Belarus' Involvement: Understanding The Complex Dynamics

Belarus, officially the Republic of Belarus, is a landlocked country in Eastern Europe. It is bordered by Russia to the east and northeast, Ukraine to the south, Poland to the west, and Lithuania and Latvia to the northwest. Belarus has a population of around 9 million people and its capital and largest city is Minsk.

Belarus has close ties with Russia and has supported its eastern neighbour in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Before the invasion, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to perform military drills on its territory and, during the invasion, it allowed Russia to stage part of the invasion from its territory. Belarus has also allowed Russian missile launchers to be stationed on its territory and shoot at Ukrainian targets.

The involvement of Belarus in the conflict has been condemned by Western countries, with the US, EU, UK, Canada, and Japan imposing sanctions.

Belarus's role in the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Belarus has played a key role in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, despite not being directly involved in combat. Belarus is a close ally of Russia and shares a border with Ukraine, which has allowed Russia to use its territory to stage the invasion. In the lead-up to the invasion, Belarus allowed the Russian Armed Forces to conduct military drills on its territory, and these troops remained in the country after the drills ended. This gave Russia the shortest possible land route to Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, and Russian forces invaded Ukraine from Belarus on February 24, 2022. Russian missiles have also been launched from Belarus, and injured Russian soldiers have been treated in Belarusian hospitals.

The involvement of Belarus in the conflict has been widely condemned in the West, and the country has faced sanctions from the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan. Belarus has also hosted diplomatic talks between Russia and Ukraine and, while it has maintained its neutrality, its leader, Alexander Lukashenko, has assured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Belarusian armed forces would not participate in the conflict.

Belarus's role in the invasion is partly due to its close ties with Russia, which have strengthened since the 2020 political crisis in Belarus that increased Lukashenko's dependence on Russian support. Belarus has a history of mediation and peacemaking in the region, but escalating anti-Western rhetoric and military activity on its border with Ukraine have raised concerns about its direct involvement in the conflict.

The country's relationship with Russia

Belarus and Russia share a land border and constitute the supranational Union State. Several treaties have been concluded between the two nations bilaterally. Russia is Belarus's largest and most important economic and political partner. Both are members of various international organizations, including the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Union, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and the United Nations.

After the Soviet Union collapsed, the newly formed Russian state tried to maintain control over the post-Soviet space by creating, on 8 December 1991, a regional organization – the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). However, Belarus, as other republics in the CIS, started to drift away from Russia, which at that time was attempting to stabilize its broken economy and ties with the West.

In the early 1990s, Russia was concerned that its involvement in the near-abroad state such as Belarus would risk the relations it was trying to build with the West. However, as NATO began to expand eastward, Russia found itself in a difficult situation. On one hand, it was facing a breakup of the large geopolitical bloc it had once controlled. On the other, it felt that the West was trying to isolate it from the European environment by picking up the pieces of its former empire. This led to the increasing importance of good relations with Belarus.

In the mid-1990s and especially with Alexander Lukashenko coming to power in July 1994, Belarus seemed an ideal candidate for integration with Russia. Russian President Boris Yeltsin said after signing, in February 1995, the Treaty of Friendship, Good-Neighborliness and Cooperation with Belarus, that "the two nations [had] shared a common historical experience over many centuries". That, he declared, had "created the basis for signing the treaty and other documents on deeper integration of our two countries. Among all CIS countries, Belarus has the greatest rights to such a relationship due to its geographical location, its contacts with Russia, our friendship and the progress of its reforms."

The integration process was launched on 2 April 1996 and exactly a year later, the Union of Belarus and Russia was founded. The culmination of this process was the establishment of a Union State between the RF and Belarus on 8 December 1999. The Treaty on Equal Rights of Citizens between Belarus and Russia was signed in December 1998, covering employment, and access to medical care and education.

