The Lingering Presence: Unraveling The Mystery Of Soldiers In Afghanistan

The United States' 20-year war in Afghanistan, its longest in history, came to an end on August 30, 2021, with the withdrawal of its troops from the country. The last US military planes left Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul, marking the completion of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. The evacuation, which began in July, airlifted over 120,000 people, including American citizens and vulnerable Afghans. The end of the war, however, left a sense of heartbreak as not everyone could be evacuated, and the remaining Americans and Afghan allies now face uncertainty and danger under Taliban rule.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan

The decision to withdraw was made by President Biden, who stuck to his decision to pull troops by the end of August 2021, despite pressure from lawmakers and other nations to extend the mission. The withdrawal came in the aftermath of an ISIS-K suicide bombing that killed 13 US service members and more than 200 Afghans. The US retaliated with airstrikes targeting Islamic extremists.

The evacuation process was chaotic and dangerous, with the US and its allies evacuating more than 120,000 people, including American citizens, third-country nationals, and vulnerable Afghans. The Taliban's rapid takeover of the country and the fall of the Afghan government took the US government by surprise, and the evacuation had to be expedited. The Taliban cooperated with the US during the closing of operations, establishing a perimeter outside the airfield to prevent people from entering during the departure.

The US State Department's review of the withdrawal found that the decisions of both the Trump and Biden administrations to end the military mission in Afghanistan had detrimental consequences and that there was insufficient consideration of worst-case scenarios. The report also criticised the lack of clear decisions regarding the evacuation of at-risk Afghans and the universe of people who would be included.

The withdrawal left between 100 and 200 Americans and tens of thousands of Afghan allies facing uncertainty and danger. The Taliban's return to power raised concerns about human rights abuses, particularly regarding women and girls' rights and freedoms. The US and the international community are now faced with the challenge of how to engage with the Taliban-led government while promoting stability and human rights in Afghanistan.

The future of those left behind

The US and its allies evacuated over 100,000 people, including American citizens and vulnerable Afghans, but it is estimated that hundreds of Americans and tens of thousands of at-risk Afghans were left behind. The State Department has said it will continue its efforts to help Americans and vulnerable Afghans leave the country, but the evacuation picture is unclear now that the US military is gone.

Those left behind face the threat of retaliation from the Taliban. This is especially true for women, who have been banned from schools, and minorities, who are increasingly under threat of violence and persecution. Those who worked with US and allied forces, such as translators, journalists, and women's rights advocates, are also in danger.

In addition to the human toll, the US also left behind approximately $7 billion worth of military equipment, which is now in the hands of the Taliban. This includes aircraft, vehicles, weapons, and other materials. The Taliban now have a sizable reservoir of combat power and have been parading US weapons through the streets of Afghanistan.

The future for those left behind in Afghanistan is difficult to predict, but it is clear that many individuals, especially those associated with the US and its allies, are at risk of retaliation from the Taliban and face an uncertain future.

The fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban

The US-Taliban deal, signed on February 29, 2020, is considered a critical factor in the collapse of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). The deal led to a significant reduction in US air attacks, depriving the ANSF of a crucial advantage in fighting the Taliban insurgency.

In the weeks leading up to the fall of Kabul, there was a sense of uncertainty and fear among the residents of the city. Many Afghans waited in long lines at banks to withdraw money, concerned about the fate of their savings under a new regime. There were also reports of chaos, with thieves and looters taking advantage of the situation. However, some locals, especially women, were fearful of the restoration of Taliban rule and felt betrayed and abandoned by the Afghan government and their NATO allies.

As the Taliban advanced towards Kabul, the US and its allies evacuated diplomatic personnel and citizens. On the day the Taliban entered Kabul, the US embassy cautioned its citizens about reports of the airport "taking fire" and instructed them to shelter in place. The US also deployed additional troops to provide security and assist in the evacuations.

