Belarus Revolt: A Possibility Or Distant Dream?

Belarus has been dubbed Europe's last dictatorship and is ruled by Alexander Lukashenko, who has been in power since 1994. In 2020, Lukashenko sought a sixth term as president, triggering mass protests and demonstrations against his authoritarian rule and the rigging of elections. The protests, which were met with violent persecution by the authorities, intensified after Lukashenko was declared the winner of the election, despite the opposition candidate, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, claiming victory. The demonstrations, which have been likened to a social revolution, have continued despite the government's efforts to suppress them, and have raised questions about the potential for a full-scale revolt in Belarus.

The role of the KGB and the continued use of the death penalty

The KGB, or the State Security Committee of the Republic of Belarus, is the national intelligence agency of Belarus. It is the successor to the KGB of the Byelorussian SSR, a branch of the Soviet KGB which operated in the Byelorussian republic. The Belarusian KGB is governed by the law "About State Security Bodies of the Republic of Belarus" and is formally controlled by the country's president, Alexander Lukashenko.

The KGB has been accused by human rights organizations, the United States, and the European Union of acting as a secret police and committing human rights abuses. The agency has maintained the name, symbols, and some of the repressive functions of its Soviet predecessor. Several former chairmen and senior officers have been included in the sanctions lists of the EU and the US, particularly following the brutal crackdown on peaceful protests that followed the allegedly falsified presidential elections of 2006 and 2010.

The KGB plays a key role in human rights violations and political repression in Belarus. They have been accused of targeting the opposition, including detaining, intimidating, and pressuring them. The agency also has command over the Alpha Group, which serves as a counter-terrorist unit and can be tasked to assist other law enforcement organizations in anti-crime operations.

The death penalty, also known as the Exceptional Measure of Punishment, is a legal penalty in Belarus and is the only country in Europe that continues to carry out executions. The current national constitution prescribes this punishment for "grave crimes," which can include crimes against the state or individuals, as well as some non-violent crimes. Executions are carried out by a single shot to the back of the head, and the body is buried secretly.

In March 2023, President Lukashenko signed a bill into law that allows the use of the death penalty for officials and military servicemen convicted of high treason. This was part of changes to the criminal code aimed at strengthening Belarus' fight against "crimes of an extremist (terrorist) and anti-state orientation." Belarus has also not sent its troops to Ukraine but has allowed Russia to use its territory and airspace for attacks.

The use of capital punishment is one factor preventing Belarus from joining the Council of Europe, and international organizations such as the United Nations have criticized the methods used by the country when carrying out executions.

The role of the internet and social media in organising protests

The internet and social media played a crucial role in organising and documenting the 2020-2021 Belarusian protests against President Alexander Lukashenko's authoritarian rule and election rigging. Lukashenko, often dubbed "Europe's last dictator", has been in power since 1994 and faced unprecedented opposition during the 2020 election.

The Role of the Internet

Belarusian citizens enjoyed relatively unrestricted internet access, which became vital as online outlets served as the primary source of uncensored news for Belarusians. The government attempted to suppress this by cutting off access to many websites and imposing partial internet blackouts, but they failed to achieve a total blackout.

The Role of Social Media

Social media platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and Telegram became rallying spaces for protesters and supporters of the opposition. They served as essential tools for pro-democracy activists to spread their message, especially with other media monopolised by the authoritarian government.

Telegram, in particular, played a pivotal role in the protests. The NEXTA Live Telegram channel, with its rapid growth in subscribers, became a key platform for minute-by-minute news updates and instructions for protesters. Other large Telegram channels guided mass rallies, while smaller channels facilitated self-organisation down to the apartment-block level.

Western state media, such as Radio Liberty and the BBC, were able to reach receptive audiences through social media, further amplifying the protesters' message. Russian state media, on the other hand, generally kept Lukashenko at arm's length, reflecting the Russian government's ambivalence about his political survival.

Social media also served as a platform for individual acts of defiance, such as a 47-year-old business owner who shared their attempt to stop paying certain taxes, as the money "is used against us, the people."

Impact of Internet and Social Media

The internet and social media provided an extension of the physical space of the protests, allowing protesters to organise and coordinate despite government repression. They played a significant role in galvanising the movement and documenting the protests for the world to see.

The role of the international community and sanctions

The international community responded to the 2020–2021 Belarusian protests against President Alexander Lukashenko and his government with a mixture of sanctions, financial support, and other actions.

Sanctions

The European Union (EU) was the first entity to declare sanctions against the Belarusian authorities since the election. This was followed by the UK, Canada, and the US, as the state repression against peaceful protests continued. On 2 October 2020, the EU imposed sanctions on 40 Belarusian officials, with Lukashenko notably exempted to encourage him to engage in talks with the opposition. Hours later, Belarus retaliated with sanctions against EU officials. On the same day, the US imposed sanctions on eight Belarusian individuals.

On 13 October 2020, Switzerland joined the EU sanctions against 40 Belarusian individuals. Canada imposed sanctions on 31 additional individuals on 15 October, and the EU imposed sanctions on Lukashenko and 14 other officials on 6 November. Their assets in EU member states were frozen, and they were banned from entering EU territory. On 19 November, the EU announced an upcoming list of sanctions targeting firms and entrepreneurs that finance Lukashenko.

