The Pipeline Dreams Of Afghanistan: A Geopolitical Gamble

Afghanistan has been the proposed site of several oil and natural gas pipelines over the years, including the Afghanistan Oil Pipeline and the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) Gas Pipeline. The Afghanistan Oil Pipeline was a project proposed in the 1990s by several oil companies to transport oil from Central Asia through Afghanistan to Pakistan. However, due to political and security instability at the time, the project was dismissed. The TAPI pipeline, on the other hand, has been under development since the 1990s and is intended to transport natural gas from the Galkynysh Gas Field in Turkmenistan through Afghanistan, Pakistan, and finally to India. Construction on the TAPI pipeline began in Turkmenistan in 2015 and on the Afghanistan-Pakistan section in 2018, but as of 2023, construction has stalled due to increasing instability in the region.

The US has supported the TAPI pipeline for three decades

The US has supported the TAPI pipeline because it would allow the Central Asian republics to export energy to Western markets without relying on Russian routes. Then-US Ambassador to Turkmenistan Tracey Ann Jacobson noted that American companies may join the project, stating, "We are seriously looking at the project, and it is quite possible that American companies will join it." The US government has also backed the idea because it views the TAPI pipeline as a potential key to economic strength and independence for Central Asia.

The TAPI pipeline has been under construction since 2015, with the Turkmenistan section completed by 2019. However, the project has faced numerous delays due to political instability and security concerns, with construction on the Afghan side stalling since 2018. The Taliban has pledged to cooperate and not disrupt the project in areas they control, and Afghanistan has said it is ready to raise a special force to provide security for the pipeline.

The TAPI pipeline is expected to be 1,814 kilometres long with a capacity of 33 billion cubic metres of natural gas per year. The pipeline will have a diameter of 56 inches and a working pressure of 10,000 kPa. It will be constructed alongside the Kandahar–Herat Highway in western Afghanistan and then via Quetta and Multan in Pakistan before reaching the Indian town of Fazilka near the Pakistan-India border. The project is expected to cost $10 billion and will be developed by the Galkynysh – TAPI Pipeline Company Limited with the participation of the Asian Development Bank.

The project has faced challenges due to political instability and war

The TAPI pipeline project has faced challenges due to political instability and war in Afghanistan. The project, which aims to transport natural gas from the Galkynysh Gas Field in Turkmenistan through Afghanistan, Pakistan, and finally to India, has been in the works for over three decades. While it was first proposed in the early 1990s, construction has been stalled due to various issues, including political instability and conflict in the region.

Afghanistan has experienced prolonged periods of conflict and political upheaval, making it difficult to ensure the safety and feasibility of the pipeline project. The country's southern section, which is under the control of the Taliban, has posed a significant challenge to the project's progress. Despite the Taliban's assurances of support and security for the pipeline, the group's involvement has been controversial. The United States, which has backed the pipeline idea, invaded Afghanistan in 2001, driving the Taliban from power. This political instability and war delayed the construction of the pipeline.

In addition to political instability, the war in Afghanistan has directly impacted the pipeline's progress. The US-led invasion in 2001, which overthrew the Taliban regime, disrupted the project's negotiations and planning. The Taliban's return to power in 2021 has further complicated the situation, with concerns arising over their ability to provide adequate security and their commitment to the project.

The pipeline project has also faced challenges due to the volatile security situation in Afghanistan. In 2018, construction on the pipeline was halted due to security concerns after workers were killed by unknown assailants. Ensuring the safety of the pipeline and workers has been a significant challenge, with the Taliban pledging to guarantee security but falling short in the past.

Political instability and war have also impacted the project's funding. The estimated cost of the pipeline has increased over time, reaching up to $10 billion. However, raising the necessary funds has been challenging due to the unstable political and security environment in Afghanistan. Global energy majors have shown little enthusiasm for investing in the project due to the perceived risks.

Despite these challenges, there have been recent efforts to revive the pipeline project. Turkmenistan, Pakistan, and Afghanistan have continued negotiations, and the Afghan government has committed to providing security for the pipeline. While the project faces significant hurdles, there is hope that it can bring economic benefits and strengthen regional connectivity.

The US government has denied claims of a Taliban pipeline deal

The US government has denied claims that it is pushing for an oil pipeline deal with the Taliban, following the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline project. This allegation, which has been circulating on social media, has stoked anger toward President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.