After Vladimir Putin took office, he expressed his deep dissatisfaction with the status of the relations with Belarus and criticized the 1999 treaty. His proposal was to continue the unification either in a federation model, which meant that Belarus would join the Russian Federation, or to build a union similar to the European Union. However, Belarus refused and the status quo was maintained.

Despite that, the strategic value of Belarus seemed to continue to rise for Russia because of international developments. These activities included the United States military activity in the post-Soviet space since the September 11 attacks in 2001, the eastern European states' shift towards the west, the plans to deploy NATO's missile defense system in Poland or the Czech Republic, and above all the rise of the colour revolutions. As a result, despite setbacks in political and economic integration, the military-integration processes between the two states continued.

As Russia realized that a full integration with Belarus would be costly, it shifted its foreign policy towards a more pragmatic direction. Two major goals were distinguishable in this policy: the first was to reduce the economic burden that Belarus laid on its economy, and the second was to take over the energy transit infrastructure in Belarus. These two goals have influenced most of the conflicts and Gas Wars between the two countries.

In 2014, following years of embrace of Russian influence in the country, Lukashenko pressed a revival of Belarusian identity after the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War: the Russian annexation of Crimea and military intervention in Eastern Ukraine. For the first time, he delivered a speech in Belarusian (rather than Russian, which most people use), in which he said, "We are not Russian — we are Belarusians," and later encouraged the use of Belarusian. Trade disputes, a border dispute, and a much relaxed official attitude to dissident voices are all part of a weakening of the longtime warm relationship with Russia.

In 2020, signs of new tensions between Belarus and Russia emerged when Lukashenko publicly accused Putin of trying to incorporate Belarus into Russia. This led to Russia cutting economic subsidies for Belarus. In July 2020, the relationship between the two countries was described as "strained" after 33 Russian military contractors were arrested in Minsk. Lukashenko accused Russia of trying to cover up an attempt to send 200 fighters from a private Russian military firm known as the Wagner Group to destabilize Belarus ahead of its presidential election.

Lukashenko has been a crucial ally of Russia, particularly after the 2020 Belarusian presidential elections, which saw Minsk increasingly isolated from the West amidst election fraud claims and subsequent crackdowns on dissidents. Russia also launched its 2022 invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory, though Minsk has been ostensibly reluctant to directly participate in the war.

The impact of the Ukrainian crisis on domestic developments

Belarus has been impacted by the Ukrainian crisis in several ways, with consequences for its domestic politics and developments. Here are some key points outlining the impact on the country:

• Involvement in the Russian Invasion: Belarus has played a significant role in supporting Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It allowed Russian troops to conduct military drills on its territory before the invasion and provided a staging ground for the invasion, giving Russia a strategic advantage with the shortest land route to Kyiv. This involvement has led to widespread condemnation and sanctions from Western countries.
• Domestic Political Consequences: The Belarusian government, led by President Alexander Lukashenko, has faced increased international scrutiny and criticism for its role in the conflict. Lukashenko's dependence on Russia has grown, and his regime has become more authoritarian, with limited freedom of the press and civil liberties. There have been mass protests against the government's involvement in the invasion, and opposition figures have been exiled or detained.
• Economic Impact: Belarus has faced economic consequences due to its involvement in the conflict. Western countries, including the European Union, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada, have imposed sanctions on Belarus, targeting individuals, government entities, and key sectors such as banking and exports. These sanctions aim to isolate Belarus economically and pressure the country to change its role in the conflict.
• Military and Security: Belarus's military and security landscape has been affected by the crisis. The country has become more closely aligned with Russia, participating in joint military exercises and allowing Russian troops to remain on its territory. There are concerns that Belarus could become more directly involved in the conflict, and its military forces have been placed on high alert.
• Social and Cultural Impact: The crisis has had a significant impact on Belarusian society and culture. There have been reports of Belarusian volunteers joining the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and some Belarusian athletes and cultural figures have spoken out against the conflict. The crisis has also affected daily life in Belarus, with reports of food inflation and economic challenges.
• Geopolitical Relations: Belarus's relations with other countries have been impacted by the crisis. Its ties with Russia have strengthened, but relations with Western nations have deteriorated. Belarus has been subjected to international isolation, with travel bans and restrictions on its participation in diplomatic initiatives such as the Eastern Partnership program.

