The Complex Presence Of China In Afghanistan's Future

China has been keeping a close eye on Afghanistan, especially since the Taliban's takeover. While China has publicly celebrated the U.S.'s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, declaring it as proof of America's decline, experts suggest that China's enthusiasm for involvement in the war-torn country is overstated. China's main concern is security, as it shares a tiny border with Afghanistan and fears the rise of Islamic extremism in its far west, particularly in the Xinjiang region. China has also long been wary of the Taliban's ideological agenda and has sought assurances that Afghanistan will not become a safe haven for militant groups. In addition, China has economic interests in Afghanistan, with its eye on the country's estimated $1 trillion in mineral deposits. However, China's previous investments in Afghanistan, such as the Mes Aynak copper project, have stalled due to security issues and infrastructure constraints. Thus, while China may seek to enhance its influence in Afghanistan, it is likely to proceed with caution, focusing on managing threats and stabilizing the region.

China's interests in Afghanistan

Economic Interests:

• Resource Extraction: China is interested in extracting Afghanistan's abundant natural resources, particularly minerals such as copper, iron, and lithium. Chinese state-owned enterprises see Afghanistan as a source of resources to fuel their economy.
• Infrastructure Development: China wants to help build infrastructure in Afghanistan to further its regional economic expansion. They see the country as a prime location for new highways and railways that would facilitate trade within the region.
• Belt and Road Initiative: Afghanistan is a potential link in China's Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to build roads, ports, and other infrastructure to extend Chinese influence across Central and South Asia.

Security Interests:

• Countering Extremism: China is concerned about the presence of extremist groups in Afghanistan, such as the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which it believes could pose a threat to its western regions, particularly Xinjiang. They aim to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for militants and want the Taliban to break ties with such groups.
• Regional Stability: China worries that instability in Afghanistan could spill over into neighbouring countries, especially Pakistan, and disrupt its economic ambitions in the region. They seek to promote stability in Afghanistan to address their security concerns.

Geopolitical Interests:

• US Influence: China wants to restrict US influence in the region and sees the US withdrawal as an opportunity to fill the void left by the US. They perceive the US presence in Afghanistan as a geopolitical threat and aim to increase their influence as the US scales down its military presence.
• Relations with Neighbours: China is interested in improving relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan, encouraging them to form a crisis prevention mechanism to deal with issues related to jihadist groups. They also seek to keep regional rival India at bay by limiting its influence in Afghanistan.

The Taliban's relationship with China

China's relationship with the Taliban is complex and multifaceted, with a history spanning decades. While China has not officially recognised the Taliban as the rulers of Afghanistan, it has been one of the group's most active international partners since their return to power in 2021. Here is an overview of the Taliban's relationship with China:

• Historical Context: China has a long history of engagement with Afghanistan, dating back to the Silk Road during the Han Dynasty. More recently, during the Taliban's first stint in power in the 1990s, China was one of the few countries that maintained diplomatic relations. However, tensions arose due to China's concerns about Uyghur militants operating in Afghanistan.
• Security Concerns: China's primary interest in Afghanistan revolves around security and stability. China fears that Afghanistan could become a safe haven for militant groups, including Uyghur extremists, that pose a threat to its interests and territorial integrity. This concern has only increased in recent years, particularly in the restive Xinjiang region, where China has been accused of committing human rights abuses against Uyghur Muslims.
• Pragmatic Engagement: Despite their ideological differences, China and the Taliban have a pragmatic relationship based on mutual self-interest. China recognises the Taliban's role in Afghanistan's political future and seeks to engage with them to protect its security interests. Meanwhile, the Taliban views China as a crucial source of investment and international legitimacy.
• Economic Opportunities: China has significant economic interests in Afghanistan, particularly in the country's vast mineral resources, estimated to be worth trillions of dollars. Chinese companies have signed deals with the Taliban, including a 25-year oil extraction contract worth up to $540 million. However, security concerns and infrastructure challenges have hindered China's ability to fully exploit these opportunities.
• Diplomatic Manoeuvring: China has carefully navigated its diplomatic relations with the Taliban, stopping short of formal recognition. Instead, it has appointed an ambassador to Kabul and engaged in talks with Taliban leaders, seeking assurances that Afghanistan will not become a base for extremist groups. China's approach is driven by a desire to stabilise the region and prevent the spillover of extremism into neighbouring countries.
• Regional Dynamics: China's involvement in Afghanistan is part of its broader strategy in South and Central Asia. It seeks to increase its influence in the region and counter the influence of its rivals, including the United States. Additionally, China's relationship with the Taliban has implications for its relations with other regional powers, such as Russia, Pakistan, and India.
• Limitations and Risks: While China seeks to enhance its influence in Afghanistan, it is cautious about becoming too deeply entangled. China recognises the risks of Afghanistan becoming a "graveyard of empires" and is wary of following in the footsteps of the Soviet Union and the United States. Moreover, China is concerned about the potential backlash from engaging with an extremist group while cracking down on Uyghurs in Xinjiang.

