Wagner's Belarus Threat: Will They Attack From Within?

In June 2023, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, was exiled to Belarus as part of a deal to end his insurrection against the Kremlin. Former chief of the UK General Staff, Lord Dannatt, warned that if Prigozhin kept an effective fighting force around him in Belarus, he could pose a threat to Kyiv by attacking from the closest Ukrainian flank. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has expressed interest in Wagner commanders sharing their experiences and knowledge of weapons, tactics, and how to attack and defend with the Belarusian army. However, it is unclear what the future holds for Wagner fighters in Belarus, and there is speculation that Putin may have presented Belarus as a haven for them as a trap.

Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin exiled to Belarus

Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was exiled to Belarus in June 2023 as part of a deal to end his failed insurrection against the Kremlin. Prigozhin, a former convict, rose to become Russia's most powerful mercenary and was once a close confidant of Russian President Vladimir Putin. He founded the Wagner Group in 2014 to support Russian separatist forces in Ukraine. The group has also supported Russian interests in Syria, Africa, and Latin America.

Prigozhin's rebellion against the Russian military leadership began on June 23, 2023, when Wagner forces captured Rostov-on-Don and advanced toward Moscow. The following day, Prigozhin called off the mutiny and agreed to relocate his forces to Belarus. In exchange, the Kremlin dropped criminal charges against him and other Wagner members.

The Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, offered Prigozhin and his troops an abandoned base in Belarus. Lukashenko said that Wagner fighters could provide his country with valuable insights on warfare, including tactics, weapons, and how to attack and defend. However, it is unclear how many Wagner fighters actually followed Prigozhin to Belarus, as part of the deal included Wagner fighters being subsumed into the Russian army.

The exile of Prigozhin and the potential presence of Wagner fighters in Belarus have raised concerns about a possible attack on Kyiv, Ukraine's capital. Lord Dannatt, former chief of the UK General Staff, warned that if Prigozhin retained an effective fighting force, he could pose a threat to Kyiv.

Wagner Group's attempted coup in Russia

In June 2023, the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary outfit led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, launched an armed uprising in Russia. The group took over the military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don and began marching towards Moscow, reportedly downing multiple helicopters and a military communication aircraft. This rebellion was a direct challenge to Vladimir Putin's authority and caused a brief moment of chaos in Russia.

The Wagner Group's attempted coup was short-lived, however, as a deal was brokered by Belarus' self-proclaimed president, Alexander Lukashenko, which resulted in Prigozhin agreeing to end the insurrection and go into exile in Belarus. This deal was struck after Prigozhin's forces had come within 200km of Moscow and had halted their advance. As part of the agreement, the Kremlin agreed to drop criminal charges against Prigozhin and the Wagner Group, and they, in turn, retreated to their respective camps.

The former chief of the UK's General Staff, General Richard Dannatt (or Lord Dannatt), warned that the Wagner Group's presence in Belarus could pose a threat to Kyiv, Ukraine's capital. He stated that if Prigozhin had "kept an effective fighting force around him", then they could "present a threat again to the Ukrainian flank closest to Kyiv". This concern was echoed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who emphasised the chaos and unpredictability within Russia and urged his military leaders to remain vigilant.

In the aftermath of the attempted coup, Putin appeared on Russian state TV, restating his commitment to the "special military operation" in Ukraine. However, it is believed that these comments were recorded before the mutiny. The impact of the rebellion has been analysed by various sources, including US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who noted that it revealed "real cracks" in Russia's military direction.

The future of the Wagner Group and its fighters in Belarus remains uncertain. While Belarusian President Lukashenko has expressed interest in utilising their experience in Ukraine to enhance his country's military tactics and strategies, the Institute for the Study of War suggested that Putin may have presented Belarus as a haven for the Wagner Group as a trap.

Wagner Group's threat to Kyiv from Belarus

Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin could potentially lead an attack on Kyiv from Belarus, warned former British Army Chief of General Staff, General Richard Dannatt, on 25 June 2023. This concern arose following Prigozhin's departure to Belarus after the Wagner Group's attempted coup in Russia.

A Matter of Concern

General Dannatt emphasised the worry surrounding Prigozhin's presence in Belarus, stating: "The fact that he's gone to Belarus is a matter of some concern." The former Chief of the UK's General Staff elaborated on this concern, explaining that if Prigozhin maintained "an effective fighting force" in Belarus, he would once again pose a threat to the Ukrainian flank closest to Kyiv. This proximity to the capital increases the possibility of Russia utilising the Wagner Group in another attempt to seize the city.

The Wagner Group's Rebellion

The Wagner Group, a private mercenary group, staged an armed uprising in Russia, briefly seizing control of the military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don and advancing towards Moscow. However, a deal brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko led to Prigozhin agreeing to end the mutiny and go into exile in Belarus. As part of the agreement, the Kremlin dropped criminal charges against Prigozhin, and Wagner troops who participated in the rebellion were promised no repercussions.

The Future of the Wagner Group in Belarus

While the future of the Wagner Group in Belarus remains uncertain, there are speculations about their potential utilisation. Belarusian President Lukashenko has expressed interest in gaining tactical knowledge from the Wagner commanders, particularly regarding drone warfare, effective weapons, and attack and defence strategies. He believes that their frontline experience in Ukraine can strengthen Belarus's military capabilities.

