The Unfathomable Victory: Pakistan's Strategic Triumph In Afghanistan

Pakistan's role in the Afghanistan War has been described as a double game. Nominally, Pakistan was a US partner in the war against Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. However, elements of the Pakistani military and intelligence services provided sanctuary, funding, and training for the Taliban and its allies in the lethal terrorist group known as the Haqqani network. Pakistan's interests did not include a large American military presence on its border, an autonomous Afghanistan with a democratic government it could not control, or a strong and centralized military. Instead, Pakistan’s goal in Afghanistan was to create a sphere of influence to block its arch-nemesis, India.

Pakistan's role as a safe haven for the Taliban

Pakistan has played a significant role in providing safe havens and support for the Taliban, both during its initial rise to power in the 1990s and following its resurgence after being toppled by American and allied forces in 2001.

The Pakistani government, particularly its intelligence service, the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI), has provided critical sanctuary, training camps, military and diplomatic advice, and assistance with fundraising for the Taliban. The country's porous border with Afghanistan has facilitated the transit of fighters and weapons, with Pakistani military officers even operating under cover with Taliban forces on the battlefield.

After the Taliban regime was overthrown in 2001, the group's leadership fled into Pakistan, where they were protected by the ISI and began to rebuild. Pakistan's support was critical to the Taliban's survival and revival, enabling them to resume the war in Afghanistan by 2004.

In addition to providing sanctuary, Pakistan has actively supported the Taliban through various means. This includes soliciting funding, bankrolling operations, providing diplomatic support, arranging training and recruitment of fighters, planning and directing offensives, and supplying ammunition, fuel, and combat support. Private-sector actors in Pakistan, including trucking cartels and import-export companies, have also contributed to the Taliban's financial and logistical capabilities.

Pakistan's support for the Taliban stems from its desire to limit India's influence in Afghanistan and cultivate proxy groups within the country. Pakistan also seeks to prevent an unstable Afghanistan that could become a safe haven for anti-Pakistan militant groups. Additionally, Pakistan's military and intelligence apparatus benefit from maintaining power and influence over Afghanistan's political landscape.

Despite pressure and punitive measures from the United States and other countries, Pakistan has been reluctant to fully sever its ties with the Taliban. This is due to a fear of retaliation from militant groups, a desire to maintain influence in the region, and a lack of control over the groups it has sponsored. Pakistan's role as a safe haven and supporter of the Taliban has been a significant factor in the group's resilience and ability to carry out attacks in Afghanistan.

Pakistan's support of the Taliban as a hedge against NATO withdrawal

Pakistan's leverage over the Taliban is crucial in the region's stability. Pakistan will have a relationship with the Pashtun future of southern and eastern Afghanistan and will have an asset in the struggle for post-NATO Afghanistan. However, Pakistan's support for the Taliban is not without risks. The resurgence of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a group responsible for killing tens of thousands of Pakistani civilians and attacking the country's security forces, is a significant concern. Additionally, a Taliban-run state on its border will likely embolden Taliban and other Islamist militants within Pakistan itself.

The complex dynamics between Pakistan, the Taliban, and NATO forces have had a significant impact on the Afghanistan War. Pakistan's role as a safe haven and logistical supply line for the Taliban while also serving as a major logistical line for NATO forces highlights the country's strong leverage on both sides of the war. Pakistan's actions have influenced the war's outcome and continue to shape the region's political and security landscape.

Pakistan's provision of a logistical supply line for NATO forces

The supply routes from Pakistan offered a more cost-effective alternative to air transport, which was significantly more expensive. The routes typically originated from the port of Karachi and followed two main paths. One route crossed the Khyber Pass, entered Afghanistan at Torkham, and continued to Kabul. This route was approximately 1,000 miles long. The other route traversed through Balochistan Province, crossed the border at Chaman, and terminated at Kandahar in southern Afghanistan.