China's economic interests in Afghanistan

China has a variety of economic interests in Afghanistan, including:

Natural Resources

Afghanistan is rich in natural resources, including lithium, cobalt, copper, gold, natural gas, coal, and oil. The country has 16 trillion cubic feet of gas, 500 billion barrels of liquified natural gas, and 1.6 trillion barrels of crude oil. The total estimated value of Afghanistan’s natural resources is $1 trillion, which was a source of attraction for China after the U.S. exit. China is particularly interested in the Mes Aynak copper mine in Wardak Province, central Afghanistan, and oil extraction in the northern provinces of Farvab and Sar-e-Pol.

Belt and Road Initiative

Afghanistan is a vital state for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as it lies at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has expressed the PRC’s desire to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to Afghanistan and include the country in BRI activities.

Market for Exports

Afghanistan is also a market for the export of Chinese goods, which further encourages Beijing to remain engaged with the country.

Regional Security

China has economic interests in regional security in Afghanistan, as instability could threaten Chinese nationals and investments in neighbouring countries such as Pakistan. Beijing is particularly concerned about the rise of Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in the Afghanistan-Pakistan regions.

China's security concerns in Afghanistan

China's primary security concerns in Afghanistan revolve around the issue of terrorism and preventing its spillover into China. Here are the key points detailing China's security concerns in Afghanistan:

• Stability and Extremism: China's fundamental interest in Afghanistan is stability, as chaos and a power vacuum can lead to the rise of Islamic fundamentalism, threatening domestic security, particularly in Xinjiang. China aims to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a safe haven for militant groups, including the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which seeks to liberate Xinjiang and impose an Islamic rule.
• Border Security: China seeks to ensure that its border with Afghanistan is secure to prevent violent extremists from entering its territory. It relies on the Taliban and also coordinates with neighboring countries like Tajikistan and Pakistan to enhance border security.
• Uyghur Militant Groups: China wants the Taliban to eliminate Uyghur militant groups operating in Afghanistan. While China has exaggerated the threat posed by Uyghurs, it is concerned about potential ties between Uyghur groups and international terrorist networks.
• Citizen and Investment Protection: China aims to protect its citizens and investments in Afghanistan. However, the lack of security and stability in the country makes it challenging for China to secure its people and projects.
• Regional Stability: China worries about the spillover effects of instability in Afghanistan on neighboring countries, particularly Pakistan. It fears that a destabilized Afghanistan could lead to increased militant activity in the region, impacting its economic and political interests.
• U.S. Withdrawal: China is concerned about the implications of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, which could create a power vacuum and lead to further instability. It prefers a responsible withdrawal that does not destabilize the region.
• Geopolitical Competition: China views the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan as a geopolitical threat, establishing a foothold in the heart of Eurasia. However, it also recognizes the benefits of the U.S. presence in countering anti-China terrorist groups.

China's diplomatic ties with the Taliban

China's interests in developing these diplomatic ties are twofold. Firstly, China seeks to revive business ventures inside Afghanistan. The Afghan economy is highly dependent on foreign aid from Western donors, which will almost certainly be cut off, so investment from China, which is unlikely to be accompanied by lectures on human rights, will be welcomed by the Taliban.

Secondly, the relationship is predicated on each side not interfering in the other's internal affairs. For Beijing, this means that the Taliban cannot export extremism into China's Xinjiang region, which shares a border with Afghanistan, or condemn the Chinese government's treatment of Uyghur Muslims. In return, China will not question the Taliban's human rights abuses unless Chinese citizens are involved.

China's pragmatic relationship with the Taliban is driven by security concerns. As a direct neighbour of Afghanistan, China's security depends on the Taliban. Beijing is also concerned about the potential for Afghanistan to become a safe haven for militant groups targeting China.

While China has been seeking to increase its influence in Afghanistan, it is wary of becoming too entangled in the country, which is seen as a strategic trap that has diminished other great powers. China's investments in Afghanistan are also limited by security concerns and the lack of infrastructure.

In January 2024, China became the first country to accept the credentials of a Taliban-appointed ambassador, although it clarified that this did not mean official recognition of the Taliban government. This move was seen as a major diplomatic victory for the Taliban, which has struggled for global recognition due to its imposition of restrictions on the rights and freedoms of women.

China has also been pursuing business deals with the Taliban government, including a 25-year oil extraction contract worth up to $540 million over three years.

Frequently asked questions