Implications for Ukraine

The possibility of a Wagner Group attack on Kyiv from Belarus underscores the ongoing threat to Ukraine's capital. Ukrainian forces must remain vigilant and prepared to defend against potential incursions from the Belarusian border. This situation highlights the complex dynamics of the conflict, with Belarus's support for Russia posing a strategic challenge for Ukraine.

Wagner Group's war crimes in Africa

The Wagner Group, a Russian private military company (PMC) with close ties to the Kremlin, has been accused of committing war crimes and human rights abuses in several African countries, including Mali and the Central African Republic (CAR).

War Crimes in Mali

In Mali, the Wagner Group has been implicated in massacres, executions, and the falsification of evidence to frame French forces for atrocities. On April 22, 2022, French military footage showed Wagner troops arranging corpses in shallow mass graves near an army base in Gossi to stage evidence of French atrocities. Wagner's presence in Mali is part of a broader pattern of engagement in sub-Saharan Africa, where it pursues partnerships with resource-rich states with weak governance to trade security services for financial gain and to advance Russian geopolitical interests.

The arrival of Wagner troops in Mali in December 2021 coincided with an increase in violence against civilians. Human Rights Watch tracked at least 71 civilian deaths linked to the Malian armed forces (FAMa) from late December 2021 to March 15, 2022, with many more uncounted due to the challenges of collecting witness testimony in conflict zones.

The worst single civilian massacre in Mali's decade-long conflict occurred from March 27 to 31, 2022, when FAMa and Wagner troops laid siege to the town of Moura, executing approximately 300 civilians in what was purportedly a counterterrorism operation. Despite international condemnation and calls for a UN investigation, the Malian junta has refused to grant access to Moura to investigators, and Russia has blocked requests for an independent probe.

War Crimes in the Central African Republic (CAR)

In the CAR, the Wagner Group has been accused of abusing and killing civilians since 2019, according to a report by Human Rights Watch (HRW). The United Nations and several governments have stated that the Wagner Group has committed war crimes and crimes against humanity in the country.

HRW's report includes witness accounts of a roadblock by Russian men north of Bossangoa on July 21, 2021, where 13 unarmed men on motorcycles were stopped, beaten, and shot dead, with their bodies dumped in a shallow hole by the road. The U.N. Working Group on the Use of Mercenaries confirmed that "military personnel and Russian security" were responsible and that witnesses to the executions were threatened by Russian personnel.

Another incident mentioned in the report occurred in February 2021 in Bambari, CAR, where Wagner and local troops killed at least six civilians after opening fire at the al-Takwa mosque. The following day, they pursued a fight inside a medical center, wounding 36 civilians, including 9 children.

Wagner Group mercenaries have also been implicated in massacres in the villages of Aïgbado and Yanga near Bria in the CAR. On January 16 and 17, 2022, they indiscriminately shot at civilians, burned homes, and executed at least 65 people, including women and children.

Potential Attack from Belarus

Former Chief of the UK's General Staff, General Richard Dannatt, has warned that Ukraine should be cautious of a potential attack on Kyiv by the Wagner Group mercenaries led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, who was exiled to Belarus after a brief uprising against the Kremlin. If Prigozhin has retained an effective fighting force, he could pose a threat to the Ukrainian flank closest to Kyiv. Belarus' president, Alexander Lukashenko, has expressed interest in having Wagner commanders share their tactical knowledge and combat experience with the Belarusian army.

Wagner Group's future in Belarus

The Wagner Group's future in Belarus remains uncertain, with various factors influencing its potential role and impact.

Firstly, it is important to note that the Wagner Group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, was exiled to Belarus following a brief uprising against the Kremlin in June 2023. This exile was part of a deal to end the insurrection, negotiated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, which included the Kremlin agreeing to drop criminal charges against Prigozhin. This agreement suggests that the Wagner Group may have some level of sanctuary in Belarus.

However, it is unclear how many fighters were able to accompany Prigozhin to Belarus. British military officials, including former Chief of the General Staff Lord Richard Dannatt, have warned that if Prigozhin retained a significant fighting force, they could pose a threat to Kyiv by attacking from Belarusian territory. This concern is heightened by the Wagner Group's reputation for brutal tactics and alleged war crimes in Africa and Ukraine.

The Wagner Group's presence in Belarus may also be influenced by its relationship with Lukashenko. Lukashenko has expressed interest in utilizing the group's combat experience to enhance Belarus's military capabilities. He has stated that Wagner commanders can provide valuable insights into tactics, weapons, and attack and defence strategies, particularly regarding drone warfare. This pragmatic approach by Lukashenko suggests that the Wagner Group may be integrated into Belarus's military strategy in some capacity.

However, there are conflicting reports about the Wagner Group's future in Belarus. Russian media outlet Verstka reported that Belarus is constructing a base for approximately 8,000 Wagner fighters near the Ukrainian border. In contrast, the Institute for the Study of War suggested that Putin may have presented Belarus as a haven for the Wagner Group as a trap. They argued that the Kremlin would likely consider Wagner Group members who followed Prigozhin to Belarus as traitors, and Belarus's authorities might ultimately follow Russia's lead in dealing with the group.

In conclusion, while the Wagner Group has found temporary sanctuary in Belarus following its insurrection, the group's future remains uncertain. The number of fighters accompanying Prigozhin, the potential integration of Wagner commanders into Belarus's military strategy, and the conflicting reports about the Kremlin's intentions all contribute to a complex and evolving situation. The Wagner Group's presence in Belarus continues to be a cause for concern for Ukrainian defence, particularly regarding the potential threat to Kyiv.

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