The "Taliban pipeline deal" refers to the TAPI (Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India) pipeline project, which is a natural gas pipeline being developed by the Galkynysh – TAPI Pipeline Company Limited with participation from the Asian Development Bank. The project has been supported by the US government for three decades, but it does not have influence over its construction and is not a party to the deal.

The US State Department has denied facilitating a meeting between the Taliban and Turkmenistan regarding the TAPI pipeline, with a spokesperson stating:

> "The United States played no role in the Taliban's visit to Turkmenistan and is in no position to comment on those discussions. The U.S. Government is not providing any direct financial support to the TAPI project."

The TAPI pipeline was first proposed 30 years ago, and the Taliban, which controlled Afghanistan in the 1990s, was part of the initial negotiations. Construction was delayed due to political instability and the war that followed the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, which drove the Taliban from power.

While the US government has long supported the creation of a natural gas pipeline in Afghanistan and its Central Asian neighbors, there is no evidence that the Biden administration has explicitly advocated for the TAPI pipeline or personally promoted the deal. The US priority in Afghanistan is to achieve a just and durable peace, recognizing that peace and economic development are mutually reinforcing.

The TAPI pipeline is expected to cost up to $10 billion

The TAPI pipeline, also known as the Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline, is a natural gas pipeline that will transport natural gas from the Galkynysh Gas Field in Turkmenistan through Afghanistan into Pakistan and then to India. The project was first proposed in a 1995 Memorandum of Understanding between Turkmenistan and Pakistan, with Afghanistan and India joining in 2002 and 2010, respectively.

The high cost of the TAPI pipeline can be attributed to several factors, including the length of the pipeline, which will stretch over 1,100 miles (1,814 kilometers), and the need to construct it through challenging terrain in countries with varying geopolitical dynamics and security concerns. The pipeline will also require the construction of compressor stations and other technical infrastructure to maintain the necessary pressure and flow rate for the natural gas.

The TAPI pipeline is expected to have a diameter of 56 inches (1,420 millimeters) and a working pressure of 100 atm (10,000 kPa). It will have the capacity to transport 33 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas per year, with 5 bcm going to Afghanistan, and 14 bcm each to Pakistan and India. The pipeline is designed to be operational for 30 years, providing long-term energy security for over 1.5 billion people in the region.

The high cost of the TAPI pipeline has not deterred the participating countries, who see it as a strategic opportunity to enhance economic development and cooperation. The pipeline is also expected to bring peace and stability to the region by fostering interdependence among Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India. Additionally, the project aligns with Turkmenistan's foreign policy of "positive neutrality," allowing the country to diversify its export routes and reduce its economic dependence on a single partner, such as China or Russia.

Despite the potential benefits, the TAPI pipeline has faced challenges due to the changing geopolitical dynamics and security concerns in the region. Construction was delayed multiple times due to political instability and violence in Afghanistan, including the U.S. invasion in 2001 and the Taliban's advances in recent years. However, the Taliban has repeatedly pledged its support for the project and assured that it will not be targeted for attacks.

The TAPI pipeline is a massive economic venture that has the potential to benefit all countries involved. However, the successful completion of the project depends on overcoming security concerns, securing sufficient funding, and navigating the complex geopolitical landscape of the region.

The pipeline is seen as a modern continuation of the Silk Road

The Silk Road was a vast trade network that connected Eurasia and North Africa via land and sea routes. It was a network of commercial, cultural, and technological exchange routes that radiated from Central Asia. For 1,500 years, these routes allowed China to connect to the Mediterranean, playing a decisive role in the passage to the Modern Age.

The TAPI (Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India) Gas Pipeline, also known as the Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline, is a natural gas pipeline being developed by the Galkynysh – TAPI Pipeline Company Limited with participation from the Asian Development Bank. The pipeline will transport natural gas from the Galkynysh Gas Field in Turkmenistan through Afghanistan into Pakistan and then to India. Proponents of the project see it as a modern continuation of the Silk Road.

The TAPI pipeline is seen as a modern continuation of the Silk Road because it connects countries in Central and South Asia, similar to how the Silk Road facilitated trade and cultural exchange between regions. The pipeline will strengthen relations among India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan. It will also allow Central Asian countries to export energy to Western markets without relying on Russian routes.

The TAPI pipeline project has faced several challenges, including political instability, security concerns, and disagreements over transit fees. However, construction on the project started in Turkmenistan in 2015, and drilling in Afghanistan began in 2018. The pipeline is expected to be operational by 2019 and will be 1,814 km (1,127 mi) long.

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