Belarus' Future: Will The Country Revolt?

Belarus has been in the news in recent years due to the country's political situation and its relationship with Russia. Following fraudulent presidential elections in 2020, Belarus experienced a wave of peaceful protests, with the largest anti-government protests in the country's history. These demonstrations were met with violent persecution by the authoritarian regime of Alexander Lukashenko, who has been in power since 1994 and is often referred to as Europe's last dictator. The democratic revolution in Belarus has outlasted expectations, despite mass detentions, torture of activists, and crackdowns on independent media. The country now faces the question of whether it will transition to democracy or continue to face repression under Lukashenko's rule.

The future of Belarus is uncertain, but there are several possible scenarios that could play out. Some speculate that Belarus could gradually merge with Russia, becoming further subordinated to its larger neighbour. Others suggest that Lukashenko may be replaced by someone from his inner circle, or that a popular backlash against him could lead to a transition to democracy. With the ongoing war in Ukraine, the role of Belarus as a key military base for Russia, and the country's strategic importance in Europe, the situation in Belarus is a critical issue to monitor in the coming months and years.

The role of the US and the EU in the 2020-2021 Belarusian protests

The 2020–2021 Belarusian protests were a series of mass demonstrations against the government and President Alexander Lukashenko. The protests began in the lead-up to and during the 2020 presidential election, in which Lukashenko sought his sixth term in office.

The Role of the US

The US was slow to react to the human rights violations in Belarus in the aftermath of the 2020 presidential elections. The pro-democracy uprising in Belarus coincided with the final months of Donald Trump's presidency, and the events in Belarus were overshadowed by the 2020 US presidential elections.

The US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, urged the Belarusian government to engage with the newly established Coordination Council, "in a way that reflects what the Belarusian people are demanding, for the sake of Belarus’ future, and for a successful Belarus".

In December 2020, the US passed the Belarus Democracy, Human Rights, and Sovereignty Act, which expanded the president's authority to impose sanctions on the regime and provide assistance to Belarus. In July 2021, the US established a bipartisan Friends of Belarus Congressional Caucus, and President Biden met with the leader of the Belarusian opposition, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.

The Role of the EU

The EU's initial response to the crisis in Belarus was slow and weak. It failed to send a clear message to the Belarusian authorities about the red lines that should not be crossed. The EU's actions, consisting of diplomatic instruments and sanctions, were limited in their impact due to differences of opinion among member states over the common policy towards the crisis.

The EU published a statement that rejected the legitimacy of the election, called for new elections, and condemned the repression and violence against the protesters. The EU imposed sanctions on Belarusian officials responsible for "violence and falsification" and diverted €53 million in funding away from the government and towards civil society, victims of the state crackdown, and the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic.

The EU also emphasised the need for a national dialogue and the involvement of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). It adopted a €24 million assistance package to be dispersed directly to Belarusian civil society, youth groups, and small and medium-sized enterprises.

The responses of the US and the EU to the 2020–2021 Belarusian protest movement had a decisive impact on the pro-democracy uprising in Belarus. While the US initially had a slow response, it later increased its attention towards Belarus and imposed sanctions on the regime. The EU's response was slow and limited in its impact, but it eventually imposed sanctions and provided financial assistance to the country.

The influence of the Kremlin on the Lukashenko regime

Alexander Lukashenko, the current president of Belarus, has held office since 1994, making him the longest-serving head of state in Europe. Lukashenko's rule has been characterised by the suppression of opposition and the limitation of media freedom. His regime has frequently repressed opponents, with many dissidents and rivals vanishing or ending up in jail.

Lukashenko's relationship with Russia has been a crucial aspect of his political career. He has maintained close ties with Russia, relying on its political, economic, and military support. Lukashenko's dependence on Russia increased following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, as he assumed a position in the interim anti-corruption committee of the Supreme Council of Belarus.

The Kremlin's backing became even more vital after the 2020 Belarusian presidential election, when Lukashenko claimed victory amid widespread allegations of vote-rigging. This triggered mass protests and a crackdown on independent media by the Lukashenko regime. The European Union and the United States refused to recognise Lukashenko as the legitimate president of Belarus.

Lukashenko's reliance on Russia is evident in his alignment with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He played a crucial role in creating the Union State of Russia and Belarus, allowing free travel and work between the two countries. Lukashenko's support for Putin was further demonstrated when he permitted Russian forces to stage part of the invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory in February 2022.

The Kremlin's influence on Lukashenko is also financial, with Belarus receiving economic assistance and benefiting from preferential energy prices. This financial dependence has made it challenging for Lukashenko to pursue alternative foreign policy options and has increased his vulnerability to Russian pressure.

However, the relationship between Lukashenko and the Kremlin is not without tensions. There have been disagreements related to trade, and Lukashenko has, at times, accused Russia of meddling in Belarus's internal affairs. Despite these frictions, the Kremlin's support remains crucial for Lukashenko's regime, and the two countries continue to cooperate closely, including through joint nuclear drills.

The possibility of a European future for Belarus

Belarus has been ruled by an authoritarian regime for almost three decades, with Alyaksandr Lukashenka at the helm. However, the country reached a political impasse after the rigged 2020 presidential election, which sparked mass protests and revealed deep cracks in Lukashenka's regime. This has opened up the possibility of a European future for Belarus, which was previously unthinkable. Here are four to six paragraphs elaborating on this topic.

The protests have also given rise to a new generation of political leaders who are quite unlike the marginalized and discredited traditional opposition. This new opposition is comprised of professionals from diverse backgrounds, including managers, lawyers, public relations specialists, former government officials, musicians, and cultural figures. They are united by the common goal of removing Lukashenka's regime and reflect the breadth of Belarusian society. This new generation of leaders is more in tune with the aspirations of the people, particularly the younger generations who yearn for a new and exciting vision of the future.

