Afghanistan's Precarious Peace: A Nation In Waiting

The situation in Afghanistan is a dire one, with the country facing a deteriorating humanitarian crisis, economic upheaval, widespread malnutrition, natural disasters, and political turmoil. The Taliban regime has imposed severe restrictions on women and girls, limiting their access to education, employment, and public life. The country is also grappling with the aftermath of the US withdrawal and the rise of terrorist groups such as ISIS and ISIL. The future of Afghanistan remains uncertain, with the Taliban's policies and actions drawing international condemnation and concern.

The Taliban's impact on human rights

Restrictions on Women's Rights and Freedoms:

• Women have been banned from working in most sectors, with exceptions in healthcare, primary education, and specific security institutions.
• Women are prohibited from appearing in public or travelling long distances without a male chaperone.
• Beauty salons have been forcibly closed, affecting women-owned businesses.
• Women are banned from participating in sports and visiting public parks.
• The ban on girls' education beyond primary school has been expanded, and international NGOs providing community-based education have been restricted.
• Women journalists have been targeted, with many leaving their jobs due to increasing restrictions.
• Women are required to wear a strict form of hijab and are restricted from wearing certain types of clothing.
• Women's access to healthcare, particularly sexual and reproductive healthcare, has been hindered.

Persecution of Ethnic and Religious Minorities:

• Ethnic groups, including Hazara, Uzbek, Turkmen, and Tajik communities, have faced marginalization, prejudice, forced evictions, and violence.
• Religious minorities, such as Shia, Sikhs, Hindus, Christians, and Ahmadiyya, have faced discrimination, marginalization, and restrictions on their religious events and celebrations.

Freedom of Expression and Media:

• Journalists and media outlets have faced restrictions, harassment, arbitrary arrests, and violence for expressing views critical of the Taliban or violating their rules.
• The space for freedom of expression and media has shrunk drastically, with many media outlets closing down.

Public Executions and Corporal Punishment:

The Taliban has enforced public executions and corporal punishment, including stoning and flogging, which violate international human rights standards.

Arbitrary Arrests, Detention, and Enforced Disappearances:

• People have been subjected to arbitrary arrests, unlawful detention, enforced disappearances, and torture for expressing dissent or criticising the Taliban.
• Human rights defenders, activists, and journalists have been particularly targeted for their work.

LGBTI Rights:

Consensual same-sex relations remain illegal and punishable by death. LGBTI individuals face discrimination, violence, threats, and arbitrary detention by the Taliban.

Access to Justice:

The Taliban has suspended or abolished existing laws and introduced a narrow interpretation of Sharia law, removing qualified judicial and legal professionals and replacing them with their preferred candidates.

The economic crisis

Afghanistan is facing a severe economic crisis, with the economy shrinking by 20-30% since the Taliban takeover in August 2021. The crisis has been caused by a combination of factors, including the abrupt cutoff of civilian and security aid, sanctions, the freezing of Afghanistan's foreign exchange reserves, and foreign banks' reluctance to do business with the country. The economic crisis has led to a humanitarian crisis, with acute malnutrition and food insecurity affecting almost half the population.

The Afghan economy was already deteriorating before the Taliban takeover due to severe drought, the COVID-19 pandemic, declining confidence in the previous government, falling international military spending, and advances by the Taliban. However, the situation worsened significantly after the Taliban took control. The cutoff of aid, amounting to more than $8 billion per year (40% of Afghanistan's GDP), dealt a severe blow to the economy. This was exacerbated by the freezing of Afghanistan's foreign exchange reserves and the reluctance of foreign banks to do business with the country due to concerns about sanctions.

The Humanitarian Crisis

The humanitarian crisis has disproportionately affected women and girls, who face greater obstacles in obtaining food, healthcare, and financial resources. Taliban policies that bar women from most paid jobs have devastated households where women were the sole or main earners. Nearly 100% of female-headed households face insufficient food consumption and are taking drastic measures to obtain food, such as selling vital household items or sending children to work.

The Impact on Women and Girls

The Taliban's restrictions on women's education and employment have also contributed to the economic crisis. Restricting women from working can result in an economic loss of up to $1 billion, or 5% of Afghanistan's GDP. The loss of income has made it even more difficult for families to afford food and other necessities.

The Way Forward

The economic and humanitarian crises in Afghanistan are interconnected, and addressing the economic crisis is crucial for improving the lives of Afghans. The international community has a role to play in providing support and aid to the country. However, the Taliban also needs to take responsibility and work towards improving the economic situation. This includes building on positive aspects of their economic management, appointing qualified officials to lead key economic agencies, and responding to international concerns.

Food insecurity

Afghanistan is facing a severe food crisis, with millions of Afghans on the brink of starvation. Decades of conflict, economic crises, and climate shocks have left over 15 million Afghans suffering from acute food insecurity. The situation is particularly dire for women and children, with malnutrition being a growing concern.