On 20 November 2020, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Albania, and Ukraine aligned themselves with the EU sanctions against 40 Belarusian individuals. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania imposed sanctions on 28 Belarusian individuals on the same day. On 24 November, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, North Macedonia, Montenegro, and Albania aligned themselves with the EU sanctions against 15 Belarusian individuals. Switzerland followed suit on 11 December.

On 17 December 2020, the EU imposed a third round of economic sanctions on dozens of Belarusian individuals and entities, including the head of Belarusian state television, Ivan Eismant, and Deputy Prime Minister Anatol Sivak. The sanctions package also included asset freezes on seven Belarusian companies, including arms exporter CJSC Beltechexport. On 23 December, the US imposed sanctions on one Belarusian individual and four entities, including the Central Election Commission of Belarus.

Other Actions

The Polish Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, announced a fund of €11 million to help protesters get visas and settle in Poland. Poland also offered support for Belarusian independent media and non-governmental organisations, and scholarships for Belarusian students in Poland. Lithuania offered medical assistance to injured protesters and granted asylum to a number of political dissidents.

On 19 August 2020, the EU promised €2 million to assist the victims of state violence and €1 million to support independent media as part of a €53 million package to support a peaceful transition.

On 23 May 2021, Belarus forced a Ryanair flight from Athens to Vilnius to land in Minsk, where a journalist critical of Lukashenko's regime was arrested. Western countries called the incident an example of "state piracy".

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on Belarus, with the country experiencing excess overall mortality higher than that of its neighbouring countries. The pandemic also exacerbated political tensions and public opposition to President Alexander Lukashenko's rule.

As a country with a high Human Development Index, Belarus notably did not implement any lockdowns and only limited non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were put in place for a period of time. This was due to the Belarusian authorities' desire to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic without resorting to populist measures. Instead, Belarus relied on its own manufacturing industry to soften the economic blow, with the country's export of agricultural products rising significantly in the first quarter.

However, the lack of stringent measures came at a human cost. A study found that the Belarusian mortality rate for June 2020 was 29 to 39% higher than expected, with an estimated excess death toll of between 2,953 and 3,690. In comparison, the reported COVID-19 mortality for the same month was only 157 cases. This excess mortality was also reflected in Google Trends funeral-related search queries, which showed a 138% excess for April 2020 and a 148% excess for September 2020 for the key phrase "coffin".

The pandemic also had a significant impact on student-athletes in Belarus. A study comparing Belarus and Poland, which implemented different anti-pandemic measures, found that Belarusian student-athletes experienced higher levels of stress perception and lower levels of life satisfaction compared to their Polish counterparts. They also reported lower levels of physical activity and employed less effective coping strategies during the pandemic.

The Belarusian government's handling of the pandemic, including denying it as a serious threat, sparked greater public opposition to Lukashenko's rule. This, coupled with the disputed 2020 presidential election, led to mass protests and a political crisis in the country.

The potential for Russian intervention

Geopolitical Dynamics

Belarus occupies a crucial geostrategic position between Russia and NATO countries, making it an essential player in the neo-Cold War rivalry between the two blocs. For Russia, Belarus serves as a strategic foothold, allowing it to project power close to the Polish capital, Warsaw. Additionally, the 500km-long Belarusian territory acts as a buffer against NATO threats, particularly through Kaliningrad, which provides access to the Suwalki Gap. This gap connects Poland and the Baltic countries, and controlling it would significantly hinder NATO's ability to support its Baltic allies in a potential armed conflict.

Military and Intelligence Cooperation

Russia and Belarus have a history of close military relations, with joint military-scientific activities and Russia operating several military bases and radars in Belarus. The Belarusian armed forces are highly integrated with Russia, with most high-ranking officers educated at Russian military universities. The training programs, combat regulations, and practical training of the two armies are almost identical. Additionally, the defense industries of both countries cooperate closely, with Belarus earning around $5 billion per year from this collaboration.

Economic Dependence

The Belarusian economy is heavily dependent on Russia, with most of its production destined for the Russian market. Belarus also relies on Russia for energy, giving Moscow significant leverage over Minsk. This economic dependence is a crucial factor in Russia's ability to influence Belarus.

Political Dynamics

On the political front, Russia has sought to draw Belarus closer through integration initiatives, particularly the 1999 Union State Treaty. While Belarusian President Lukashenko initially showed interest, his enthusiasm waned when it became clear that Russian President Putin intended to extend his rule indefinitely. Lukashenko feared that closer integration would lead to the absorption of Belarus by Russia. Despite this, Russia continues to exert influence, and Lukashenko has requested Russian support in repressing non-violent demonstrations.

Scenarios of Russian Intervention

The nature of Russian intervention in Belarus could take several forms:

• Assistance to Lukashenko: Russia could provide formal assistance to the Lukashenko regime if it collapses or faces significant challenges. This would likely be framed as a joint Russian-Belarusian operation and could include accelerated strategic exercises in response to alleged external threats.
• Stabilization Operation: If Belarus descends into chaotic conditions, Russia may intervene under the pretext of stabilizing the country. This could be justified as a mission for the Collective Security Treaty Organization, of which both countries are members.
• Invasion of a New Belarusian State: In the event of a successful opposition takeover, Russia could militarily invade Belarus to prevent the establishment of a pro-Western government in Minsk. This scenario is the riskiest but could be deemed necessary due to Russia's strategic interests.

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While Russia has a range of options for intervention, the actual course of action will depend on the evolution of events in Belarus and the reactions of the Belarusian army and society. The West's response to Russian intervention is likely to be diplomatic, legal, or economic rather than military.

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