The future of democratic Belarus

Belarus has been described as "Europe's last dictatorship", with President Alexander Lukashenko labelled "Europe's last dictator". The country has been led by a highly centralised and authoritarian government, with elections being rigged and human rights abuses being committed. Lukashenko has been in power since 1994, when the country held its first and only free election after independence.

However, there is hope for a democratic future in Belarus. In 2020, Lukashenko sought a sixth term in office, winning the election with 80% of the vote, which sparked mass protests. Neighbouring countries Poland and Lithuania do not recognise Lukashenko as the legitimate president, and the European Union, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States have all imposed sanctions on Belarus due to the rigged election and political oppression.

The Belarusian people have shown their desire for democracy and their opposition to Lukashenko's regime. In 2020, the largest opposition protests in the country's history took place, with thousands taking to the streets. This was met with a brutal crackdown, with mass arrests and torture of detainees. Despite the risks, Belarusians have continued to demonstrate against Lukashenko and his government, with anti-war protests taking place across the country in February 2022.

The Belarusian opposition, led by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, has been actively working towards a democratic Belarus. Tsikhanouskaya has condemned Lukashenko's participation in the Russian invasion of Ukraine and expressed her belief that Ukraine will win the war. She has also suggested that Lukashenko is no longer in full control of the Belarusian military.

There is also growing discontent within the Belarusian military, with reports of low-ranked soldiers opposing the invasion of Ukraine and officers stating they would risk mutiny if ordered to join the conflict. Additionally, there have been numerous acts of sabotage on the Belarusian railways, disrupting the movement of Russian military trains.

A democratic Belarus will require free and fair elections, respect for human rights and civil liberties, an independent judiciary, and a diverse and free media. It will also need to address the economic challenges the country is facing, including high inflation and the impact of sanctions. The path towards democracy will not be easy, but with the courage and determination of the Belarusian people and the support of the international community, a democratic future for Belarus is possible.

The consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster

The Chernobyl nuclear disaster, which occurred in April 1986, had far-reaching consequences for Belarus, which received about 70% of the radiation from neighbouring Ukraine. Here are four to six paragraphs detailing the impact of the disaster on the country:

Environmental Impact

The environmental fallout from the disaster was significant, with about one-fifth of Belarus's land suffering radioactive contamination. This contamination affected both farmland and forests, particularly in the southeastern regions of the country. The United Nations and other agencies have since worked to reduce radiation levels in these areas through the use of caesium binders and rapeseed cultivation.

Health Impact

The medical and psychological costs of the disaster were also substantial. There was an increase in birth defects and cancer cases, particularly thyroid cancer. The disaster also led to a declining birth rate, as people chose not to have children due to fears of birth defects.

Social and Economic Impact

The social and economic fabric of Belarus was also disrupted by the disaster. Entire communities had to be relocated, and traditional ways of life were upended, particularly in rural areas. The economic impact was felt across various sectors, including agriculture, with certain products becoming unsafe for consumption or export.

Long-Term Effects

The consequences of the disaster extended far beyond the initial months and years. Even decades later, the affected areas continued to deal with the legacy of Chernobyl, including ongoing health issues and environmental remediation efforts. The disaster also shaped public policy, with the government having to allocate resources to address the ongoing challenges posed by the radiation contamination.

International Response

The international community responded to the disaster with aid and support for those affected. Belarus received assistance from neighbouring countries and international organisations in dealing with the immediate aftermath and the long-term challenges. However, the disaster also highlighted the potential global impact of nuclear accidents and led to increased scrutiny of nuclear power and safety measures.

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