The recent escalation of conflict has thrown Afghan families into turmoil and uncertainty, destroying the country's economic growth and limiting opportunities. The war-torn country's economy, largely dependent on foreign funding, has struggled to recover due to international sanctions. The Taliban administration's financial and diplomatic isolation has further exacerbated the crisis.

According to the World Food Programme (WFP), nearly half of Afghanistan's population faces severe hunger, with 3 million on the brink of starvation. WFP's food assistance has been a lifeline for millions, providing emergency food and nutrition support to 23 million people in 2022. However, in 2023, the WFP was forced to cut food assistance due to funding shortages, putting millions more at risk of famine.

The crisis has been further compounded by recurrent droughts and the COVID-19 pandemic, driving up food costs and reducing the country's domestic food production. The impact of the crisis on women and girls is especially severe, with restrictions on their rights to education, work, and freedom of movement.

The situation in Afghanistan is critical, and the need for humanitarian aid is urgent. International organizations and NGOs are working to address the food crisis and improve food security, but the Taliban's cooperation is essential for the successful implementation of these efforts.

Climate shocks and natural disasters

Afghanistan is prone to intense and recurring natural hazards such as flooding, earthquakes, snow avalanches, landslides, and droughts due to its geographical location and years of environmental degradation. The country's low level of socioeconomic development and high dependence on agricultural livelihoods also make it extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

Afghanistan is among the top 10 countries experiencing extreme weather conditions and natural disasters. It ranks fourth on the list of countries most at risk of a crisis (INFORM Risk Index 2023) and eighth on the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index of countries most vulnerable and least prepared to adapt to climate change. The 2021 Global Climate Risk Index ranked Afghanistan as the sixth most affected country by climate-related threats and one of the least prepared against climate shocks.

The country's fragile ecosystem and poor socioeconomic development, coupled with the impacts of over four decades of war, lay the foundation for extreme climate vulnerability. Afghanistan has already witnessed several years of drought ravaging communities across rural areas, and intense flooding is likely to become more frequent due to changes in precipitation patterns. In 2022, the country endured its worst drought in 30 years and now faces its third consecutive year of drought. At least 60% of the population depends on rain-fed agriculture, but changes in rain and snow patterns are severely eroding livelihood practices, worsening food insecurity, malnutrition, and disease.

The mean annual temperature in Afghanistan rose by 0.6°C between 1960 and 2008 and by a further 1.2°C between 2009 and 2016, intensifying glacier and snow melt, which provide water to rivers during the summer. Most of the country's major rivers originate in the central highlands (Bamyan and Daikundi Provinces), but these water sources are now significantly affected by erratic rains and changes in snowfall amounts and timing. Recurrent droughts are drying up surface water sources and depleting groundwater levels, further exacerbating water scarcity.

Environmental degradation, including unrelenting deforestation, land degradation, and pasture degradation, is also contributing to the country's vulnerability to climate shocks and natural disasters. Communities are struggling with reduced incomes as farming becomes increasingly challenging due to recurrent droughts, drying land, severe flooding, deforestation, desertification, and excessive use of farmland and pasture. Desertification has affected more than 75% of the total land area in the country's northern, western, and southern regions, reducing vegetation cover and accelerating land degradation.

The convergence of these worsening conditions is forcing people to adopt negative coping strategies, such as child marriage and child labour, and contributing to internal and external migration. Afghanistan is now facing one of the world's largest and most severe humanitarian crises, with a record 29.2 million people requiring humanitarian assistance to survive. Nearly half the population is food insecure, and the country also has one of the highest rates of malnutrition, affecting both children and pregnant and nursing mothers.

The future of journalism

Female journalists are particularly at risk, with the Taliban's restrictions on women's rights making it ""completely impossible" for them to work. Many female journalists have fled the country or have been forced to stop working, resulting in a loss of diverse perspectives and a decline in the quality of journalism. The Taliban's rise to power has also led to a decrease in press freedom, with journalists facing threats, violence, and intimidation. According to the International Federation of Journalists (IFJ), there are still about 1,300 journalists in Afghanistan, including 220 women, mostly in Kabul. The IFJ has been working to evacuate journalists and provide support and resources to those who remain.

Afghan journalist Samiullah Mahdi, who is now based in Turkey, expresses hope for the future of journalism in Afghanistan. He believes that the Taliban will find it difficult to control the media and the flow of information as they did during their previous rule. He attributes this to the societal changes that have taken place over the last two decades, including the development of an independent media landscape with more than 100 TV channels. While the future of journalism in Afghanistan remains uncertain, there is a glimmer of hope that the Taliban's attempts to stifle press freedom will be met with resistance and perseverance from journalists and the international community.

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