen the burden on its economy, hit by Western sanctions. Additionally, Lukashenko has expressed concerns about Russia's push for closer integration and outright unification between the two countries, which he believes would result in a loss of sovereignty for Belarus.

Belarus is a key transit country for Russian oil flowing to the West

Belarus is a critical transit country for Russian oil flowing to the West. The Druzhba pipeline, which crosses Belarus, supplies approximately 1 million barrels per day of Russian oil to Europe, including Poland and Germany. This amounts to around 10% of Europe's oil.

The transit link through Belarus is an essential component of Russia's energy strategy. In 2019, Russia experienced a significant interruption to its oil transit when contaminated Urals oil entered the Druzhba pipeline, halting supplies via Belarus for over a month. This disruption caused Russia to cut oil production due to transportation capacity constraints. As a result, Russian oil deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline decreased by nearly 7 million tonnes from 2018 to 2019.

The energy relationship between Russia and Belarus has been fraught with disputes. In 2020, a disagreement over supply terms led to a temporary suspension of Russian oil supplies to Belarusian refineries. Belarus, in turn, threatened to siphon off oil from the transit pipeline to Europe. These tensions highlight the complex dynamics between the two countries, with Russia seeking to exert influence over its neighbour, which serves as a buffer between Russia and the West.

While Belarus has expressed intentions to diversify its energy sources and reduce its dependence on Russia, it remains heavily reliant on Russian crude oil. Belarus's efforts to explore alternative supply routes and secure better terms of cooperation with other countries, such as Saudi Arabia, the US, and Norway, have been ongoing. However, logistical challenges and economic considerations continue to favour Russian oil supplies.

The relationship between Russia and Belarus extends beyond energy. There have been discussions and pressures for the two countries to merge, forming a unified state. Belarus's strategic location in Eastern Europe, cultural ties with Russia, and historical dependence on Moscow for trade and fuel contribute to the complex dynamics between the two nations.

Putin wants Belarus to reactivate stalled plans for more integration with Russia

Following a contested election win for Belarus's leader Alexander Lukashenko, Russian President Vladimir Putin has pushed for Belarus to reactivate plans for more integration with Russia. Putin's suggestion comes as the opposition in Belarus rejected official election results, calling for a peaceful transfer of power.

Historical ties between Russia and Belarus

Russia and Belarus share close links through language and culture, and Belarus was once a Soviet state. Belarus is strategically located in the center of Eastern Europe, on Russia's western flank.

Recent developments in the relationship

In recent years, Lukashenko has sought to strengthen ties with Europe and the US, which has annoyed the Kremlin. Belarus has also been improving ties with China and diversifying its energy supplies to reduce its near-total dependence on Russia.

Putin's ambitions for a new Russian Empire

Putin has compared himself to the eighteenth-century Russian Czar Peter the Great and has attempted to annex regions of Ukraine, declaring that he is "returning historically Russian lands." A leaked document from 2023, purportedly produced by Putin's administration, provides insight into Russia's plans to absorb Belarus by 2030. The document outlines economic, military, political, and social measures to achieve full absorption into a "Union State" with Russia.

Belarus's resistance to integration

Lukashenko has accused Russia of wanting to swallow up his country and has rejected closer ties after Russia scaled back energy subsidies. He has also rejected Russian proposals to open an airbase on Belarusian soil. Belarus's opposition leader, Svetlana Tikhanouska, has stated that the existing Union State between Russia and Belarus is a threat to Belarusian independence.

The future of Russia-Belarus relations

It remains to be seen whether Belarus will agree to further integration with Russia. Putin's ambitions for a new Russian Empire, including Belarus and Ukraine, are well-known, and he continues to push for the realization of this vision.

Belarus and Russia share a language, culture, and were once part of the Soviet Union

Shared Language

Belarus and Russia share a common language. Russian is one of the two official languages in Belarus, alongside Belarusian. Russian is also the dominant language in Belarus, with 70% of the population describing it as their "language normally spoken at home", compared to 23% for Belarusian. Russian is the language of instruction in most schools and universities, and it is the language used by the government, including by President Alexander Lukashenko.

Shared Culture

Belarus and Russia also share a culture. Both countries were historically part of Kievan Rus', a vast East Slavic state ruled by the Rurikids. Belarus was also part of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, which included parts of modern-day Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine, and Russia. This shared history has influenced the culture of both countries, including their language, religion, and traditions.

Soviet Union

Belarus and Russia were both part of the Soviet Union. Belarus, then known as the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic (BSSR), was one of the founding members of the USSR in 1922 and remained a constituent republic until the union's dissolution in 1991. During the Soviet era, Belarus was highly industrialized and became one of the world's most industrially developed states. However, it also experienced political repression, with an estimated 600,000 people falling victim to Soviet repressions in Belarus between 1917 and 1953.

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