Who Could Take Russia's Nukes? Belarus, Kazakhstan, And Ukraine

Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine are all former Soviet republics that inherited nuclear weapons following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. However, these countries have since renounced their nuclear capabilities and acceded to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as non-nuclear states. They have transferred their nuclear warheads to Russia for dismantlement. As of 2024, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine do not possess any nuclear weapons.

The Soviet Union's nuclear arsenal was divided among 4 independent republics in 1991

The Soviet Union's nuclear arsenal was divided among four newly independent republics in 1991. Russia and fourteen other newly independent states emerged from the ruins of the Soviet Union, many as nations for the first time in history. This was followed by a period of chaos, confusion, and corruption.

The Soviet Union's nuclear arsenal was divided among the newly independent republics of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine. In total, 3,200 strategic nuclear warheads remained in these three countries, most of them atop intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that stood on alert, ready to be fired at targets in the U.S.

Today, every one of the nuclear weapons in these countries has been deactivated and returned to Russia, where they were dismantled and the nuclear material in the warheads blended down to produce fuel for civilian reactors. This process of denuclearization was completed by 2012, and not a single nuclear weapon has been discovered outside of Russia since then.

The division of the Soviet Union's nuclear arsenal among the newly independent republics was a significant moment in history, and the successful denuclearization of these countries serves as an important example for non-proliferation and nuclear security efforts worldwide.

Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine are now non-nuclear states

Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine are now non-nuclear states, having given up their nuclear weapons in the 1990s. In 1991, the Soviet Union's nuclear arsenal was divided among four independent republics: Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus. This raised fears of unchecked nuclear proliferation and confrontation. However, these fears did not materialize as these former Soviet republics chose to give up their nuclear weapons and join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as non-nuclear states.

The decision to renounce nuclear weapons was driven by economic, political, and military costs, as well as the desire to avoid international isolation and political and economic reprisals. By the mid-1990s, all nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus had been deactivated, removed, and returned to Russia for dismantlement. The nuclear material from the warheads was blended down to produce fuel for civilian reactors.

The process of denuclearization in these countries offers valuable lessons for future non-proliferation efforts. It demonstrates that the risks of nuclear possession are often considered to outweigh the benefits, especially when weighed against the costs of diplomatic isolation and loss of access to economic and technological advancements. Additionally, the cases of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine, along with other nuclear abstainers, provide hope for a future with reduced nuclear danger.

While these cases of nuclear restraint are encouraging, there are still discouraging signs, as some countries continue to view nuclear weapons as a source of military or political power. Nevertheless, the international community appears to be approaching a decisive point in the evolution of the non-proliferation regime, with the potential for either temporary steps or the progressive delegitimization of weapons of mass destruction.

All Soviet nuclear weapons were transferred to Russia for dismantling

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine became independent states. At the time, Ukraine held the third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world, with an estimated 1,900 strategic warheads, 176 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), and 44 strategic bombers. Belarus and Kazakhstan also had nuclear weapons on their territory.

The process of removing and dismantling these weapons was complex and required negotiations between several countries. The Lisbon Protocol, signed in May 1992, was the first step in this process. It sought to return the nuclear weapons in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine to Russia and required all states to join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START).

However, within Ukraine, there was resistance to the idea of giving up their nuclear weapons. Some Ukrainian politicians felt that Russia still posed a threat and that they should keep the weapons as a deterrent. Despite this, negotiations continued, and in January 1994, Ukraine, Russia, and the United States signed the Trilateral Statement. Ukraine agreed to transfer its nuclear warheads to Russia for elimination in exchange for security assurances, compensation for the commercial value of the highly-enriched uranium in the warheads, and assistance from the US in dismantling the nuclear infrastructure.

By June 1, 1996, Ukraine had transferred all of its nuclear warheads to Russia, and the last START-accountable strategic nuclear delivery vehicle was eliminated in 2001. Belarus and Kazakhstan also returned their nuclear weapons to Russia, with Kazakhstan transferring all of its weapons by 1995. Today, all of the nuclear weapons in these former Soviet republics have been deactivated and dismantled, and there are zero nuclear weapons in any other state of the former Soviet Union.

The US paid Kazakhstan $25 million for the transfer of HEU

Kazakhstan had 1,400 Soviet-era nuclear warheads on its territory when it became independent from the Soviet Union in 1991. In addition, it had an undisclosed number of tactical nuclear weapons. One of the Soviet Union's two major nuclear test sites was located in Semipalatinsk, Kazakhstan, where at least 460 nuclear tests took place.

As part of the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, the United States assisted Kazakhstan in removing 1,322 lbs of highly enriched uranium (HEU) from the Ulba Metallurgical Plant in Ust-Kamenogorsk. The US paid Kazakhstan $25 million for the transfer of this HEU. The US also assisted Kazakhstan in sealing the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site, which was officially closed in 1991. This involved sealing 13 bore holes and 181 tunnels at the site to prevent scavengers from accessing plutonium.

By April 1995, Kazakhstan had transferred all of its Soviet-era nuclear weapons to the Russian Federation. In 2020, Kazakhstan and the US downblended the last supply of HEU in the country, converting 2.9 kg of unirradiated HEU to low-enriched uranium (LEU).

The Lisbon Protocol obligated Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus to comply with the START agreement

The Lisbon Protocol, signed on May 23, 1992, was a document that recognised Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan as the successor states of the former Soviet Union. All four states assumed the obligations of the Soviet Union under the START I treaty, which was signed in July 1991.

The protocol was signed in Lisbon, Portugal, and each state had to ratify and implement both the protocol and the treaty. Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan inherited a significant number of nuclear weapons, and the Lisbon Protocol sought to alleviate fears of proliferation by committing these three non-Russian former Soviet states to return their nuclear weapons to Russia.

The Lisbon Protocol made all five states party to the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), which required Washington and Moscow to cut their deployed strategic nuclear forces. Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine promised to accede to the NPT as non-nuclear-weapon states "in the shortest possible time", a commitment they fulfilled and continue to abide by.

Despite some resistance and political disputes, all Soviet nuclear weapons were eventually transferred to Russia by the end of 1996, marking the completion of the Lisbon Protocol obligations.

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