The European Union (EU) and its member states have played a crucial role in supporting the Belarusian opposition and putting pressure on the Lukashenka regime. The EU has repeatedly condemned the violence against protesters and rejected the legitimacy of the 2020 election. It has also imposed sanctions on Belarusian officials responsible for the election fraud and human rights abuses. Additionally, the EU has redirected financial aid away from the regime and towards civil society, aiming to strengthen democratic institutions and support political change. The EU's soft power has been instrumental in engaging Belarusians and offering an alternative vision for the country's future.

The prospect of European integration for Belarus is not just a distant dream but a tangible possibility. Belarus is strategically located on the eastern border of the EU, and its integration would contribute significantly to regional security and stability. A democratic Belarus, free from Russian influence, would enhance the security of neighboring Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic states. It would also encourage a post-imperial identity in Russia and reduce the risk of hybrid hostilities or direct attacks on the Baltic states. Furthermore, Belarus boasts a highly educated and relatively young demographic, as well as burgeoning IT and entrepreneurial sectors. European integration would provide access to EU travel, education, and capital, enhancing the country's economic and social development.

However, there are challenges and obstacles to Belarus's European future. Russia, which views Belarus as a key ally, has backed Lukashenka and sought to increase the country's dependence on Moscow. Additionally, the Belarusian regime's control over state institutions, security forces, and the media remains strong. The opposition, while gaining momentum, lacks political experience and a long-term strategic vision. Nevertheless, the winds of change are blowing in Belarus, and the country's future trajectory will have significant implications for Europe as a whole.

The impact of the Ukraine war on Belarus's status with Russia

Belarus's relationship with Russia has been strengthened by the war in Ukraine. Belarus has supported Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, allowing Russian troops to perform military drills on its territory and even lending its territory to Russian soldiers to attack Ukraine. This has resulted in severe deterioration in Ukraine-Belarus relations in economic, political, and security domains. Ukraine has divested from strategically important Belarusian imports, particularly petroleum products, and bilateral trade has plummeted as a consequence.

Since mid-2022, the direct threats against Ukraine from the Minsk regime have diminished due to the reduced Russian military presence in Belarus. However, Belarus's role in the conflict has evolved, and it has now become a crucial supplier of military hardware, munitions, and military components to Russia. Belarus has also participated in Russia's psychological and informational operations that precede any new phase in the war. For instance, leaked Pentagon documents revealed Russian efforts in the first half of 2023 to create the impression among Ukrainian intelligence of a potential second offensive originating from Belarus.

Belarus has also allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory and permitted Russian planes to launch aircraft from its military airbases. In addition, the Belarusian state and state-affiliated organisations have actively participated in the forced transfers of Ukrainian children to Belarus, where they are held in recreational camps.

The involvement of Belarus in the conflict has been condemned in Western countries, and the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan have imposed sanctions against the country. According to Chatham House, Belarus's participation in the military conflict is unpopular among the general population, and protests were held on 27 February 2022, although they were quickly dispersed.

The war in Ukraine has also had an impact on the domestic situation in Belarus. The democratic revolution in the country has outlasted expectations despite intense repression from the dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka's regime. The United States and the European Union have condemned the state's violent treatment of protestors while expanding sanctions against Lukashenka and his supporters. However, with financial and security assistance from the Kremlin propping up the authoritarian regime, there are calls for US policymakers to do more to support the Belarusian people in their struggle for freedom and democracy.

The role of the media and journalists in the protests

The media and journalists played a crucial role in the 2020-2021 Belarusian protests, which were a series of mass demonstrations against the government and President Alexander Lukashenko. The protests, nicknamed the Slipper Revolution and the Anti-Cockroach Revolution, were initiated by businessman and blogger Sergei Tikhanovsky, who travelled across Belarus interviewing random people on his YouTube channel. Tikhanovsky was detained in May 2020, sparking further protests and a wave of arrests of opposition activists, protesters, journalists, and bloggers.

During the 2020 Belarusian presidential election, reports of attacks on journalists increased. President Lukashenko threatened to expel media and ban them from reporting on the election, and several independent journalists were arrested in Minsk, Brest, and Babruisk. On August 9, 2020, the day of the election, all roads and entry points to Minsk were blocked by the police and army, and the internet in Belarus was partially blocked.

Independent journalists covering the protests were deliberately shot at with rubber bullets, and several were injured. There were also reports of journalists being forced to delete photos or having their cameras crushed, and others were beaten while in custody. The Belarusian Association of Journalists reported that in the course of the research for 2021-2022, 1,432 cases of attacks/threats against media workers and editorial offices were identified and analysed.

The crackdown on journalists was part of the government's efforts to silence media reporting on human rights violations and peaceful protests. Between late September 2020 and March 2021, the authorities opened at least 18 criminal cases against journalists, and at least 400 journalists were detained on administrative charges. The Belarusian Association of Journalists stated that between August 2020 and March 2021, at least 100 journalists were given short administrative jail terms, while others were fined.

In addition to detentions and arrests, journalists also faced other forms of repression, including fines, searches, and threats. State security forces often summoned journalists for interrogation and threatened their relatives. The authorities also revoked media credentials and raided homes and offices. At least one newspaper had to temporarily close due to threats of criminal prosecution, raids, and confiscated equipment.

The independent media outlet Tut.by, which was the country's most popular news portal, was particularly targeted by the authorities. In January 2023, its chief editor, Maryna Zolatava, and general director Lyudmila Chekina were sentenced to 12 years in prison on various charges, including "harming the national security of the Republic of Belarus.". As a result of the crackdown, many journalists have been imprisoned, while others have been forced to flee the country or leave the profession.

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