The fall of Kabul led to the collapse of the Afghan government, with President Ashraf Ghani fleeing the country. The Taliban announced their intention to form an "open, inclusive Islamic government" and held their first official news conference in Kabul, pledging to ensure safety and maintain law and order.

The speed of the Taliban's territorial gains and the collapse of the Afghan government and security forces surprised US officials and allies. The Taliban's rapid offensive and the fall of Kabul were attributed to several factors, including intelligence failures, a more powerful Taliban, corruption within the Afghan government and security forces, cultural differences, and a lack of willpower among Afghan forces.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the fall of Kabul had significant consequences. It raised questions about the future of the country and the safety of those left behind, including Americans, Afghans who worked with the US, journalists, and women's rights activists. It also led to a regression in rights and freedoms for Afghans, particularly women, and a worsening humanitarian crisis.

The future of US-Taliban relations

The US has said it will continue to help Americans, US legal permanent residents, and Afghans leave the country and will continue to provide humanitarian aid. However, the US has suspended its diplomatic presence in Kabul and moved its embassy to Doha, Qatar. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that the US will work with the Taliban based on their actions, not just their words.

The Taliban has a history of human rights violations, particularly regarding women, girls, and minority communities. The international community, including the US, has demanded concessions on these issues before further discussions can take place. The Taliban has also pledged to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for terrorists, specifically ISIS-K, a sworn enemy of both the US and the Taliban.

The threat of Islamic State militants

The Islamic State Khorasan (ISK), also known as ISIS-K, is the Afghanistan affiliate of the larger Islamic State group. It emerged in 2015 and established a base of operations in the country's mountainous eastern regions. ISK is Salafi in its outlook and is militantly anti-Shia. It rejects both the Pakistani government and the Western-backed Afghan government as apostate regimes that ought to be overthrown and replaced.

From its founding, ISK has been fiercely critical of the Taliban, which it regards as insufficiently Islamic. The Taliban and ISK have clashed frequently, and the Taliban played a critical role in defeating ISK strongholds in rural Afghanistan, coordinating at times with U.S. forces. Following the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, ISK continued its attacks, this time targeting the Taliban as illegitimate governing authorities.

With the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, ISK is taking advantage of the Taliban government's divided attention and struggles to establish basic social services. Its ranks have been renewed by prisoner releases and prison breaks during the collapse of the Ashraf Ghani government, and it has stepped up the pace of urban attacks. According to United Nations reporting, ISK is "positioning itself as the sole pure rejectionist group in Afghanistan."

The U.S. and its Afghan partners have learned that defending urban areas against dedicated teams of small-cell terrorists is a daunting task, even for a well-resourced government. While ISK might seek to copy elements of the Taliban's insurgent strategy, it is unlikely to replicate their success. The group's Salafi ideology and embrace of violence against civilians will continue to alienate most Afghans, even religiously conservative Pashtun leaders.

A revitalized ISK would be disruptive and dangerous. It could modestly expand its territorial control, giving it the opportunity to extract rents and engage in coercive recruitment. It could also leverage attacks against the government to raise its profile. In theory, ISK could use safe havens and expanded resources to plan attacks against Western targets, but there are no indications that it is plotting to do so. Instead, it will likely remain focused on contesting control of the Afghan state.

ISK's campaign of attacks is shaping the Taliban's calculations in unhelpful ways. As the Taliban pivots to governance, its factionalization is becoming more apparent. Some leaders prefer a more accommodating posture toward foreign donor institutions and a more inclusive government, while others, notably Sirajuddin Haqqani, have pushed the government to adopt hardline positions. Facing a challenge from ISK, the Taliban worries about defections and a loss of ideological legitimacy, empowering hardline elements.

The departure of U.S. troops from Afghanistan has created a more permissive environment for terrorist groups. The U.S. government estimated that ISK could reconstitute its ability to conduct external operations against the U.S. within six to twelve months. This poses a significant threat, as ISK has already demonstrated its capacity to carry out deadly attacks.

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