Despite their strategic importance, the Pakistani supply routes were unreliable and vulnerable to attacks and disruptions by the Taliban and other insurgent groups. Attacks on supply trucks and tankers, as well as incidents involving NATO aircraft, frequently disrupted the flow of supplies. Pakistan also leveraged these supply lines as a bargaining chip in its negotiations with NATO and the United States, occasionally suspending supply operations to exert pressure.

In response to the vulnerabilities and disruptions associated with the Pakistani supply routes, NATO sought to diversify its supply network. The Northern Distribution Network (NDN) was established, utilising routes through Central Asian countries and Russia to transport supplies into Afghanistan. While costlier and longer, these alternative routes reduced NATO's dependence on Pakistan and provided a crucial backup option when the Pakistani routes were closed.

Pakistan's role in the creation of the Taliban

The ISI provided support to Mullah Omar, the founder of the Taliban, when he established the organisation in Kandahar. Omar had previously been trained by the ISI in the 1980s at one of its camps for the mujahideen fighting the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. The ISI also provided military experts and advisers to the Taliban, as well as oil for its economy and a supply route to the outside world.

Pakistan was one of only three countries, along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, that recognised the Taliban's Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan as the legitimate government of Afghanistan in the late 1990s. During this period, Pakistan provided the Taliban regime in Kabul with hundreds of advisers and experts to run its tanks, aircraft, and artillery. They also recruited thousands of Pakistani Pashtuns to man the Taliban's infantry and sent small units of its Special Services Group commandos to help in combat with the Northern Alliance.

In addition to military and logistical support, Pakistan played a crucial role in fundraising for the Taliban, both directly and by soliciting funds from other sources. Private actors in Pakistan, including companies and individuals, also contributed significantly to the Taliban's finances by purchasing and supplying munitions and equipment.

The ISI's support for the Taliban continued even after the American invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, which led to the Taliban leadership fleeing to Pakistan. With the ISI's help, they rebuilt their infrastructure and gradually stepped up attacks on NATO and Afghan forces. The ISI maintained close ties with the Taliban and accompanied them on missions inside Afghanistan.

Pakistan's support for the Taliban has had significant consequences, both for the region and for Pakistan itself. The Taliban's seizure of power in Afghanistan has created a haven for terrorist groups like al-Qaeda and has led to a deterioration of the human rights situation, particularly for women and girls. Additionally, the Afghan Taliban's relationship with the Pakistani Taliban, or Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP), has posed a serious security threat to Pakistan, as the TTP seeks to create an independent Pashtunistan.

While Pakistan's government and military generally favoured a Taliban victory in Afghanistan, there are differing views within these institutions, and the influence of the ISI and the military may wane under the current Pakistan Army chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, who is reportedly more cautious about the Taliban's potential to destabilise the country.

Pakistan's provision of a safe haven for the Saudi-American alliance behind the mujahideen

The Pakistani military and intelligence services, particularly the ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence agency), played a significant role in offering sanctuary, funding, and training to the Taliban and affiliated groups such as the Haqqani network. This support included providing safe havens in Pakistani borderlands, particularly in the city of Quetta, where wounded fighters received medical treatment, and the Haqqanis were allowed to run lucrative businesses. The ISI also provided the Taliban with international assets, such as Pakistani passports, elevating their status.

In the 1980s, Pakistan served as the base for the CIA's covert operation to defeat the Soviet army in Afghanistan. This history of collaboration positioned Pakistan as a critical ally to the US in the war on terror following 9/11. However, Pakistan played a "double game," occasionally helping to track and detain al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders while simultaneously providing support to the Taliban.

The US provided Pakistan with over $20 billion in military assistance between 2001 and 2011, but this aid began to decrease after the killing of Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan, in 2011. The discovery of bin Laden's presence in Pakistan, and the subsequent suspension of military aid, strained the relationship between the two countries.

Despite the complexities and shifting dynamics of the US-Pakistan relationship, Pakistan's role as a safe haven and logistical supply line for the mujahideen and, later, the Taliban, was a significant factor in the war in Afghanistan.

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